College Football Saturday Week 9 Free Plays / Breakdowns & NFL Survivor Week 8 Strategy

Another College Football Saturday and another opportunity for success. We have now had back to back Saturdays in College Football where our contributor picks went 18-5 and 17-5. All College Football Plays are 77-53 and +16.8 in the month of October. In celebration, we are running our Fall Special, offering $25 off your first month of Bettor Day Premium. Let's finish out the month strong. Here are some FREE plays and breakdowns.

PLUS, Dan & Mac are STILL ALIVE in NFL Survivor. Who will the guys go with here in Week 8?

🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PLAYS

Jake Novakovich Free Play (3-0 last week — 25-12-1 YTD +11.4 Units) READ JAKES FULL FREE PLAY ARTICLE HERE

Clemson at Florida State

7:00 p.m. ET · Doak Campbell Stadium

Florida State -5.5 -115, FanDuel

Florida State is 3-4, but look at how they lost. They dropped a 27-24 game to SMU, scored 36 at Alabama, and two weeks ago took unbeaten Miami to double overtime on the road as a 20-point underdog before losing 43-35.

Be precise about that one, because it's the strongest thing I've got and the raw number oversells it. That game was tied 28-28 at the end of regulation — Florida State's 35 includes an overtime touchdown. So the regulation figure is 28, not 35. It's still the most anyone has put on Miami this season, since nobody else has cleared 23, but 28 is the number that compares to theirs.

The one bad night was the Friday at Louisville. They've had two weeks to put the Miami loss behind them, and this is the spot to get something going.

Clemson just doesn't have it. They have 12 offensive touchdowns in seven games and only two came through the air. True freshman Tait Reynolds has one touchdown pass all season. Clemson hasn't scored 30 against an FBS opponent, scored 13 at home against the same Miami defense Florida State hung 28 on in regulation, and lost 20-16 at home to Virginia Tech last week as a favorite.

History: the favorite has won the last ten meetings in this series. Florida State has 29 offensive touchdowns to Clemson's 12, and Ashton Daniels has 12 touchdown passes by himself — Clemson has two as a team. Clemson has failed to cover three straight.

Okay at -6 at reduced vig

More Free Plays from the Bettor Day Football Show. Watch this week's episode HERE

🏔️ THE HOLY WAR SANDWICH

Both participants in next week's Utah–BYU top-10 game — scheduled by Fox for 10 a.m. Pacific, which everyone agrees is a joke — have a trap in front of them this Saturday.

#8 BYU −16.5 vs. Arizona State

Scott's case for the fade: "BYU is coming off back-to-back grueling, emotional, physical games that came down to the wire — the Notre Dame game with a second left, and the double-overtime game at Central Florida on a sloppy, wet field. And now you travel back cross-country to take on Arizona State the week before the Holy War. Why is this not the sandwich spot of the century?"

He answered himself: "I'll tell you why. Because we're waiting for the plus 17 instead of the plus 16 and a half."

⭐ THE DATABASE PULL: BYU THE WEEK BEFORE UTAH

So the look-ahead is real, but it shows up as a non-cover, not a loss. They win and they don't cover: last year they beat Arizona 33-27 as a 2.5-point favorite — a cover, but close. In 2021 against Arizona they won and failed to cover as a 13.5-point favorite.

The counterargument, and it's strong — Fezzik on fading BYU at home:

⭐ "Literally, you've got to be an idiot to fade BYU at home. If you've been the road team in a BYU game — unless it's Utah, unless it's another mountainous team — they are so strong in terms of home field advantage. I've got to have a perfect reason to want to fade them at home."

AJ's version: "Arizona State has played two road games this year. Lost by 28 at Texas A&M. Lost by 28 at Texas Tech. They've not been on the road other than that, and those are teams with pretty good home-field advantages, and they both beat the snot out of Arizona State. This team has not traveled well. I don't expect them to start traveling well here. And BYU is on the bubble of the college football playoff — they can't overlook anything."

Also noted: Arizona State's satisfying win last week came against a backup quarterback.

#6 Utah −6.5 at Cincinnati

Look-ahead for Utah, letdown question for Cincinnati — and Fezzik destroyed the letdown premise.

Scott: "Isn't this the letdown we talk about, where you upset a ranked team as a double-digit dog? They beat Texas Tech in the Brendan Sorsby revenge game. Can Cincinnati get up again?"

