College Football Saturday Week 5 & NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks

The calendar has flipped to October and we remain locked in on all things Football. Our College Football Free & Premium Plays are off to an incredible start and after a 5-0 Week in Circa Millions, we hit the reset button in our NFL contest.

Speaking of hot starts, Jake Novakovich is 16-7 to start the College Football Season, and he has 3 Free Plays up right now, including one below.

Notre Dame at North Carolina

12:00 p.m. ET · Kenan Stadium 

North Carolina team total UNDER 13.5 -122, BetMGM

Notre Dame doesn't give up points. Wisconsin got 13, Rice got zero, Michigan State got 10, and Purdue got 10 last week. That Purdue offense had scored at least 36 in every game before it ran into this defense — I know, because I was betting the over that night and watched it happen. Nobody has reached 14 against the Irish all season.

North Carolina's offense hasn't shown me it's the team to break that. In two games against FBS opponents, Bill Belichick's team put up 15 at TCU and 20 at Clemson, and Billy Edwards Jr. threw for 135 yards in the Clemson loss. Their best day was 35 on East Tennessee State, an FCS school.

Notre Dame is laying three touchdowns. I'm not betting on Notre Dame to score. I'm betting North Carolina doesn't.

Take the 13.5 at BetMGM or DraftKings. Some books are already down to 12.5 — at that number I pass. Don't pay worse than −130.

Check out the rest of Jake's College Football FREE PLAY ARTICLE HERE.

AJ Hoffman and Scott Seidenberg both gave out College Football Best Bets during Thursday's Bettor Day Football Show LIVE STREAM. A reminder you can catch the show every Thursday at 2pm Eastern on the Bettor Day YouTube & Twitter.

Washington at USC

7:30 p.m. ET · LA Coliseum  

USC -9.5

AJ Hoffman: "Washington is INCOMPETENT. They cannot get anything going on the offensive side of the ball.

And as bad as USC's defense can be — as bad as it was against Oregon — I don't think the Huskies have enough to really put that in danger.

I think USC on the other side is going to DOMINATE the style of defense Washington plays. Coming off last week where they were embarrassed, with everybody talking about the hot seat for Lincoln Riley — I think they have their way with this Washington team.

USC anything under ten will probably be my favorite bet this week."

UTEP at New Mexico

4:00 p.m. ET · University Stadium

New Mexico -22.5

Scott's Biggest Edge in the model.

"This is one of my largest edge mismatches in ALL of my analysis this week. I have NINE EDGES in this game — and they ALL go toward New Mexico."

EPA per play · passing down efficiency · defensive havoc · finishing drives · points per opportunity — everything.

AJ: "New Mexico had one of the HOME RUN HIRES with Jason Eck. They've really got something figured out. And UTEP is just a disaster right now."

🎯 FEZZIK'S BOLD PREDICTION

Fezzik: "Clip this. UTEP WILL NOT SCORE. They'll be shut out. I fully believe. 31-0."

SUPERCONTEST COLLEGE CARD WEEK 5

Follow the Bettor Day SuperContest Entry All Season!

NFL SURVIVOR WEEK 4

📉 TWO ENTRIES LEFT

Mack: "Fortunately, unfortunately, about sixty-seven percent of our entries seem to go through every week. It's about average — but we can do better than average. That's why we've sharpened our pencils. We're looking not only at this week, but at a peek into NEXT week, where we think some one-two combinations might get us through to later in the contest."

The Seahawks Loss

The sequence: a Jadarian Price fumble on the opening drive, an easy Commanders touchdown, and a 3-0 turnover game.

Mac: "We CALLED it. We said if the Seahawks have a three-to-zero turnover game, we think they can still win. And we were mostly right — they still had a chance if they could have gotten a stop on Mariota on one of those third downs.

That's always the thing with this game. If you have uneven teams, but I TELL YOU the worse team is going to have a two or three turnover advantage, it doesn't even become a fifty-fifty game. You are the UNDERDOG at that point.

And as we know, year over year, turnovers are largely unpredictive. Noisy. That said — we were wary of Sam Darnold coming back. He definitely returned to his New Jersey days as a pumpkin in that fourth quarter."

