College Football Saturday Week 2 & NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks

It's the first weekend full of NFL and College Football and we couldn't be more excited. Today marks the debut episode of Bettor Day's new Survivor Podcast,"Dan & Macken Survive the NFL" Listen to episodes every week throughout the NFL season.

We also have College Football Free Plays from Jake Novakovich and a Best Bet from AJ Hoffman from the Bettor Day Football Show. Plus Scott Seidenberg's Westgate CFB SuperContest card. Good Luck and let's have a weekend!

CFB FREE PLAY: Oregon at Oklahoma State

12:00 Eastern · Boone Pickens Stadium

Oregon −23.5 

Start with the honest part: Oregon laid 24.5 against Boise State last week and did not come close, trailing 17-7 before winning 34-27 with 10 penalties and a muffed punt. I am recommending them at a lower number seven days later, and you deserve to know that up front.

Here's why I'll still lay it. Boise State is genuinely good — a playoff-caliber Group of Six team. Oklahoma State looks bad. Same price, vastly different opponent, and I'd much rather lay 23.5 against this team than 24.5 against that one. Oregon also hung 69-3 on the Cowboys a year ago.

Risk: it's a road lay, not the home demolition it was last fall. And Oregon just showed it can start slow and sleepwalk through a half — against a worse opponent, that's how a 30-point win becomes a 17-point win. 

Check out Jake's FULL College Football Week 2 Free Play article

⭐ AJ Hoffman BEST BET: FLORIDA ATLANTIC +4.5 (and some moneyline)

(From the Bettor Day Football Show & Featured in yesterday's Football Friday newsletter)

AJ: "I'm looking to fade Navy. I thought they'd be a pretty bad team — then last week they looked really good beating up Towson, a team that isn't even good at the FCS level. Meanwhile Florida Atlantic played Florida and got beat up by superior athletes, exactly as you'd expect.

There's an overreaction on both ends. You thought Navy was bad, now maybe they're not. You thought FAU might be good — they WERE last year — then they play Florida and maybe they're not.

FAU can throw it around. And they were one of the worst teams in the country in turnover margin last year — I think that gets fixed. And Navy isn't going to turn it over a bunch.

I like FAU. I'll play some moneyline, but 4.5 is the official number."

(Listen to the Bettor Day Football Show for more CFB & NFL Breakdowns)

CFB SuperContest Card

(A disappointing 2-5 in Week 1, but if there's any week to have a bad week, it's the first week)

Follow the Bettor Day entry all season

NFL SURVIVOR WEEK 1

📋 HOW THIS WORKS

Every week you get three categories:

Why the sharp alternatives matter more this year: Dan: "If you're in the new Splash contest in the US — good luck, because you now need to use TWENTY-FOUR teams, not the nineteen or twenty Mac and I usually do."

📊 THE TRACK RECORD

Fezzik's estimate: you should win about two-thirds of your Survivor picks.

Mackenzie: "We made it to Black Friday. We made it deep last year. We made it deep in our first year — three of five years we've made it well past week eight. You can't do that if you're only picking 67%. And we have never lost week one. Don't plan to start now."

⭐ THE OFFICIAL PICK: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Case for the Jaguars

Dan: "The Browns don't have a quarterback. You don't need to outthink anybody there."

🗓️ THE SCHEDULE ARGUMENT (the real reason)

Dan: "A lot of people say save a team. I don't like saving teams unless you can connect a WEEK to them.

Look at the Jaguars' schedule after this: Browns, at Denver, vs New England, at Cincinnati, vs Philly, vs Houston — with weeks five and six in LONDON — then the bye, Colts, at Ravens.

I don't even have an argument for a second team in that stretch. It's now or never up until week ten. After that it's the Titans in week 12 and the Commanders in week 17. There just aren't many games where you feel Survivor-level confident."

Mackenzie's add: "Deshaun Watson hasn't played good football in five years — which, by the way, is the last time the Jaguars hosted week one. They're usually on the road. In their entire history they're 10-6 ATS and 9-7 straight up at home. There's something to playing in Jacksonville early — the sweltering heat and humidity is something Cleveland isn't used to."

The one concern: Dan: "I don't like their offensive line. I don't want to hold a team with a weak offensive line, because if they lose somebody they're even worse."

⭐ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The biggest favorite on the board at -9.5.

Mackenzie: "I think the Chargers might be really good — a team with a few different opportunities. I'm not sold on Trevor Lawrence. Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence have a lot of similarities — tape people, analytics people, a lot of different backers, and I'm not exactly sold on either one. But I'm more sold on the rest of the Chargers roster and the defense.

Here's the week one flip: later in the year you're saying 'this team is better than people think.' In week one, you're asking who you want in your CHAMBER to fire off later. For me that's the Chargers."

