College Football Saturday Week 8 Free Plays

Last week was one for the books, the record books that is, not the sportsbooks. Our College Football Plays went 18-5-3 last week across Premium & Free Plays. Let's look to stay hot here.

🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PLAYS

Jake Novakovich Free Play (3-0-1 last week — 22-12-1 YTD +8.4 Units) READ JAKE'S FULL ARTICLE HERE

LSU at Auburn

12:00 p.m. ET · Jordan-Hare Stadium

LSU −6.5 -124, FanDuel (Okay at -7 -110)

Two losses on the record and both of them lie about this team. LSU lost 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 at Kentucky — two road games decided by nine points put together. Everything else they've handled without drama: 51-10 over Clemson, 35-6 over Texas A&M, and a 31-0 shutout of Mississippi State that buried a 17.5-point number. That isn't a team limping into late October. That's a team that has lost two coin flips.

Auburn walks in off the best afternoon they've had in years, winning 27-24 at Georgia as a three-touchdown underdog — my own column had DraftKings moving that number from −16.5 all the way to −20.5 before kickoff, four points toward the No. 1 team in the country, and Auburn won it outright on a last-second field goal in Athens.

Everybody remembers the result. What I remember is what it cost: a full emotional, physical road upset, and then a noon kickoff seven days later against the one opponent on the schedule that just pitched a shutout. The crowd will be loud early. I want LSU after that.

History: LSU is 5-2 with both losses coming on the road by one score. Auburn is 2-4 against the number, and their only two covers all season were a blowout of Southern Miss and last week's upset.

⭐ AJ HOFFMAN BEST BET

BYU at UCF

3:30 p.m. ET · Acrisure Bounce House

UCF +7.5 -110, BetMGM

AJ: "This is a horrific spot for BYU. The travel is obviously very tough. That was such an emotional game, especially coming down to the very end. You had the field storming — you could tell it was a huge deal for them."

"These are the spots that we wait for in college football. These are the spots that we circle weeks in advance. If BYU beats Notre Dame, this is the spot where we want to fade BYU. And I don't think it could come at a better time — going to a tough place to play all the way across the country."

🏠 And AJ's extra angle

"Central Florida is coming off a two-game road trip — at Houston, at Oklahoma State — getting home for the first time in a couple of weeks. I think that's a big deal. They've historically been very good in that building. It's just too good of a number to not back the dog."

⛰️ SCOTT'S ALTITUDE ADVANTAGE

HOUSTON at UTAH

10:15 p.m. ET · Rice-Eccles Stadium

UTAH -6.5 -120, DraftKings

Utah at home in primetime (7 PM-plus starts) since 2020: 13-5 straight up, 14-4 ATS. They have won seven straight, both straight up and against the spread.

"The last time they lost was November 2024 — they lost to Iowa State as 3.5-point dogs, but they covered.

⭐ AJ's hard-and-fast rule

"It's bad business to bet against Utah at home. It's one of my hard and fast rules — I just don't do it. You can't talk me into betting against the Utes at home. Especially at night. It's Utah or pass for me."

His one caveat on the sample: "Remember, 2024 was the year Utah was on a roller coaster at quarterback — they couldn't keep anyone on the field."

🎰 THE SYSTEM PLAY: #19 TEXAS −3.5 vs. #7 OLE MISS

The two straight-up losses: Georgia over Alabama, and Iowa's final-second score against Michigan. The ATS slip came last week when Houston won by three and didn't cover.

🤘 AJ IS ON TEXAS 🤘

AJ: "I'll be on Texas this week. We've seen Arch respond when he's been bad in the past. When he's posted these horrific games like he did last week, typically he has bounced back. And if anything's going to get him right, it's playing against the Ole Miss defense, which has not been very good."

"The Ole Miss offense is obviously fantastic. But this Texas defense is elite. They'll be without Colin Simmons, which sucks — he's an absolute game wrecker, probably the best defensive player in the game so far this year. But I just think the depth of Texas's defense is too much. I think the system will ride again. I think Texas gets the job done."

⭐ And a second play on the same game: "I think it's an over as well. I think this is a sneaky high-scoring game. I think Texas puts up more points than they have in a couple of weeks."

🏠 HOUSE SPLIT: DAVID BEARMAN IS ALL-IN THE OTHER WAY

Worth flagging, because it's the same game in the same week from the same site.

On Wednesday's pod, David Bearman was pushing all-in on OLE MISS +3 — "I am splashing the pot whenever the heck I want," "Ole Miss is the better team and it's not even close," and the eye-test manifesto: "There's models, there's systems, there's stats, there's guts — and then there's the freaking eyeballs."

💻 THE MODEL PLAY

BOISE STATE at WASHINGTON STATE

6:00 p.m. ET · Martin Stadium

BOISE -13 -105, Caesars

The model’s biggest lopsided matchup of the week goes back to the well. For the second straight week it’s picking on Washington State

The case for Boise: No. 21 Boise State has a ranking and a conference race to protect. Washington State looked like it emptied the tank in that Oregon State game. AJ Hoffman is with the model: “Gun to head, I’m laying two touchdowns with Boise.” He knows Pullman is a tough trip, but he thinks Wazzu is simply too thin to keep pace and Boise has far more to play for.

SUPERCONTEST COLLEGE CARD WEEK 8

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