⭐ Fezzik: "Hell yeah. It's even MORE of a climax. You're a chess player and you just beat a master — and now you get to play an expert, another guy rated higher than you. I just beat someone better than this. And I'm a six-and-a-half-point underdog, no respect. I'm gonna get more kids in the stands. The program is in a frenzy. Heck, I can even make the college football playoffs. This is not a letdown. They're not playing against Marshall here. This is a huge game."

AJ relocated the letdown spot: "Cincinnati's got at Houston on deck after Utah. So if there's a letdown spot, it'd be that one — going on the road and facing their third consecutive ranked team."

And his read on Utah away from home: "Before the Houston game, remember they were on the ropes against Colorado — and Colorado has basically quit on the season, that's not even a real football team. Going on the road away from home, Utah loses their superpowers. Suddenly they're just a normal team."

Both are waiting: "I'm not getting involved unless I see a seven pop. I wouldn't be surprised on game day if we do see sevens pop." You can get 6.5 at −115 now.

🍸 #3 Georgia vs #17 Florida

The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party moves indoors to Mercedes-Benz Stadium because of the Jacksonville construction. Next year: Orlando.

Scott: "I don't think I can treat this like a neutral. I have to treat it like a home game for Georgia. Florida is an interesting team because at times they look like one of the best teams in the country, and at times they look like a team that shouldn't be in the top 25. It's a big number to lay on a neutral — but I don't think this is a neutral."

Fezzik's power rating is well above the market: "We made Georgia way, way higher. We consider the Georgia loss to Auburn to be a complete aberration — Georgia outplayed Auburn handily."

And the transitive check: Florida caught a similar number against Texas and pulled the upset. Fezzik: "Georgia's way better than Texas. Georgia's gonna roll in this game." AJ agrees.

#2 Ohio State −6.5 at USC

Ohio State travels cross-country without Julian Sayin, starting a backup.

AJ: "I don't think I can back Ohio State laying almost a touchdown on the road with a quarterback I don't know anything about. Because what I do know is USC will score. USC can't really run it — but against Ohio State you probably weren't going to run it anyway, so they're going to chuck the ball around and put up some points. Can Ohio State keep up on the road in the first start for a new quarterback? It's hard for me to imagine that. Like we said about Utah, I'll wait for a seven — but the only way I'd look here is to the dog."

#13 Texas Tech −3.5 vs. #22 Arizona — a genuine pass

AJ: "I'm actually starting to get interested in Arizona. I don't like this Texas Tech team, but with them losing last week it kind of changed everything. I don't think we're paying a tax on Texas Tech anymore. I think the line here is pretty spot on, to be honest."

Worth noting: Bearman was leaning Arizona on Wednesday and said he'd decide Friday. AJ has independently arrived at "the line is fair." Two of our guys looked at the same game and both found the price honest — that's usually a sign to go elsewhere.

📊 THE MODEL LOPSIDED PLAYS — 7-2 ON THE YEAR

3-1 last week. Here are this week's three, with the house pushback on each.

1. North Dakota State −24 vs. UTEP (Fargodome)

The edges:

UTEP is 1-6, 0-3 in conference. Their road season: lost 61-7 at New Mexico, 52-17 at Michigan, 51-0 at Oklahoma.They're coming off a close home loss to San Jose State, 24-11.

Scott: "I don't see how UTEP scores any points here."

AJ says stay away, and the reason is good: "It felt like North Dakota State had the air let out of their balloon last week. They were in the discussion as a potential G6 tournament team, and losing at New Mexico ended that discussion. Two losses now, so it's not going to happen. So maybe there's a letdown spot."

But he can't take UTEP either: "UTEP is so bad. I've tried to play UTEP in some spots and it's impossible — they are dreadful, especially on the road. They let Michigan score 52 on them. I don't think Michigan has scored 52 points total the rest of the season combined. They let Oklahoma score 51, and I'm pretty sure Oklahoma hadn't scored 50 combined."

His landing spot: "I lean your way, but I think the letdown is real. You could see them winning by 20, winning comfortably — and not covering a huge number."

⭐ The resolution: UTEP team total UNDER

Scott's suggestion, and it's the right one. If you believe UTEP can't score but you're not sure NDSU is motivated enough to cover 24, the team total under isolates the half of the thesis everybody agrees on. That's how to bet a game where your own guys disagree about the spread.

2. UNLV −24 vs. Northern Illinois

UNLV in the all-blacks. Northern Illinois just let Hawaii travel to DeKalb and put up 56 points. Scott thinks UNLV puts up a 50-burger.