Dan's counterpoint: "From week three until week 10 they play a lot of 50-50 games — and the Chargers aren't the greatest at staying healthy. After week two, the next real chance is week 11 vs the Jets, then week 14 at the Raiders, maybe week 16 at Miami."

🎯 THE WEEK 2 SETUP

Mackenzie: "Week two might be the look — the Chargers host the Raiders. Kubiak could be really good, or more likely the Raiders could be pretty bad. If they lose or even struggle against the Dolphins, you'll get a ballooning of that line in week two. Hold the Chargers for week two."

⭐ THE SHARP ALTERNATIVE: PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Trigger: Tua's Injury

(Cooper Rush OFFICIALLY in at Quarterback - Line up to Steelers -6)

The Falcons Can't Pressure Rodgers

Dan: "How do you rattle Aaron Rodgers? Make him take hits, get a quick pass rush. Well — one of their pass rushers could probably be in jail right now, and the other one is hurt. I know they have really good corners, but if you don't have a pass rush, I don't know how much the corners matter.

I also don't like their run defense — the Falcons couldn't stop the run last year and I think their defense is worse. I could see Pittsburgh running up and down all day."

📊 THE COACHING ATS DEEP DIVE

Mackenzie on McCarthy: "That is not an accident. Maybe because he's kind of fat, has that fat neck, talks very Midwestern — not elegant or urbane or sophisticated — he doesn't get the credit some more tenured coaches get. But 55.6% ATS over 300 games."

Dan's schedule note: "Looking ahead — week four at Cleveland (Thursday night) and week eight vs Cleveland are really the only other spots in the first eight weeks. In the back half they'll be a dog almost every game. There aren't a lot of Steelers opportunities this year, so use them now."

⚠️ BUYER BEWARE

Dan: CHICAGO BEARS

"They had another person get hurt on defense and it wasn't very good to start with. Carolina's defense is good enough to slow down Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson — they have the corners for the receivers and a solid pass rush.

The question is: how many points do the Bears need to score for you to feel comfortable? Thirty plus? Because their defense isn't stopping anybody. What if the Panthers get 24 and you're struggling on offense?

Bryce Young sucks. But this defense offers the opportunity."

Mackenzie's history lesson: "There was a time Marc Trestman was the offensive genius who would rescue Chicago. There was a time Matt Nagy had Mitch Trubisky in the playoffs. It's in the water somewhere — they have NEVER had a consistent offense.

And last year: a lot of fourth quarter comebacks from two and ten percent win probability, a lot of turnover luck, Caleb Williams' fadeaway pass over the Packers. If you don't get that in the fourth quarter of that playoff game, the tenor around Chicago is very different. I am not convinced they're saved from their hundred years in the wilderness.

I'm not a big Carolina guy — but they put up 30 on the Rams in their last game and were driving in the fourth quarter with a chance to win."

Mackenzie: RAIDERS over DOLPHINS

"I keep saying the Dolphins are going to go 1-16 and they're going to win against the Raiders. It would not surprise me. There's way too much hype for the Raiders — they just lost their tight end, there are too many moving piecesfor me to think they win as a 3.5-point favorite."

🚫 The Games They Stayed Away From

🦃 THE THANKSGIVING TRAP

On the Lions: "It's a fine pick if you want to diversify. But from the game theory side — we have Thanksgiving week again this year. If you're in the Circa, absolutely NOT the Lions, because it's Lions vs Bears that week. Do you really want to use a Thanksgiving game in week one?"

The Thanksgiving preview: "I looked at that schedule. Packers at Rams will probably be our Wednesday pick that week — and that could be an NFC title game. That's tough pickings.

Best case scenario is that the Bears are as bad as they looked STATISTICALLY last year — around the 20th best team despite the turnovers and comebacks. Then having the Lions at home on a holiday they're accustomed to is very advantageous."

🔑 THE STRATEGY NOTE WORTH SAVING

Mackenzie: "You can't only pick the good teams in the good divisions — you'll run out of games. The Steelers have tough games against the Bengals and Ravens.

But you can pick out the BAD teams and play against them every week. There's no reason we can't pick against the Falcons five times this year. No reason we can't pick against the Browns six times. You can repeat opponents — you just can't repeat teams."

💭 Why Survivor Works

Mackenzie: "People like to bet a little to win a lot — that's why they like parlays. Survivor has the best of both worlds: you're one of a thousand, or a hundred, or ten with your buddies, not expected to win but you could.

And you like to get a win on the board. You like to have the chalk and say that one I picked correctly — and you get a lot of those in Survivor, because you SHOULD win."

📅 Looking Ahead

Mackenzie: "I might be picking the Niners next week — they're now 11.5-point favorites after a little movement off the dominant win. It'd be disappointing to get rid of them so early. But do I like the way our schedule is lining up."