🧬 OUR TWO ENTRIES NOW HAVE PERSONALITIES

Mac: "They're not just generic entries anymore. Each has its own path of how we got there, and that provides different equity. That might help you at home when you look at your own portfolio — which entries have exciting opportunities and which ones you have to catch up a little bit with."

🎉 The Lucky Escape

Dan: "I'm QUITE HAPPY we don't have the Steelers anymore. Goodness gracious, Mac — they would have lost Thursday. Sorry to everybody who had that. I'm happy we missed it.

And the Panthers don't look so good anymore. They're a bit beat up. So maybe we struck right with the Panthers, and maybe that offsets our frustrating Seattle loss."

Mac: "The fact that we have the Panthers on one is great — I don't think they're a top fifteen team. And the Steelers on another: I think this is the first year they're going to be UNDER .500. Not a bold prediction given their win total, but it IS bold considering eighteen years in a row of .500 or better."

📌 THE CONTEXT FOR EVERYONE ELSE

Dan: "My guess is a lot of people at home have used three very good teams — Jacksonville in week one, the Niners in week two, Kansas City last week.

If you've used three teams that a lot of people are going to use, which is the better way to phrase it — remember you need eighteen to twenty teams for most pools, and TWENTY-FOUR in Splash."

⭐ THE OFFICIAL PICK: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seahawks -7 to -7.5 vs the Chargers

The Redemption Case

Crucially: neither surviving entry has used Seattle.

Mac: "People are going to be OFF them because they just lost and just burned them. And they're not as big favorites as the Ravens and Vikings."

🔄 Both Teams Were Misread Last Week

Dan: "Last week with the Seahawks — one turnover was fluky with that pick six. There was a goal line stop. There was one that bounced off a linebacker. And the Jadarian Price fumble.

Then the second half was what I thought the Seahawks would do all game. Those turnovers killed us.

On the flip side for the Chargers — that was the BAD Josh Allen game. If you had Buffalo last week in Survivor, you were sweating. I really did think they'd lose. I said: Chargers, this is it, you have all the turnovers, you should put up 24 to 28 points.

They didn't even cover the seven and a half."

Mac's framing: "If you believe turnover margin is mostly noise and teams are as good as they'd have been without them — then the CHARGERS WERE A LOT WORSE than their eight-point loss, and the SEAHAWKS WERE A LOT BETTER than their three-point loss."

🧢 Mac on the Chargers Offense

"I'm completely out. I think the whole thing is that MIKE McDANIEL WANTS A VERY PARTICULAR QUARTERBACK — a Niners-style, paint-by-numbers guy. Kirk Cousins. Tua. That's the prototype you build from.

Whereas Justin Herbert might just be a TOOLS guy. Get back there and beat people with athleticism and an incredible arm. And it hasn't worked yet.

The fact that so many people were DEFENDING Justin Herbert after another terrible game, including a terrible interception — well it's the offensive line, well it's the running backs — it just makes me want to bet against them AGAIN."

📊 The Coaching Stat

Dan: "I just don't think they're going to lose two games in a row."

Mac: "Super Bowl champs losing two in a row. Maybe the best coach in the league, a lot of people are saying. That's generally a great coaching stat — not losing after a loss."

⭐ THE SECOND ENTRY: BALTIMORE RAVENS

Ravens -11.5 vs the Titans

The Case

Dan: "The Titans suck. There's not really much else I can add."

Mac: "I feel like the Titans are the kind of team that could beat the Ravens — keep it very low scoring, stop Derrick Henry, Lamar makes some mistakes. I could see the script. But it's 11.5 for a reason, and it's not like I'm running to the window to bet +11.5."

⚠️ The Health Questions

Dan: "My one concern with NOT using them this week is that maybe this is just the current Zay Flowers state with that pulled hamstring. And Ronnie Stanley is just Ronnie Stanley at this point."

🗓️ The Cupcakes Argument — And Why It Got Weaker

The Ravens' upcoming schedule: Titans this week, at Atlanta in week five, at Cleveland in week six.

Mac: "Atlanta and the Browns as opponents would have seemed VERY attractive to Survivor people two weeks ago.

