Evaluating NFL Schedule's After 4 Weeks
Bill Parcells said it best: "You are what your record says you are." It's blunt and it's honest. Four weeks into a season, it can also be misleading.
A 3-1 record built on beating bad teams is not the same as 3-1 against the best teams. The standings treat them the same. We shouldn't, especially when we're betting on them.
So we took every team's opponents and looked at how those opponents have done in their other games. We threw out the head-to-head results on purpose. When you beat a team, you've made its record worse, and your schedule looks easier than it really was.
Take the Broncos for example. Denver has played the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams and 49ers. In games that didn't involve Denver, those four teams are a combined 11-1.
Here's what the numbers say through Week 4.
The 3-1 Teams That Haven't Proven Much
Five of the league's eight 3-1 teams have played opponents who are .333 or worse in their other games.
Buffalo Bills (3-1). Opponents: 3-9, tied for the softest in the NFL. The Bills beat Houston (0-4), Detroit and the Chargers (0-4). They needed a late push to get past the winless Texans 36-31 in week 1. They turned it over five times against the Chargers and still won. Then New England beat them 29-26 in Orchard Park. Buffalo is talented. But 3-1 has earned the Bills a price their results don't back up yet.
Seattle Seahawks (3-1). Opponents: 3-9. The defending champs beat New England by three in the opener and handled Arizona. They lost a shootout in Washington and held off the 0-4 Chargers on Sunday. Not one opponent has a winning record.
Las Vegas Raiders (3-1). Opponents: 4-8. The three teams the Raiders have beaten, Miami, the Chargers and New Orleans, are a combined 1-11. The one good team they played, Kansas City, beat them at home.
New York Giants (3-1). Opponents: 4-8. The Giants' wins came over Dallas, Tennessee and Arizona, who are 3-9 overall. The one time they saw a good team, the Rams beat them 28-6 (the game Jaxson Dart got hurt).
Baltimore Ravens (3-1). Opponents: 4-8. Baltimore beat Indianapolis and Dallas and edged winless Tennessee 24-18 (Lamar got hurt). Its loss came at home to New Orleans, the same Saints team Atlanta just beat 45-24.
The Undefeated: One Real Resume, Two Question Marks
There are three 4-0 teams, and only one has beaten a schedule with a winning record.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-0). Opponents: 7-5. The Chiefs beat Denver by 21, got past Indianapolis and won in Las Vegas against a Raiders team that was also unbeaten. This 4-0 is as legitimate as it gets.
San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings (both 4-0). Opponents: 5-7 each. Both have beaten Miami. The Niners' best win is Sunday's over Denver. The Vikings' best is a 9-3 grinder in Chicago. Both may be elite, but neither has had to prove it yet. San Francisco climbed in the power rankings largely on wins over the Rams, Dolphins and Cardinals.
The .500 Teams That Might Be Better Than That
Three 2-2 teams have faced the hardest schedules in the league, and they're the buy-low candidates.
Denver Broncos (2-2). Opponents: 11-1, tied for the toughest in the league. Denver's losses came on the road at Kansas City and San Francisco, arguably the two best teams in football. Its wins came over Jacksonville and the Rams, who are a combined 8-2 against everyone else. When the schedule lightens up, which it does, the Broncos could be a buy-low team.
New England Patriots (2-2). Opponents: 9-3. The Patriots dropped 13 spots to No. 31 in NFL.com's power rankings last week. They dropped between 11-15 in Fezzik's power ratings at +1. Then they went to Buffalo and won. Their losses: by three in Seattle and a blowout in Jacksonville. Their wins: a 20-3 beating of Pittsburgh and the upset of the Bills. That's not a bottom-five team.
Los Angeles Rams (2-2). Opponents: 9-3. The Rams beat the Giants by 22 and won in Philadelphia. One loss came to the unbeaten 49ers. The other came by four points to a Denver team that has played the hardest schedule in the league.
Winless, but Not Necessarily Hopeless
Two of the five 0-4 teams have a real excuse in their schedule.
Miami Dolphins (0-4). Opponents: 11-1. Miami opened with the Raiders, 49ers, Chiefs and Vikings. Those four teams are 15-1 overall, and the only loss among them came when two of them played each other. The Dolphins lost in Minnesota 15-10 on Sunday. They aren't good, but the schedule has made them look worse than they are.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4). Opponents: 7-5. This may be the most misleading record in the league. The Bucs have lost by 6, 4, 7 and 3, so 0-4 by a combined 20 points, against an above-.500 slate. That's a team close to winning games, not a lost cause.
