Week 2 Card: Five Games, Six Plays, Strongest First
(3-2 Last Week / 4-3 YTD) The one worth naming: I had Clemson-LSU under 50.5, wrote that the risk "has a name, and the name is Lane Kiffin," and then watched Kiffin hang 51 with 644 yards. I named the right risk and bet into it anyway. That matters this week, because play No. 6 below is another LSU under.
1. Old Dominion at Virginia Tech
12:00 Eastern · Lane Stadium
Virginia Tech −18.5
This is a James Franklin team and the market hasn't caught up to how good it's going to be. Virginia Tech went 3-8 against the number a year ago, and books are still pricing last year's roster. I expect the Hokies to be a nearly weekly play for me this season.
History: Franklin is 32-16-1 against the number laying seven to 24 points across his career, including a 15-0-1 run from 2020 through 2023. Tech lays 18.5 here, squarely in that band.
2. Oregon at Oklahoma State
12:00 Eastern · Boone Pickens Stadium
Oregon −23.5
Start with the honest part: Oregon laid 24.5 against Boise State last week and did not come close, trailing 17-7 before winning 34-27 with 10 penalties and a muffed punt. I am recommending them at a lower number seven days later, and you deserve to know that up front.
Here's why I'll still lay it. Boise State is genuinely good — a playoff-caliber Group of Six team. Oklahoma State looks bad. Same price, vastly different opponent, and I'd much rather lay 23.5 against this team than 24.5 against that one. Oregon also hung 69-3 on the Cowboys a year ago.
Risk: it's a road lay, not the home demolition it was last fall. And Oregon just showed it can start slow and sleepwalk through a half — against a worse opponent, that's how a 30-point win becomes a 17-point win.
3. Western Kentucky at Georgia
12:45 Eastern · Sanford Stadium
Over 55.5
Western Kentucky plays fast and throws it. More snaps, more possessions, more chances to score. Georgia's first team should move at will early against a defense a tier below it, and 55.5 is low enough that the starters clear most of it before the clock-control second half ever matters.
History: heavy home favorites laying 35 to 44 have gone over in these early-season spots — 64 overs to 48 unders across 2023-2025. The blowout doesn't sink the over; the favorite scores enough early that the number falls.
4. Memphis at Boise State
6:00 Eastern · Albertsons Stadium
Boise State −8.5
Boise looked like a genuinely good football team again last week, and there's proof rather than an eye test: they went into Oregon as a 24.5-point underdog and lost by seven, covering comfortably on the road against a top-five opponent. Memphis is live, but at home I think Boise is clearly the better team, and 8.5 is a number I'll lay.
History: Boise is 10-3 against the number as a home favorite over the last two seasons.
Risk: the letdown is obvious. Boise emptied the tank in Eugene, got a week of national praise for it, and now hosts a Memphis team nobody outside the AAC is talking about. The market has also almost certainly repriced Boise upward on that performance.
5. Louisiana Tech at LSU
7:30 Eastern · Tiger Stadium
Louisiana Tech +35.5 (0.25u) & Under 55.5 (0.25u)
A pure schedule spot, and small on purpose. LSU is sandwiched: Clemson is behind them, and their biggest game of the year is next week — Lane Kiffin's return to Ole Miss, the program where he built his name. A team with a game that emotional seven days out can let a tune-up slip, and Louisiana Tech is a competent program that won't fold. The points and the under are the same bet: LSU wins, but the game stays modest.
History: the under is the stronger half. Kiffin's big-favorite games at Ole Miss leaned under — 8 of 12 when laying 21 or more, and three of four such spots in 2024 — as sky-high totals outran even his lopsided wins. He covered a more ordinary 7-5 as a big favorite, so the points lean on the look-ahead more than the number.
Risk: this is the play I like least and I'm sizing it accordingly. LSU just put 51 on Clemson with 644 total yards and gave up 145 — that is not a team that needed anything from that game, and it's not a team whose offense looks like it stays under anything. Sam Leavitt threw for 230 and ran for 113 in his debut. I am arguing that a historical Ole Miss trend outweighs what this specific LSU offense did seven days ago, and I might be wrong about that. I also had an LSU under last week and lost it.
Jake Novakovich is a contributor to Bettor Day. You can follow him on X @CashOnSaturdays. Lines move: re-check before you play.
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