NFL Record Plays, Trench Plays & CFB System Play

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman look at some NFL plays this week based on our Bettor Day record article, as well as the Eagles losing RT Lane Johnson to retirement. Plus a big System Play on this weeks College Football Schedule, to play or not to play?

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📊 RECORDS TELL THE STORY

Yesterday's article — You Are What Your Opponent's Record Says You Are — looked at every team's opponents and how those opponents have done in their other games. We threw out the head-to-head results.

🐬 THE 0-4 DOLPHINS: A HISTORICAL FOOTNOTE

The article flagged Miami as a team the schedule has made look worse than it is. Their four opponents are 11-1 in games not involving the Dolphins, and 15-1 overall.

📜 The Historical Context

Bearman: "They were the first team since 1986, and only the second since the Super Bowl era began in 1967, where their first four opponents were ALL UNDEFEATED when they played them.

The only loss came when the Raiders and Chiefs played each other. So in theory, except for when two of them played each other, NOT ONE of the Dolphins' opponents has lost a game."

But He's Not Making Excuses

"I'll start by saying they're a BAD FOOTBALL TEAM. I've seen every play of every game. People want to scream moral victory because they kept it close against the Chiefs and the Vikings. I'M NOT A MORAL VICTORY GUY. The record is 0-4.

Are there glimpses? The defense played very well against Kansas City. The defense played EXCEPTIONAL against Minnesota — didn't allow a touchdown. NOT MANY TEAMS CAN SAY THEY DIDN'T ALLOW A TOUCHDOWN LAST WEEK.

But the offense is HOPELESS. No receivers to throw to. Their best one, Caleb Douglas, has been out two weeks. De'Von Achane is out for the season. All due respect to Ollie Gordon — you're not winning many games with him. Malik Willis is doing what he can."

⭐ THE PLAY: DON'T LAY 7.5 WITH THE BENGALS

Cincinnati -7.5 at Miami.

The Bengals Are in the "Records Worth Questioning" Category

Bearman: "We'd agree the Bengals are probably not as good as people thought. Losing the way they lost to Pittsburgh, and getting pretty much DOMINATED by Jacksonville, makes that 2-0 start look weak."

🕐 THE BALL CONTROL ARGUMENT

"What the Dolphins have done well — and there aren't many things — is play the TIME OF POSSESSION game.

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. When you're pretending you're playing with a twenty-point lead and you're drawing up fifteen to seventeen play drives, it's not going to WIN you games. But it keeps the other team off the field.

How did you almost beat the Chiefs? THE CHIEFS NEVER HAD THE BALL. How did you hold the Vikings down? The Vikings didn't have the ball that often. Even though the Niners scored on every possession, the Dolphins still didn't give them many — in that first half, EACH TEAM HAD TWO POSSESSIONS.

Getting the big number is good for a team that plays ball control drives. This isn't a team that scores in thirty seconds. Every scoring drive they have is five to seven minutes."

Plus: Cincinnati is banged up at receiver with both Higgins and Chase out. And it'll be hot in Miami, with the Dolphins in whites forcing the Bengals into dark uniforms.

⭐ THE BETTER ANGLE: THE TEAM TOTAL

"I was correct on the Dolphins team total UNDER 13.5 this past week. And by the way — IF YOU TOOK DOLPHINS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 13.5 IN ALL FOUR GAMES, YOU'RE 4-0. They have yet to score more than thirteen points in any game.

Let's put it this way: I WOULD NOT LAY THE SEVEN AND A HALF with Cincinnati. If forced to pick a side, I'd take the Dolphins. But I'd also look at the team totals."

🦅 LANE JOHNSON RETIRES — AND THE EAGLES ARE FALLING APART

The surprise announcement came yesterday. He was a late scratch in week four for "personal reasons."

Also out: Saquon Barkley. Tank Bigsby. DeVonta Smith. They're down to Will Shipley and a third-string back.

📊 THE LANE JOHNSON NUMBERS

And What It Does to Jalen Hurts (since 2020)

🚨 BEARMAN: THIS COULD BE A BLOW-UP SITUATION

First you lose both coordinators after winning the Super Bowl. Then you get rid of AJ Brown — AJ Brown's the problem. Then you get rid of the coordinator again, we're going to fix the offense. IT'S TERRIBLE. Now the defense doesn't look good either.

They went 0-FOR-13 ON THIRD DOWNS last week.

It could be one of those let's stop and reset situations. Now, Howie's never going to let them tank all the way down. They're not a four-win team — that's not what the Eagles do. But you could be sitting at an ugly situation, both there AND in LA with the Chargers, where you thought you had a nucleus and the time frame sped up and ended in disaster."

The Division Caveat

"They also could win that division, because the division still STINKS. I'm not buying the Giants just yet — when you're almost losing to Arizona and Tennessee on the last play, if you had competent passers you could be 1-3. And the Cowboys are a field goal away from being 3-1."

⭐ THE HUMAN ATM, WEEK FIVE: FADE THE EAGLES RUNNING BACK

Jaguars -7 over the Eagles in London 

The Record

"I fade the opponent of the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'M 4-0 DOING IT THIS YEAR with the running backs. IT DOESN'T MATTER THE NUMBER."

The Jacksonville Rush Defense

"I'm going to fade whoever the running back is. I may not even get a line — I don't know what Shipley's number will be. But I'm not scared to go under it.

And forget who the back might be. EVEN WITH SAQUON BARKLEY, they have one of the worst rushing offenses in the league this year. Terrible pass offense. We didn't think it could get any worse."

Also on His Card

The Eagles team total under. And the Jaguars -7.5: "I'm not ruling it out, but that line is just going to continue to grow. The more people find out about Lane Johnson, the more the number grows."