But Atlanta had the most surprising and best performance compared to expectations in week three. And one game into week four, the Browns would be in that category too.

They're both seemingly with an UP ARROW. So maybe we do throw a Ravens entry in here."

⚖️ THE DIVERSIFICATION LOGIC

Mac: "The way it's shaping up — there are two teams EVERYONE is going to pick in the Vikings and the Ravens. And there are two teams the clever people like us are going to talk ourselves into.

I suggest we go ONE AND ONE. We don't say neither of the big favorites is worth touching, and we don't say neither of the reach picks is worth picking."

📈 The Contrarian Value

"Talking about week two when everyone was on the Bucs, and week one when a lot of people including us were on the Chargers — there IS some benefit, especially now that it's a thinned-out pool, to being on the NON-OBVIOUS pick.

If ninety percent pick the obvious one, then you have a ten percent chance at a LOT of equity at the end of the day."

📊 THE 0-3 ATS BOUNCE-BACK DATABASE

Mac checked it live. Teams that have lost BOTH straight up and against the spread in all three games: the Dolphins, Texans, Chargers and Buccaneers.

"Straight up, not great. But these teams are EXCELLENT against the spread. I know we're in straight-up contests, but this is a measure of beating expectations.

No one is as bad as they look when they look their worst."

⚠️ BUYER BEWARE: THE VIKINGS

Vikings -10.5 vs the Dolphins — "ten and a half point favorites for a reason."

🙅 Dan's Kyler Problem

"Unfortunately, Kyler Murray still sucks. I don't understand the offseason hype — I think it was just that we don't like JJ. That's fine, but Kyler was never the answer either.

I actually think the Vikings SCREWED THIS UP. JJ McCarthy was much higher variance — but if he sucks, you get a high draft pick.

Watching Kyler last week, he looks like the OLD Kyler. Panicky. Looks like he wants to run around. Looks like he's still 5'9" and can't execute this offense."

📉 Mac's Version: Three Bad Offensive Games in a Row

"They're 3-0, but they haven't played ONE good game of offense yet. Kyler's played like a drive in one game, and the one game was against a decent defense in Todd Bowles' desperate Bucs.

My first reaction was: well, that can't continue. WHY NOT? What has changed?

Three weeks in a row under two hundred fifty total yards. The Dolphins defense isn't good — but it ISN'T THE WORST PART OF THEIR TEAM. Usually that's the offense.

A punchers' chance, a bad offense, against a very RISK-PRONE defense might be the perfect solution to have some things go right and start feeling good about themselves."

🧮 The Low-Total Factor

"Super low total also means one or two broken plays matter enormously. You get out of a blitz, you get out of a scramble, somebody's open downfield. FOURTEEN POINTS IS HUGE when the total is 38.5."

The Nightmare Scenario, Spelled Out

Dan: "Game theory says we choose the Vikings here. I hate Kyler Murray with a passion. I don't mind using them — I'm not thrilled. It's kind of like NOW OR NEVER.

It's similar to the Bucs week two pick."

Mac: "Sometimes now or never gets you in trouble."

🎯 THE SHARP ALTERNATIVE: ARIZONA CARDINALS

If you have a third entry, this is the play.

Dan: "Not a lot of time to use them. The only other argument is late in the year, weeks fifteen through seventeen when they play the Jets and the Raiders — and even then I'm not a confident Survivor.

I would NOT mind Arizona this week. If we had that third entry, I'd be arguing it much harder. I think this offense and Jacoby Brissett can move the ball. We saw it last week against the 49ers, where you were probably sweating if you had the Niners for Survivor.

This offensive coaching staff is fine throwing the ball and just KEEPING ON throwing it, like we saw last year. They have the weapons to score."

🗽 The Giants Side

"Is Jameis Winston as bad as we saw last week? I have no idea because of that weather. Maybe he IS that bad — he has no arm strength. And maybe the coaching staff, who just added JJ McCarthy, told us everything we need to know.

BRIAN BURNS TORE HIS ACL. He's out. And the Giants pass rush, despite investing in pass rush for years, still kind of sucks. I don't know how you don't fix that properly with all those high-end picks."

