College Football Free Plays 10/31/26

Week 9 Card: Two Plays

(3-0 last week — 25-12-1 YTD +11.4 Units) Last week was a good one as we swept our board. Normally, people would say load up after such a hot start, but that's where you may lose yourself. We stay diligent, and we look for edges and take advantage regardless of how many there are. Sometimes, the smallest cards, are the sharpest ones. On to Week 9.

1. Arizona at Texas Tech

12:00 p.m. ET · Jones AT&T Stadium

Arizona +4 -110, Fanatics

Texas Tech is 6-1 and I don't trust any of it. Look at the yardage instead of the record: Tech has been outgained in four of its six games against FBS opponents. Oregon State outgained them by 120 in Corvallis. Houston outgained them in Lubbock and Tech hung on 28-26. Colorado outgained them too, and Tech won 29-7 because it took the ball away four times. The defense has returned five interceptions for touchdowns this season — points that don't carry from one week to the next. Last Saturday the bounces ran out and Tech lost 37-24 at Cincinnati as a double-digit favorite.

Arizona is the team actually playing well. They're 6-1 too, and the only loss came at BYU. The last three weeks: 34-7 over Cincinnati, 52-31 at West Virginia, 39-3 over Iowa State. That's 125-41. The same Cincinnati team that just beat Texas Tech by 13 managed 7 points and 227 yards in Tucson. Noah Fifita has 18 touchdown passes against four interceptions; Texas Tech's Will Hammond has six touchdown passes all season.

Give me the points with the better quarterback.

History: against FBS opponents, Arizona gains 6.7 yards per play and allows 4.9. Texas Tech gains 6.1 and allows 5.6. Arizona has covered three straight; Texas Tech is 3-4 against the number.

Okay at +3.5 at reduced vig

2. Clemson at Florida State

7:00 p.m. ET · Doak Campbell Stadium

Florida State -5.5 -115, FanDuel

Florida State is 3-4, but look at how they lost. They dropped a 27-24 game to SMU, scored 36 at Alabama, and two weeks ago took unbeaten Miami to double overtime on the road as a 20-point underdog before losing 43-35.

Be precise about that one, because it's the strongest thing I've got and the raw number oversells it. That game was tied 28-28 at the end of regulation — Florida State's 35 includes an overtime touchdown. So the regulation figure is 28, not 35. It's still the most anyone has put on Miami this season, since nobody else has cleared 23, but 28 is the number that compares to theirs.

The one bad night was the Friday at Louisville. They've had two weeks to put the Miami loss behind them, and this is the spot to get something going.

Clemson just doesn't have it. They have 12 offensive touchdowns in seven games and only two came through the air. True freshman Tait Reynolds has one touchdown pass all season. Clemson hasn't scored 30 against an FBS opponent, scored 13 at home against the same Miami defense Florida State hung 28 on in regulation, and lost 20-16 at home to Virginia Tech last week as a favorite.

History: the favorite has won the last ten meetings in this series. Florida State has 29 offensive touchdowns to Clemson's 12, and Ashton Daniels has 12 touchdown passes by himself — Clemson has two as a team. Clemson has failed to cover three straight.

Okay at -6 at reduced vig

3. Washington at Nebraska

8:00 p.m. ET · Memorial Stadium

Nebraska −7 (GET THE 7, Pass at 7.5)

When Nebraska wins, it isn't close. Their four wins over FBS opponents came by 18, 25, 28 and 49. The two losses were three-point games against Indiana and at Oregon, both as underdogs, and they covered both. Nebraska has outgained or matched every FBS team it has played — 392-328 over Indiana, and they held Oregon to 242 yards in Eugene. The defense allows 16.8 points a game against FBS teams, and Anthony Colandrea has 14 touchdown passes against four interceptions.

Washington has been living on the edge all year. They beat Utah State by two at home as a four-touchdown favorite, lost at home to Minnesota as a 12-point favorite, and got run off their own field by Iowa, 41-24. They've scored 24 or fewer in five of their six games against FBS opponents.

And they still haven't said who starts at quarterback. Demond Williams Jr. hasn't played since breaking a rib against Iowa three weeks ago, and Jedd Fisch is holding the decision until kickoff. That's a lot of question marks to carry into Lincoln at night.

I'm getting a better number than the open here. I tracked this in Tuesday's column: FanDuel had Nebraska −9.5 when it posted and it's come down to −7.5. Two points toward Washington, and I'm buying the favorite after the move, not into it.

History: Nebraska is 6-1 against the number, and the one miss was by half a point against North Dakota. Against FBS opponents Nebraska gains 5.8 yards per play and allows 4.7; Washington gains 5.5 and allows 5.5.

This is a play at −7 and a pass at −7.5

Our College Football HQ has full matchup details on every game. Advanced stats like EPA/Play, Success Rate & Points per Opportunity, with direct links to the Trench Report for each game. All our data & analysis is included with an Insider Membership. Premium adds the picks: every play from every Bettor Day contributor, in one dashboard.Compare tiers →