College Football Free Plays 11/14

Week 11: Four Plays

(2-2 last week — 27-16-1 YTD +9 Units) Last week went badly where it mattered most: Ohio State −7.5 lost outright when Oregon won 41-28, and the under 46.5 lost in a 69-point game.

I wrote up the Ohio State loss at length in Tuesday's column. Short version: I'd been tracking a streak of the books cutting a favorite after a loss and being wrong four straight times, I faded the fifth one, and the books were right — they hadn't cut far enough. A run of four isn't a law and I presented it closer to one than I should have.

1. Boston College at Notre Dame

3:30 p.m. ET · Notre Dame Stadium

Boston College +29.5 -110, FanDuel

This is an ugly dog. Boston College is 4-5, lost 47-2 at Duke two weeks ago, and beat FCS Maine by six as a 37.5-point favorite. But 29.5 is a lot of points for this spot.

Last Saturday Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami 31-24 and the fans stormed the field. SMU comes to South Bend next week. Boston College is the game in between, and Notre Dame's own injury report points ahead: safety Brauntae Johnson, cornerback DJ McKinney and linebacker Drayk Bowen are out, and One Foot Down expects defensive linemen Jason Onye and Francis Brewu to use one more week of recovery "to prep for SMU."

When Notre Dame gets a big lead, it takes its foot off the gas. Rice trailed 42-0 at halftime and lost 52-0. Purdue trailed 35-0 at the half and lost 49-10. If the Irish are up big again, I expect CJ Carr on the sideline and a second half like those.

And as bad as Boston College has looked, Duke is the only team to beat them by more than 19. They lost 25-16 at SMU as a 21.5-point underdog, and lost by seven to Florida State last week — which was my play, −6.5, and it cashed by half a point against this same team. That cuts both ways and I'd rather you heard it from me: the team I'm now taking plus 29.5 is the team I laid points against seven days ago.

History: under Bill O'Brien, Boston College has been a 20-point underdog three times and covered all three — Louisville (+25.5, lost 38-24), Notre Dame last year (+30.5, lost 25-10) and SMU this year (+21.5, lost 25-16). Since 2023, favorites of 28 or more coming off a win over a ranked team are 8-15 against the number against FBS opponents. Notre Dame was in that exact spot in 2024: a week after winning at Texas A&M, it lost 16-14 to Northern Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite.

The risk: the letdown spot is an idea I keep going back to, and my record on it is a coin flip. It lost me LSU at Kentucky in Week 6 and won me LSU at Auburn in Week 8. It's a reason, not evidence.

2. Minnesota at Penn State

7:00 p.m. ET · Beaver Stadium

Penn State −10.5 -115, FanDuel

Minnesota is worn down, and Friday made it worse. The Gophers were on their charter, about to leave Minneapolis for State College, when the FAA grounded flights nationwide Friday afternoon. They got off the plane and went back to campus. As of Friday night the plan was to fly out Saturday morning — which would have them landing in Pennsylvania the day of the game and kicking off at night in Beaver Stadium.

That's on top of the schedule. Saturday is Minnesota's fourth straight game since its open date, and the last three came against Iowa, Indiana and UCLA — three of the best defenses in the country. The Gophers scored 13, 16 and 20 in those games on 209, 215 and 296 yards, and Drake Lindsey threw for 137, 120 and 205.

Penn State has won two straight: 28-25 at Washington as an underdog, and 31-17 over Purdue, a game in which it held the ball 43:27 and gave up 175 yards.

History: Minnesota has scored 20 or fewer in five of its last six, and is 2-6 all-time at Penn State.

3. Texas at LSU

7:30 p.m. ET · Tiger Stadium

Under 46.5 -110, FanDuel

These are two defenses that don't give up points. Against FBS teams, Texas allows 17.4 a game and 4.1 yards per play; LSU allows 18.1 and 4.4. The pace slows in league play too: LSU runs 73 plays a game against SEC teams, down from 80 overall, and Texas runs just 60.

The best single data point is last Saturday. LSU ran 81 plays and gained 457 yards against Alabama and still scored 13, with Sam Leavitt throwing for 380 yards and no touchdowns. Yards without points is exactly what this bet needs.

Both defenses have been better still in games like this one. In SEC play Texas has allowed 3.9 yards a play, and at home against FBS teams LSU has allowed 12.2 points and 211 yards a game. Texas also gets edge rusher Colin Simmons back — he missed the Ole Miss and Mississippi State games with an ankle sprain and isn't on this week's injury report. The Texas offense is going the other way, down left tackle Trevor Goosby and running back Hollywood Smothers for the rest of the year.

Be straight about the number. DraftKings opened this at 54.5 on September 1 and it's 46.5 now — eight points, almost all of it inside the stretch where this game dropped out of my feed, so I can't tell you when the market got here. What I can tell you is that it was 45.5 at Sunday's open and it's a point higher today. So I'm not catching a stale number; I'm getting a point back on a number that already moved a long way without me watching.

History: LSU's three SEC home games have all gone under — 41 points against Texas A&M, 31 against Mississippi State, 44 against Alabama. Four of its six SEC games went under overall.

The risk: my Sarkisian trend is thinner than it looks. "Texas has been a road underdog six times under Sarkisian and five went under" spans 2021 and 2025 — Baylor, Iowa State and West Virginia four years ago, Ohio State and Georgia last season. Different roster, different staff, different sport in some ways. Treat it as color.

On the game: LSU gaining 457 yards and scoring 13 is a red-zone failure, and red-zone failures correct. If LSU finishes two of those drives against a Texas offense that still has to score something, 46.5 is live by the fourth quarter. BetRivers being at 45.5 tells you which way the money has been going.

4. Utah at Arizona

10:30 p.m. ET · Arizona Stadium

Arizona moneyline +105, TheScoreBet

Utah is coming off the Holy War, a 28-20 win over BYU that snapped a three-game losing streak in the rivalry and kept the No. 2 Utes unbeaten. It wasn't a clean win: BYU outgained Utah 391-330, and Utah needed four interceptions to get it done.

Now comes a late kickoff in Tucson after a Friday spent grounded in Salt Lake City. The FAA stop kept Utah's charter on the ground, the team went back to its football building, and as of Friday night it wasn't flying to Arizona until Saturday morning. The Big 12 pushed kickoff back three hours to make room.

Arizona is 5-0 at home, and against FBS teams it gains 6.5 yards per play and allows 5.1. Utah gains the same 6.5 but allows 5.5 — so Arizona has been the better defense of the two. Noah Fifita has thrown for 2,794 yards and 21 touchdowns.

History: Arizona's home wins this season came by 28, 25, 27, 36 and 1. Fifita has beaten Utah both times he's faced them, 42-18 in Tucson in 2023 and 23-10 in Salt Lake City in 2024.

Jake Novakovich is a contributor to Bettor Day. You can follow him on X @CashOnSaturdays. Lines move: re-check before you play. Check out our FREE ODDS PAGE

Our College Football HQ has full matchup details on every game. Advanced stats like EPA/Play, Success Rate & Points per Opportunity, with direct links to the Trench Report for each game. All our data & analysis is included with an Insider Membership. Premium adds the picks: every play from every Bettor Day contributor, in one dashboard.Compare tiers →