📊 THE TRENCH REPORT AUDIT

The NFL Trench Report updates every Wednesday. The College Football version updates every Tuesday.

⭐ THE FINDING: WHEN THE TRENCH REPORT FAVORS A DOG

When an UNDERDOG shows up in the TOP 5 mismatches:

"When the Trench Report favors a dog in one of the top five mismatches of the week, you definitely want to lean toward that dog."

🏈 THE COLLEGE VERSION: 25-0 STRAIGHT UP

The top five mismatches are 25-0 straight up this season.

"They're all favorites — and the majority of the time they're SIZABLE favorites. Because it's college football, when there's a huge talent mismatch in the trenches, those teams are just overall better."

This Week's Top Five

⭐ The One Reasonably Lined Game: Boise State -6.5

Bearman: "Boise State has the Group of Six playoff berth in their sights — nobody's fooling themselves thinking it's going to be Fresno. Should they announce the playoff top 25 tomorrow, Boise could potentially be in it. Fresno's not.

It's on the road in Fresno, so it's a little dicey. But hey — LIVE WITH THE TRENCH REPORT, DIE WITH THE TRENCH REPORT, right?"

🐘 THE SYSTEM FLIP: #6 ALABAMA (-1.5) OVER #2 GEORGIA

This became a system play because the FAVORITE FLIPPED. Every look-ahead line through last week had Georgia favored. Georgia opened as a two-point favorite. Now Alabama is -1.5.

📊 THE SYSTEM RECORD (since 2021)

Two top-25 teams where the LOWER-ranked team is favored over the HIGHER-ranked team:

Narrowed to Two TOP TEN Teams

And Narrowed Again to Lines Under a Field Goal

"Any way you slice it, it's just good numbers for the favorites."

⚔️ BUT BEARMAN IS FLIPPING TO GEORGIA

And this is a man who has backed Alabama EVERY WEEK this season.

"I've been riding Alabama all year. I think they're a lot better than people thought preseason when they were a fringe playoff team. Keelon Russell is awesome, I love him.

But they're playing the Georgia Bulldogs, who I think are THE BEST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. I said that a couple of weeks ago and I'll keep saying it. If you're going to break up this little Big Ten party they've had with national titles the last three years, I THINK IT'S THE GEORGIA BULLDOGS WHO DO IT.

I don't understand the line move other than home field and public plays. If you'd asked me what the line should be, I'd have said GEORGIA BY TWO OR TWO AND A HALF — and that's exactly where it opened."

🔑 The Tale of the Tape

"If you do the head-to-head chart — they both have wonderful offenses, both have good quarterbacks, both have good coaches. You go down the list and you get to DEFENSE. AND ONE HAS A CHECK MARK AND ONE DOESN'T.

Georgia has the defense that can stop Alabama. DOES ALABAMA HAVE THE DEFENSE THAT CAN STOP GEORGIA?

There's a reason my best play of the week last week was the Alabama–Mississippi State OVER. Alabama can't stop anybody and Mississippi State can't stop anybody. GEORGIA CAN."

The Weight of the Flip

"For me — who's been on Alabama literally all season, including when they didn't cover against Florida State — to flip to the other side tells you how much I think Georgia is good. And this is coming from a FLORIDA GRAD."

⛈️ One More Variable

"There are reports they're thinking about MOVING THE GAME because of a hurricane that may or may not hit the Alabama area. The wind could be dicey. The rain could be dicey."

📈 The Historical Split

Kalen DeBoer is 2-1 against Georgia as Alabama's head coach — he won BOTH regular season meetings and lost the SEC Championship Game in December 2025, where "Georgia absolutely undressed them."

🏈 ANOTHER TOP 25 MATCHUP

#21 UCLA at #13 Oregon (-11.5)

Bearman: "TOO MANY POINTS. Oregon has not shown me anything at all. Yes, they beat USC — in USC, with the backup quarterback playing half the game. That's what USC does, they lose those games.

Dante Moore is doubtful. If he does clear protocol, he's coming off what happened. Raola is a great quarterback, but this is his FIRST START.

UCLA has been good. I would not lay the points — I'd take them. Oregon's defense has not proven they can stop anybody, including USC. Oregon probably wins this, but it is NOT a blowout by any stretch. This has 31-28 written all over it, which is right at that total."

⭐ THE RED RIVER RIVALRY: TEXAS -8.5, TOTAL 39.5

"This game is always weird. Every time you think you've got it figured out that one team is significantly better — THE OTHER TEAM WINS."

The Play: The Under

"Texas is the better team here. But I'm not laying 8.5 against that Oklahoma defense — one of the top ten defenses in the country that I have played UNDERS with.

Arch Manning, yeah, they came back and beat Ohio State. Congrats. THEY STILL DON'T LOOK GOOD. I'm taking the 8.5. I'm not buying that Texas is the best team in the country.

Oklahoma has the defense that stops people not named Georgia. That said, Johnny Matear handed Georgia fourteen points. They just can't score — and they're not going to score against Texas.

I'm not going to ignore that 39.5. There's a very good chance that by Friday I'm on the under. I THINK THIS IS A 17-10 GAME. UNDER 39.5. BOOK IT."

📉 THE TOTAL IS HISTORIC

Going back to 2006, this is the LOWEST total we've seen in this game — and only the second time it's been under 45.

📅 ON BETTING WITH BEARMAN

A special guest joins the podcast later today: Scott Seidenberg. The Future of the Week drops in today's newsletter — "hint hint, it's related to the Monday Night Football action we just saw." The full college and NFL slate comes Friday at BearmanBets.com.

And catch him Saturday mornings on SportsGrid College Football, 10 to 12.

For the full data, databases, Trench Reports, Game Centers and HQs — become a BettorDay Insider or Premium member at BettorDay.com or in the mobile app. Compare tiers →