College Football Saturday Week 11 Free Plays / Breakdowns & NFL Survivor Week 10 Strategy

The 2nd iteration of the CFB Playoff Rankings were unveiled this week and the committee corrected itself on a few teams. We also have two SYSTEM PLAYS today in the Top 25 and how did yesterday's air travel delays affect certain teams?

Plus NFL Week 10 is here and Dan Rivers & Mackenzie Rivers are staying alive. Find out who they risked their last remaining survivor entry on as they go through all the available options and optimal strategy.

🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PLAYS

Jake Novakovich Free Plays (2-2 last week — 27-16-1 YTD +9.0 Units) READ JAKES FULL FREE PLAY ARTICLE HERE

1. Boston College at Notre Dame

3:30 p.m. ET · Notre Dame Stadium

Boston College +29.5 -110, FanDuel

This is an ugly dog. Boston College is 4-5, lost 47-2 at Duke two weeks ago, and beat FCS Maine by six as a 37.5-point favorite. But 29.5 is a lot of points for this spot.

Last Saturday Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami 31-24 and the fans stormed the field. SMU comes to South Bend next week. Boston College is the game in between, and Notre Dame's own injury report points ahead: safety Brauntae Johnson, cornerback DJ McKinney and linebacker Drayk Bowen are out, and One Foot Down expects defensive linemen Jason Onye and Francis Brewu to use one more week of recovery "to prep for SMU."

When Notre Dame gets a big lead, it takes its foot off the gas. Rice trailed 42-0 at halftime and lost 52-0. Purdue trailed 35-0 at the half and lost 49-10. If the Irish are up big again, I expect CJ Carr on the sideline and a second half like those.

And as bad as Boston College has looked, Duke is the only team to beat them by more than 19. They lost 25-16 at SMU as a 21.5-point underdog, and lost by seven to Florida State last week — which was my play, −6.5, and it cashed by half a point against this same team. That cuts both ways and I'd rather you heard it from me: the team I'm now taking plus 29.5 is the team I laid points against seven days ago.

History: under Bill O'Brien, Boston College has been a 20-point underdog three times and covered all three — Louisville (+25.5, lost 38-24), Notre Dame last year (+30.5, lost 25-10) and SMU this year (+21.5, lost 25-16). Since 2023, favorites of 28 or more coming off a win over a ranked team are 8-15 against the number against FBS opponents. Notre Dame was in that exact spot in 2024: a week after winning at Texas A&M, it lost 16-14 to Northern Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite.

The risk: the letdown spot is an idea I keep going back to, and my record on it is a coin flip. It lost me LSU at Kentucky in Week 6 and won me LSU at Auburn in Week 8. It's a reason, not evidence.

2. Minnesota at Penn State

7:00 p.m. ET · Beaver Stadium

Penn State −10.5 -115, FanDuel

Minnesota is worn down, and Friday made it worse. The Gophers were on their charter, about to leave Minneapolis for State College, when the FAA grounded flights nationwide Friday afternoon. They got off the plane and went back to campus. As of Friday night the plan was to fly out Saturday morning — which would have them landing in Pennsylvania the day of the game and kicking off at night in Beaver Stadium.

That's on top of the schedule. Saturday is Minnesota's fourth straight game since its open date, and the last three came against Iowa, Indiana and UCLA — three of the best defenses in the country. The Gophers scored 13, 16 and 20 in those games on 209, 215 and 296 yards, and Drake Lindsey threw for 137, 120 and 205.

Penn State has won two straight: 28-25 at Washington as an underdog, and 31-17 over Purdue, a game in which it held the ball 43:27 and gave up 175 yards.

History: Minnesota has scored 20 or fewer in five of its last six, and is 2-6 all-time at Penn State.

BETTOR DAY FOOTBALL SHOW

Scott Seidenberg, Steve Fezzik & AJ Hoffman broke down their favorite angles for today's games. Listen/Watch this weeks episode

⭐⭐ TWO SYSTEM PLAYS

A reminder of the System: two ranked teams, and the inferior-ranked team is favored over the superior-ranked team. As Scott put it, simple enough that a sharp third-grader could run it. s/o Fezz

Oklahoma State: ⭐ AJ wants the MONEYLINE, not the spread

Fezzik can't make sense of the opponent: "Texas Tech sucked to start the year, then it looked like they were turning around, and now they appear to suck again."

AJ: "They're dreadful on the road. I don't want to play 3.5. I'd play an Oklahoma State moneyline, though — because there's a lot of variance in what's likely to be a very high-scoring game. I think Oklahoma State wins. Don't trust Texas Tech at all."

That's a smart adjustment to flag: if you expect a shootout, the spread carries variance you don't need. The moneyline just asks who wins.

LSU–Texas: ⭐ AJ'S BEST BET IS THE UNDER 46.5

First, the honest accounting on last week. Scott laid the points with LSU against Alabama and lost — but the box score is a textbook phony finish:

457 yards and 13 points. The drives were there; the finishing wasn't.