The Other Side: Records Worth Questioning
Some .500 teams have looked better than their schedules justify.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-2). Opponents: 4-8. The Eagles beat Washington by two and winless Tennessee by four. They lost to Chicago by 20 and to the Rams at home. Narrow wins over weak teams and losses to good ones are a worrying pattern.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2). Opponents: 3-9. Cincinnati's wins came over Tampa Bay and Houston, who are 0-8 combined. The Bengals lost both games against teams at .500 or better.
Atlanta Falcons (2-2). Opponents: 5-7. Monday's 45-24 rout in New Orleans was the Falcons' second straight blowout, after a 35-14 win in Green Bay. It feels like a turnaround with Michael Penix Jr. back. But those wins came over teams that are 3-5, and Atlanta lost 34-3 at home to Carolina two weeks earlier.
Every Team's Schedule Through Week 4
Opponents' record counts only games those opponents played against other teams. Ranked from toughest to easiest.
Rk | Team | Record | Opps' record (excl. vs. team) | Pct | Opponents |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dolphins | 0-4 | 11-1 | .917 | LV, SF, KC, MIN |
2 | Broncos | 2-2 | 11-1 | .917 | KC, JAX, LAR, SF |
3 | Patriots | 2-2 | 9-3 | .750 | SEA, PIT, JAX, BUF |
4 | Rams | 2-2 | 9-3 | .750 | SF, NYG, DEN, PHI |
5 | Jaguars | 3-1 | 8-4 | .667 | CLE, DEN, NE, CIN |
6 | Bears | 3-1 | 8-4 | .667 | CAR, MIN, PHI, NYJ |
7 | Panthers | 2-2 | 8-4 | .667 | CHI, ATL, CLE, DET |
8 | Buccaneers | 0-4 | 7-5 | .583 | CIN, CLE, MIN, GB |
9 | Steelers | 2-2 | 7-5 | .583 | ATL, NE, CIN, CLE |
10 | Saints | 1-3 | 7-5 | .583 | DET, BAL, LV, ATL |
11 | Chiefs | 4-0 | 7-5 | .583 | DEN, IND, MIA, LV |
12 | Cardinals | 1-3 | 7-5 | .583 | LAC, SEA, SF, NYG |
13 | Commanders | 1-3 | 6-6 | .500 | PHI, DAL, SEA, IND |
14 | Chargers | 0-4 | 6-6 | .500 | ARI, LV, BUF, SEA |
15 | Colts | 2-2 | 6-6 | .500 | BAL, KC, HOU, WAS |
16 | Browns | 3-1 | 6-6 | .500 | JAX, TB, CAR, PIT |
17 | Titans | 0-4 | 5-7 | .417 | NYJ, PHI, NYG, BAL |
18 | 49ers | 4-0 | 5-7 | .417 | LAR, MIA, ARI, DEN |
19 | Vikings | 4-0 | 5-7 | .417 | GB, CHI, TB, MIA |
20 | Texans | 0-4 | 5-7 | .417 | BUF, CIN, IND, DAL |
21 | Packers | 2-2 | 5-7 | .417 | MIN, NYJ, ATL, TB |
22 | Lions | 2-2 | 5-7 | .417 | NO, BUF, NYJ, CAR |
23 | Cowboys | 2-2 | 5-7 | .417 | NYG, WAS, BAL, HOU |
24 | Falcons | 2-2 | 5-7 | .417 | PIT, CAR, GB, NO |
25 | Eagles | 2-2 | 4-8 | .333 | WAS, TEN, CHI, LAR |
26 | Jets | 1-3 | 4-8 | .333 | TEN, GB, DET, CHI |
27 | Giants | 3-1 | 4-8 | .333 | DAL, LAR, TEN, ARI |
28 | Raiders | 3-1 | 4-8 | .333 | MIA, LAC, NO, KC |
29 | Ravens | 3-1 | 4-8 | .333 | IND, NO, DAL, TEN |
30 | Seahawks | 3-1 | 3-9 | .250 | NE, ARI, WAS, LAC |
31 | Bengals | 2-2 | 3-9 | .250 | TB, HOU, PIT, JAX |
32 | Bills | 3-1 | 3-9 | .250 | HOU, DET, LAC, NE |
So What Are You?
Four games is a small sample, and schedule is only one piece of the picture. Injuries, especially at quarterback, and margin of victory all matter too. But the betting market reacts hardest to wins and losses, and that's where the value hides.
Parcells was right: the record is the record. But if you want to know what a team really is, look at who it played to get there.
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