Week 5 Card: 3 Games, 3 Plays
(4-0 last week — 16-6 YTD) Week 4 went well — Wisconsin won outright at Penn State as a 10-point dog, Alabama cleared its 33.5 team total with 49, and Notre Dame-Purdue landed on 59 against a 58.5 total, and Ole Miss/Florida flew over the total of 58.5
Let's stay hot in Week 5.
1. Indiana at Rutgers
8:00 p.m. ET · SHI Stadium
Indiana −24 -110, BetMGM
Northwestern is better than anybody gave them credit for, and that's why last Friday looked the way it did. The Wildcats came into Bloomington having beaten San Diego State 34-18 and Colorado 41-7, and they made Indiana work for a 29-23 win. Curt Cignetti said afterward his team didn't play well — that 12 of its first 25 plays were penalties, missed assignments or missed opportunities. That's a coach who just won a Big Ten game and wasn't happy about it.
Now they get Rutgers, and this is the get-right spot. Before Northwestern, Indiana won 52-16, 55-0 and 38-0. Rutgers opened its season by losing at home to UMass 37-21 as a four-touchdown favorite. They've given up 37, 28 and 42 points to the three FBS teams they've played. Their only win is over Howard, an FCS team.
Indiana spent a week hearing about how they nearly lost a game they were supposed to win easily. Rutgers is the team they get to take it out on.
The risk: Indiana may be 4-0 Straight Up, but they are 0-4 Against the Spread. Getting this at 24 and not 24.5 is a very important hook.
A lean, not an official play — Over 56.5, best price at BetMGM (−108). Rutgers games have gone 58, 49, 77 and 65, three of the four past this number. Their defense has given up 37, 28 and 42 to FBS teams, Indiana has scored 52 and 55 on its own, and Rutgers put 35 on USC. If you want a second piece of this game, the over is where I'd look.
2. Notre Dame at North Carolina
12:00 p.m. ET · Kenan Stadium
North Carolina team total UNDER 13.5 -122, BetMGM
Notre Dame doesn't give up points. Wisconsin got 13, Rice got zero, Michigan State got 10, and Purdue got 10 last week. That Purdue offense had scored at least 36 in every game before it ran into this defense — I know, because I was betting the over that night and watched it happen. Nobody has reached 14 against the Irish all season.
North Carolina's offense hasn't shown me it's the team to break that. In two games against FBS opponents, Bill Belichick's team put up 15 at TCU and 20 at Clemson, and Billy Edwards Jr. threw for 135 yards in the Clemson loss. Their best day was 35 on East Tennessee State, an FCS school.
Notre Dame is laying three touchdowns. I'm not betting on Notre Dame to score. I'm betting North Carolina doesn't.
Take the 13.5 at BetMGM or DraftKings. Some books are already down to 12.5 — at that number I pass. Don't pay worse than −130.
3. BYU at TCU
7:00 p.m. ET · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Under 48.5 - 118, DraftKings (47.5 elsewhere)
This game gets played at a crawl. BYU wants to run it and keep it, and they've done exactly that: 56 plays against Arizona, 58 at Colorado State, and they held the ball more than 33 minutes in two of their three games. None of their games has had more than 124 total snaps. TCU's have run between 120 and 128.
The BYU run game is the strength, and it's running straight into TCU's. The Horned Frogs are giving up 86 rushing yards a game at under three yards a carry. Their defense hasn't allowed more than 21 points to anyone: 15, 7, 7 and 21.
The problem in Fort Worth has been the other side of the ball. TCU scored 10 against North Carolina and 13 at UCF — the two Power Four teams they've played, and both games stayed under 35 total points. BYU's only Power Four game was a 28-17 win over Arizona.
Be clear about the number, though. This opened at 52.5 and the market has already come down four points to meet me. I'm not getting a stale price here; I'm buying after the move, which is why I'd still take 48.5 and why 47.5 is fine too, but I'm not chasing it lower.
Jake Novakovich is a contributor to Bettor Day. You can follow him on X @CashOnSaturdays. Lines move: re-check before you play. Check out our FREE ODDS PAGE
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