Northern Illinois, defensively:

AJ: "I have Northern Illinois power-rated as the second-worst team in the country — a full touchdown better than Sacramento State, but they're not playing Sacramento State here. Northern Illinois quit. They're done." And the travel is wearing them out: another trip out west this week.

3. Nebraska −7.5 vs. Washington — wait for the 7

All the edges go to Nebraska, and the biggest one is specific:

Scott: "I don't know if Washington is going to be able to pass it on the Huskers. If I can wait and see if I can get a seven, I'd be in favor of taking Nebraska."

AJ: "Washington is coming off a road win at Purdue, which I think was their first of the season — and Purdue's not dreadful, so maybe they're starting to figure things out a little bit. Nebraska has been a tough read for me. They should not have lost to Oregon, and the week before that they played Indiana really tough. I think Nebraska is probably the right side here. If I saw a seven, I could get involved."

⭐ AJ'S BEST BET: NORTHWESTERN +3.5 vs. OREGON

⭐ "I think this Oregon team is broken."

The offensive evidence — Oregon's last three games:

AJ: "They can't run the football. The passing game is dreadful. And I think most of this is coaching. When you lose Kenny Dillingham, and you replace him with Will Stein and you lose him too, and you see the success those guys have had — and then you promote from within, and now you've got a guy who clearly just can't run the offense. I don't think Dan Lanning is a very good coach. I know a lot of people disagree with me."

On the other side: "Northwestern has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten. They're not just 'good for Northwestern' — Northwestern is actually good. Oregon coming off a game they should have lost to Nebraska, being a three-and-a-half-point favorite here, does not jibe with me. I think you've got the wrong team favored."

"At this point, we've got to stop looking at what Oregon was expected to be, because they're not that. The offensive line is bad. The run game is zero. The offense is just broken, and their defense is not good enough to keep them in it."

And the spot: Oregon has three losses, is out of the playoff mix, and has Ohio State on deck. "Their fan base is over this team. There's no excitement anymore, no buzz — you just lost to Illinois. I don't think Autzen is going to be rocking like it normally is. And if Oregon still believes in anything, this is a look-ahead spot for them."

From David Bearman's Bettor Day appearance earlier this week

🏖️ MIAMI AT NORTH CAROLINA −14.5 — "THAT'S A BIG NUMBER THAT'S BARKING AT ME"

The one Bearman keeps circling back to, and the reasoning is pure spot analysis.

The setup: Miami goes to Chapel Hill to face Belichick's North Carolina, the week before a 1-versus-4 game at Notre Dame.

Bearman: "Do I think North Carolina's going to win? No. I don't think they're as talented as Miami. But if Miami's ever going to pull a Cristobal — that's what we call it — I would see no bigger spot than to lose the week before going to South Bend for what will be an epic 1-versus-4 game."

⭐ "If you told me Belichick pulled one over on Miami and Miami lost the one before the one, that wouldn't stun me either. I do lean the fourteen and a half. It's hard to fade Miami, but North Carolina has played well in good spots this year — and Cristobal is not a coach who coaches in a way that avoids look-ahead spots."

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🏈 THE BOARD

Jaguars vs. Colts — would be the pick, can't use it

The biggest favorite on the board and off their card. The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014 (they covered once, in 2024). Indianapolis just traded away its best offensive lineman and DeForest Buckner, Alec Pierce is hurt, Josh Downs requested a trade, and Sauce Gardner and Tyler Warren return but Warren's coming off a groin — "those tend to linger." Dan: "The Colts have nobody to cover Parker Washington and they can't stop the run. If there are no weather issues, Jacksonville should put up close to 30. As long as they take it seriously, I do not think the Colts can win this game. Cover, different story. Win, probably not." ⚠️ Check the weather — rain, supposed to let up around 1 and pick back up later.

⭐ Bengals vs. Titans — THE OFFICIAL PICK

Tennessee traded Jeffery Simmons, and then the injury report landed: Carnell Tate out, Tony Pollard out. Dan: "They had nothing to start with and now two of their key guys are out. This Titans defense does nothing well. And I mean nothing. They can't cover anybody and they can't really stop the run." Cincinnati put up 35 points in the second half against Baltimore. ⚠️ Rain in this one too, not hard.

Patriots at Dolphins — ⭐ the alternative if you don't have Jacksonville

Dan's board: "Bengals clearly one. Patriots and Jaguars tied at two — Jaguars slightly higher because of how I feel about the Colts." Miami won its first game by running all over the Jets, and Malik Willis is coming off a 99.6 QBR — against the Jets, which Mac notes is where every statistical milestone in life comes from. AJ Brown likely out. Dan: "I don't think the Dolphins win two games in a row."