⭐ Mac's Endorsement

"Our best pick of the year was another one of these average-to-bad teams — the Panthers on the road at the Falcons. Easy winner. A team and a spot nobody else had, which gives us good equity, and we don't care about not having them down the road.

I endorse this as a sharp alternative. It just seems the Giants have NOT played nearly well enough to be 3-1, and the Cardinals have NOT played badly enough to be 1-3 after four weeks — and that's what would have to happen for the Giants to win.

You'll be on a PLANE OF GLASS where if everyone else falls down, you'll be very happy you picked them."

🚫 THE REST OF THE BOARD

🇬🇧 Colts -3.5 vs Washington (London)

Mac: "Surprised to see this all the way up to three and a half. That seems like a PICK game. I've not been too impressed by the Colts or too disappointed by the Commanders to say that on the road. That offense makes a lot more sense on a neutral than it does in Indy."

Dan: "I worry last week was very fluky for the Commanders — you're not going to repeat that. But their offensive line sucks, and the Colts defense can't stop anybody. They looked good against the Texans without Nico Collins, but that's probably more a function of how bad the Texans are without him.

It's an international game, neutral site. I just think WEIRD THINGS HAPPEN. If the Colts win and dominate, I wouldn't be surprised. If they struggle all game, I wouldn't be surprised either. High variance."

🦬 Bills -7 vs the Patriots — The Near Co-Pick

Dan had Buffalo and Seattle rated the SAME.

"The Patriots are missing Christian Barmore and Christian Gonzalez. That defense wasn't good to start with.

If you go through the All-22, these offensive tackles are TERRIBLE. The game plan was terrible. The wide receivers can't separate. If you look at it and ask what Drake Maye is doing — then you look and there's NOBODY ANYWHERE getting open. You're going to start forcing some stuff.

Do I think the Bills turn it over four or five times again? Probably not. Do I think they can put up 31 to 35 on this team? Yes. And I think Drake Maye could be in one of those years where things snowball from bad to worse to abysmal."

🩸 THE BLOODY HAND

On Maye's explanation for the fumble where he dropped the ball going back to throw:

Mac: "Is it a bad decision to go back to throw and then drop the ball on the ground?" Dan: "His hand was bloody. That was his argument." Mac: "That's a GREAT excuse." Dan: "He said his hand was bloody and he's got kind of small hands, so it slipped out. We should not even be talking about that. That should NEVER come out of your mouth. Now people are going to say — all right, HIT HIS HANDS, because when his hands get a little wobbly he has a hard time holding the ball."

What they wanted to hear: "That was a terrible lack of focus by me."

Mac: "As shell-shocked as he looked in the games, his PRESS CONFERENCES do raise an eyebrow. He's like, man, I'm lost out there. It was hazy, man. My hands were bloody, man."

💾 Why They Saved Them

Dan: "I like the Bills this week — I had them in the same consideration as Seattle. But Seattle doesn't have much value coming down the pipeline the way their schedule sets up. The BILLS DO."

Mac: "The Bills host the Dolphins on NOVEMBER 22nd. It would be good fortune and good picking to get us to that point — but that's the ideal time to use them."

🐏 Rams -3.5 at the Eagles — A Real Sharp Alternative

One of the biggest intra-week downgrades of the season: Rams -2.5 up to -3.5, with some -115 prices. A full point and a half THROUGH THE THREE.

Dan: "It's definitely injury related. DeVonta Smith is OUT. Zack Baun is out. And people already didn't like Jalen Hurts — a lot of that movement came after Monday night, because he sucked it up against the Bears defense.

I think Jalen Hurts is like Jordan Love: HE NEEDS A LOT TO GO RIGHT to be functional. Now he doesn't have the offensive line. The receivers aren't healthy. The defense hasn't been the same.

The Rams would not be a bad sharp alternative — remember last year the Rams lined up for the field goal to win and got it BLOCKED. I actually had money on that. I'm very upset about it."

⚠️ But Hold Them for Thanksgiving

"I do worry about holding Matt Stafford, because he's looked okay but nothing like peak Stafford from last year. We need to hold them for Thanksgiving week when they host Green Bay."

Also Passed

📋 WEEK 4 SUMMARY

Mac: "Call us chalk. We'll see you at the window."

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