And that's precisely what AJ built his best bet on:

⭐ "The problem is when they get in the red zone they're struggling to finish. And if you struggle to finish in the red zone against Alabama, you're going to have real trouble against Texas — because Texas is ELITE when opponents get into the red zone. When you give Texas less space to defend, they dominate."

And he doesn't trust the other side either: "LSU forces long third downs, which means there's no easy dink-and-dunk option for Arch — and when that's not available, their offense sputters."

Two offenses that can move the ball and can't finish. Under 46.5 is his best bet of the show.

On the side: Fezzik makes it LSU −3 with a total of 47, so the spread is an easy pass for him — though his gut likes an excited LSU team that's in the playoff if it runs the table. And the primetime record is the trap: since 2021, LSU at home with a 7 p.m. or later kickoff is 23-3 straight up but only 13-13 ATS. They win in Death Valley at night; the market knows.

⭐⭐ #2 UTAH −2.5 AT #23 ARIZONA — BOTH CO-HOSTS LIKE ARIZONA

AJ: "This was the first game I texted you about this week." His case is the spot: emotional letdown after the Holy War, then cross-conference travel to Tucson. "Arizona's good — at least Big 12 good. Give me Arizona to hang around. I think they may even get the upset win."

Fezzik agrees, and his read on Utah is harsher: they "played a dreadfully bad game and got a phony win at the end" against BYU. "They would be sad if they'd lost that game — but because they won it, now they're playing for everything. And who are the Utes to be laying points on the road?"

⭐ And Scott's database pull is the strongest research of the week

Utah in the game immediately following the Holy War:

Read the road row again: 1-4 straight up and 1-4 against the spread. That's a small sample, but it's pointed in exactly the direction the spot analysis suggests — and the broader post-Holy-War record is a coin flip at best, with a losing ATS mark over twenty years.

⭐ #18 USC AT #9 INDIANA — AJ LIKES USC A LOT

His argument is that the market hasn't updated: "I think the market is still acting like Indiana is Indiana from last year, and nothing about this year's results says it's the same team. They are not blowing teams out. They're eking past middling teams — they eked past Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern."

⭐ "Who are they beating by double digits? Who are they beating of note by more than a touchdown? It just hasn't happened this season."

So he'll take USC catching more than a touchdown, even though he normally avoids backing USC on the road in Big Ten games.

Fezzik's objection is worth printing because it's the reason the number is where it is: "You're violating basic strategy. USC, when they go east and when they go north, they can't play a lick. Unless they're playing Nebraska or someone else who can't play a lick, I can't do it."

AJ's rebuttal: they already won at Penn State this year — which was supposed to be the thing they'd never do. (With the fair caveat that Penn State may just stink.)

📊 THREE MODEL PLAYS

1. Nebraska over Rutgers — the biggest edge in the model

Rutgers' best player, receiver KJ Duff, is done for the season — and without him last week they managed 10 points against Wisconsin. Nebraska, meanwhile, fired their offensive coordinator after two bad weeks, because something had to change.

AJ's adjustment: take the Rutgers team total under instead of laying the number. "Now that it's over two touchdowns I'm not looking to lay the wood. But this Rutgers team is really awful, and Nebraska is better than their record looks."

Fezzik's context on the Wisconsin game: "Wisconsin's better than Nebraska, and Rutgers was hanging around that whole game — then Wisconsin opened it up and you blinked and they went from up seven to up 21 for a final score. A phony cover late."

⭐ And his stat on the host: "Welcome to the Big Ten, Nebraska. They're something like 1-9 against Minnesota and Iowa and Wisconsin — all their regional rivals. They've lost ninety percent of their games to frankly mediocre teams."

2. Virginia Tech −14.5 over Stanford — the model makes it 18

Stanford travels cross-country for a primetime game. AJ leans Virginia Tech: this is a small game, Franklin caught a lot of grief after the Cal loss, and "normally James has a couple of games where he just puts a beating on bad football teams." The caveat: he hasn't had a blowout win in ACC play yet, so you're asking for something that hasn't happened — but Stanford is pretty bad and probably ripe for the picking.

3. Liberty −21 over Middle Tennessee — AJ passes

Liberty is 8-1. AJ's numbers made it Liberty "just barely — not enough of an edge that I'm looking to get into it."

NFL SURVIVOR WEEK 10

🏈 THE BOARD

⭐ Rams −9.5 at Cardinals — THE OFFICIAL PICK

• Arizona is down to Carson Beck with Gardner Minshew out for the season, a third-string left tackle, multiple starting O-linemen out and a receiver gone
• nfelo has the Rams as the No. 1 power-rated team in the league at +7.1, edging the Jaguars and Bills — and the Cardinals dead last at −6.8, below the Titans and Dolphins
• Mac cross-checked it: ESPN has the Rams 6th; an aggregate of ratings puts them around 5th. Not an outlier
• Puka Nacua is on IR for at least four weeks and Davante Adams is still out — but Myles Garrett's return matters more to getting this pick home than Puka would. Garrett looked like himself last week; Aaron Donald has been solid
• The Rams have the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the league per ESPN's FPI — Chiefs, 49ers, Seahawks still to come. Use them now or don't use them
• Dan's worries: McVay's play calling, Stafford's arm, and a team that "only cares about winning, not covering." Expect ugly
• Revenge note: Arizona knocked out two of their earlier entries, both in LA — one on the Chargers, one on the Rams in the 18-16 game where the Cardinals never scored a touchdown

