College Football Free Plays 10/24/26

Week 8 Card: Three Plays

(3-0-1 last week — 22-12-1 YTD +8.4 Units) A bounce back week last week and we're back on track. Thin card this week and with good reason. I isolated these select spots where the market should move, so make sure you shop for the right number.

1. LSU at Auburn

12:00 p.m. ET · Jordan-Hare Stadium

LSU −6.5 -124, FanDuel (Okay at -7 -110)

Two losses on the record and both of them lie about this team. LSU lost 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 at Kentucky — two road games decided by nine points put together. Everything else they've handled without drama: 51-10 over Clemson, 35-6 over Texas A&M, and a 31-0 shutout of Mississippi State that buried a 17.5-point number. That isn't a team limping into late October. That's a team that has lost two coin flips.

Auburn walks in off the best afternoon they've had in years, winning 27-24 at Georgia as a three-touchdown underdog — my own column had DraftKings moving that number from −16.5 all the way to −20.5 before kickoff, four points toward the No. 1 team in the country, and Auburn won it outright on a last-second field goal in Athens.

Everybody remembers the result. What I remember is what it cost: a full emotional, physical road upset, and then a noon kickoff seven days later against the one opponent on the schedule that just pitched a shutout. The crowd will be loud early. I want LSU after that.

History: LSU is 5-2 with both losses coming on the road by one score. Auburn is 2-4 against the number, and their only two covers all season were a blowout of Southern Miss and last week's upset.

2. Sacramento State at Ball State

3:30 p.m. ET · Scheumann Stadium

Ball State -14.5 -105, BetMGM

Sacramento State has stopped competing and the scores say it plainly. They're 1-6, and the only win was 52-0 over an FCS opponent. The last three weeks read like a white flag: beaten 35-6 by UMass at home, 38-10 at Bowling Green, 48-7 at home by Ohio. Ninety-eight points in the hole across three Saturdays.

Ball State is no juggernaut, but they've covered three straight and they won 32-31 at Bowling Green — the same field where Sacramento State got beaten by 28.

Shop it, and know what you're buying. I flagged this number in Tuesday's column: BetMGM opened Ball State −11 and it's −14.5 now. Over three points, all of it since the Sunday open. Look for a 14 if you can find it.

History: Sacramento State has been outscored by 98 points over its last three. Ball State's one turn as a real favorite came against Stony Brook: they laid 14 and won 41-17.

3. Ole Miss at Texas

7:30 p.m. ET · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Over 53.5 -110, TheScoreBet

This one is about Ole Miss and nothing else. They play fast, and they've been in some of the loudest games on the board: a 79-point game with Louisville and an 80-point game at Florida. The offense hasn't had a quiet week all year — 400 yards or more in all six games.

The other half is what they give back. Ole Miss allows 390 yards a game, and both times a real offense got hold of that defense the scoreboard ran to 79 and 80.

History: Ole Miss games have averaged 61.3 combined points on 138 combined plays. Their offense has gained 400+ yards in every game; their defense has allowed 469 yards to Louisville and 498 to Florida — the two afternoons that produced 79 and 80.

One more thing: the total opened at 54.5 back on September 1 and has drifted to 53.5. I'm getting a slightly better number than the open, not a stale one.

Jake Novakovich is a contributor to Bettor Day. You can follow him on X @CashOnSaturdays. Lines move: re-check before you play. Check out our FREE ODDS PAGE

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