Mac's superstitious counterweight — and it's a real database pull: New England is 12-25 visiting Miami since 1989, and since 2019 they're 1-6 both straight up and ATS there. Going back to 2012: 3-10. "The Dolphins haven't been good. This is just a surprising quirk of a cold-weather team going down there."

Cowboys vs. Cardinals — passing on outs

Dan: "Nobody will be shocked to hear the Cowboys defense sucks, and I've not set the bar low enough. I do think the Cardinals are good enough to move the ball. I am not thrilled backing the Cowboys with margin." The reason to wait: Dallas is at the Colts next week and hosts the Eagles on Thanksgiving. Mac's added worry — there's no urgency: a prediction market gives Dallas roughly a 50% chance to win the NFC East with a losing record, with the Eagles down to 7%. "They could lose this game, no big deal."

Steelers vs. Browns — pass, but they like the side

Discussed last week, and the numbers killed it. Pittsburgh is 5-2 with the 23rd offense and 14th defense by EPA(rbsdm.com); Cleveland is 6th on defense, 22nd on offense. Mac: "These are equivalent teams." Dan: "If we had two entries, I would be pounding the table for Pittsburgh. I do think Pittsburgh wins. I think it's an ugly, low-scoring game where maybe some variance goes against them. With one entry, I'm fine with passing." Cleveland hasn't won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh in 20-plus years. Their dream scenario: holding the Steelers until Week 16 at Tennessee.

Rams vs. Chargers — 🚩 BUYER BEWARE

Dan wants proof of life: "I want to see the Rams put two good offensive performances in a row. Last week they were awesome versus the Raiders. Two weeks ago they mailed it in versus the Cardinals. Three weeks ago they were awesome versus the Bills. The Chargers defense is actually pretty good — their offense gives them zero help, and that skews people's perception." Los Angeles is also his Thanksgiving-week plan, so he wasn't using them regardless.

Mac on the analytics gap, which is the interesting part: nfelo still rates the Rams the No. 1 power-rated team in the league — and rates them better now than it did preseason. "Which seems totally insane. But look at how they build the metric: they throw special teams out completely. They say it's random — if you get a kick blocked it's bad for that game but has no bearing going forward. Not sure I believe that entirely. The Rams have been 31st or 32nd in special teams DVOA the last few years, so it does seem to be carrying forward." Stafford is 10th in QBR; Davante Adams is currently benched. Mac's verdict: "The six and a half is kind of scary. I feel like the Chargers might sneak that one."

Commanders vs. Eagles — 🚩 BUYER BEWARE

Mac: "If it weren't for the Chargers game, I don't know how the Commanders get to be six-point favorites against anybody. Their home field advantage is historically non-existent — outside of the Chargers, the worst in the league. And I'm not sure the Eagles are done. I'm not sure they don't have some death rattles in them."

Dan talked himself in and back out: "After that Monday night performance — are the Eagles finally done? No more excuses. But I don't like the Commanders either. That seems like an expensive price and I don't trust their pass defense. I don't trust the Eagles' quarterback either, and it seems like they won't have their receivers. I think Saquon plays, but how effective is he? With one entry left, I just can't."

Buccaneers vs. Falcons — not worth a Week 8 pick

Mac: "I do think the Buccaneers win. But are you really going to spend a Week 8 survivor pick on a two-and-a-half-point favorite at home?" ⚠️ Dan expects true weather issues here — wind or heavy rain. "I don't know what you're going to have with Baker Mayfield. Last week he attempted eleven passes. You've got no information on Baker. If the weather is an issue, I would not be thrilled having them in survivor." They expect to use Tampa later, when the Bucs play the Saints. Falcons note: the defense has been better than expected, but Dan still doesn't like their quarterback.

📌 The Pick

Mac: "It sounds like we're circling the wagons. No real clear reason to save them for later weeks. The Titans are that bad and they just got worse, losing their best player and definitely their best defensive player — so the Bengals have that much less to worry about."

Dan's closing argument, and it's the one he keeps making: "If I give you three or four Bengals turnovers in this game — do the Titans even do anything with it? That's how you lose these games as big favorites. It is turnovers. And I have no faith in this Titans offense."

Dan expects this to be the most popular pick in every pool in the country. They're taking it anyway: "This is the time of year where planning is one week at a time."

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