⭐ Jaguars −10.5 at Titans — the strongest alternative

• Tennessee traded safety Amani Hooker and is somehow more banged up coming out of the bye than going in
• Jacksonville is on extra rest from the Thursday game ten days ago, so the Titans' rest edge is smaller than it looks
• Jacksonville's two new acquisitions aren't expected to play, per Liam Coen
• No left tackle for the Jaguars — but Tennessee isn't the team to exploit it
• Dan's only concern: do they take it seriously? The Bengals didn't two weeks ago and needed overtime. He thinks Jacksonville does
• Mac: they've been slaughtering teams in Jacksonville, but he'd happily grab them on the road

Bills at Jets — usable, but the timing is the whole question

• Buffalo plays the Dolphins next week and hosts Kansas City on Thanksgiving — so using them now costs you both
• Next week's card looks fine, notably the Bears hosting the Saints off a bye — "Ben Johnson will name that score"
• The Jets can move the ball but can't score. Sloppy in the red zone, poorly coached, Geno Smith struggling. Expect a lot of field goals
• 🚩 The recurring Bills fear: the one Josh Allen reckless game — Week 3 against the Chargers, four or five turnovers, no business winning. Dan's nuance: it's hard to repeat two weeks in a row, so right after one of those games is actually a fine time to use them
• Mac is more worried about this game than the Jaguars game

Colts at Dolphins — gross, but it works if you're out of teams

• The key read: Indianapolis was holding Jonathan Taylor back — cutting his attempts to keep him healthy while they shopped him. The deadline has passed, so they can ramp him up
• Likely a Tyler Warren game; the Colts have no receivers to speak of
• Miami's structural problem: they built the offense around a mobile quarterback and are now starting a pocket passer. They also lost a defensive lineman this week
• Dan's projection: 20-14, 21-13. "Cover your eyes. Don't follow the score."
• Verdict: good enough to win, not necessary to use

⭐ Mac's filter, and it's the best framework on the show: "You have to use twenty teams over a season. So the first question is — if I were picking at any point this year, I'm using these 20 and I'm not using these 12. Which group does this team fall into?" The Colts are now in the bottom twelve.

Ravens — Mac's preferred sharp alternative over the Colts

• They won't be at their best, but they put up 40 points on Indianapolis in Week 1, and Lamar Jackson had the second-best QBR in the league through four weeks — including a 158.3 passer rating in first halves
• They have to win it with Tyler Huntley on Monday night
• The long-term argument: if you expect to still be alive later, the Ravens will be in a better spot then

🚩 49ers at Cowboys — BUYER BEWARE

• Trent Williams did not practice — a shoulder injury that appeared midweek. A true questionable
• ⭐ The stat: San Francisco is 34-6 — 85% — when Purdy, McCaffrey and Trent Williams all play, including 2-1 in the playoffs
• The Niners are only 2-1 on the road, and this is just their fourth game outside San Francisco
• Mac, a 49ers fan, is wary anyway: "The Cowboys are not going to roll over. They know they have to get these wins." And San Francisco has been almost too good in Dallas — "they're not going to go 9-0 against their historic rival"
• Verdict: a top-20 team worth saving. Easy games are coming, including Arizona twice

Also on the board, briefly

• Bengals vs. Steelers — the biggest home favorite of the week outside Monday night. "Do they go 0-2 against the Steelers? Probably not." A fine fallback
• Texans at Browns — the most desperate road favorite on the card. Mac wouldn't mind it, but they used Houston last week
• Saints — injury report is going the wrong way
• Packers — now facing Kirk Cousins' Vikings. Not thrilled

📌 The Pick

Why now and not later: the Rams are a top-six power-rated team today, facing the worst team in the league starting a third-string quarterback. After this they get a bye and then a gauntlet — and without Puka they'll likely be only a two-point favorite over Green Bay on Thanksgiving, which makes them useless for the week they were originally being saved for.

Dan: "I want nothing to do with the Rams going forward." Division games against Seattle and San Francisco remain, Stafford looks diminished, and both of them floated the darker version — if the Rams keep losing bodies and games, they could end up starting Ty Simpson and mailing it in.

🗓️ Thanksgiving Is The Wall

• Week 12A is the Cowboys. That's settled
• Week 12B is undecided — most likely the Bills hosting Kansas City
• Week 11 options they still hold: the Bills and the Bears. The Bears don't have many outs left and play at Detroit on Thanksgiving, so that may be where they go
• Last year they reached Thanksgiving, won part B, and lost part A when the Eagles went down as six-point favorites to the Bears. Dan thinks that one pick cost them the whole thing

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