NFL Kickoff Preview & Same Game Parlay

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman preview tonights NFL Kickoff game between the Seahawks and the Patriots and cook up a Same Game Parlay.

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🏈 HAPPY NEW YEAR — THE NFL IS BACK

Tonight: Patriots at Seahawks. A Super Bowl rematch to open the season.

The trivia: This is only the THIRD time the NFL has opened with the previous season's Super Bowl rematch — joining Panthers-Broncos and the 1970 Chiefs-Vikings. It's the 11th Super Bowl rematch the following year overall, and the home team has won seven of ten.

📊 THE LINE

(The Bettor Day Line is now live on the new NFL HQ schedule grid, along with the full market report.)

The Side: A Lean, Not a Play

Bearman: "The number is probably where it should be. If I were in a pool that made me pick all 16 games, I'd take the 3.5 — because these teams are a lot closer than last year's Super Bowl said. The Patriots DID get better with AJ Brown and another year of Drake Maye. Seattle, I don't know if they got better."

Scott: "I'm not betting the side. If you can grab a 3.5, it's probably the sharp play — a lot of books have already come to 3."

🎯 THE PLAY: UNDER 44.5

⚠️ THE PATRIOTS STAT THAT MATTERS

Last season's regular season offense: 28.8 points per game. Led the league in pass yards, 8.48 per play, second in total yards per play at 6.18.

They Played ZERO Top-10 Defenses.

Bearman: "Zero. Not a zilch. You and I played the exact same number of top-10 defenses the Patriots did.

Then they got to the playoffs and played ALL top-10 defenses — Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Seahawks. And lo and behold:"

"Congratulations — 14 wins, AFC champions, your five-year drought is over. They didn't beat anybody good. They set an NFL record for wins against teams with losing records. I want to see how this team stacks up when the schedule gets tough. It starts tonight."

⚠️ AND THE DARNOLD SPLIT

Plus: a 3.5% turnover rate — worst among qualifying quarterbacks. And against top-10 defenses: 5 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a 75.3 rating.

Bearman: "He threw for 4,100 yards, 25 touchdowns, a 92 rating, and won a Super Bowl. He did not play well against good defenses — which the Patriots had. And you saw a Super Bowl with absolutely no offense."

📉 THE ZERO-PRESEASON-SNAPS REPORT (UPDATED)

Both Drake Maye and Sam Darnold took ZERO preseason snaps.

Since 2021 — 49 quarterbacks with no preseason action, in Week 1:

📊 THE KICKOFF GAME STAT

Bearman: "The last eight NFL kickoff games — opening night, banners, rings — have averaged 41.3 total points. Only THREE of the sixteen teams in those eight games reached 30+.

That's three points below tonight's number. I would love to see a 45 — but I am definitely on the under 44.5."

💡 THE TIMING PLAY

Scott: "Wait until close to kickoff. The public is going to bet the favorite and the over — that's what the public does.This is the first regular season NFL game since the Super Bowl, everyone's excited, and maybe they won money on college football this weekend.

The first half: FanDuel has 22.5 while most books show 21.5. "That's a dead number — it's not going to be 22 points — but it gets you over 21. I like the first half under north of 21.5"

🎓 THE SAME GAME PARLAY LESSON

⚠️ Tip of the Day

"NEVER, EVER do a same game parlay without getting the true value — through a boost or REVERSE CORRELATION"

Scott: "The way to maximize is with things that are INVERSELY correlated."

⭐ THE BUILD (and the math)

The Payouts Prove the Point

Scott: "Because how could two players go over and the game still go under? It doesn't make sense to the computer, so it can never happen — and we get a BETTER payout than the true odds."

The Legs Explained

🏃 Jadarian Price OVER 51.5

Scott: "Kubiak is gone, but it's a very similar run scheme with the new install — and the Trench Report's biggest edge in the game is Seattle's run blocking."

Bearman: "He's going to get the lion's share of the carries — it's about the only thing that scares me with that team this year, they don't have a true running back. And it's a low number: he has as many NFL rushing yards as I do."

🎯 JSN OVER 81.5 — "You Won't See This Number Again"

Bearman: "Anybody watch what this gentleman did last year?

• 84+ yards in FOURTEEN of 17 regular season games
• A league-high 105.5 yards per game
• Nine 100-yard games — two more than any other player in football
• 10+ targets in more than half his games, including ten in the Super Bowl against this same defense

It's a good defense and Gonzalez is a great corner who'll shadow him. JSN could get 81.5 by ACCIDENT.

This number was never this low at any point last season. You will not see it again the rest of the year — maybe when they play the Rams on the road and those corners are shutting people down. You're buying low."

(Full transparency: they shut him down in the Super Bowl. "But nobody did anything in the Super Bowl.")

🤝 Romeo Doubs OVER 35.5 — The Chemistry Play

Scott: "Christopher Price of the Boston Globe told me the player to look out for is Romeo Doubs — the Doubs-Maye connection has looked fantastic in camp and especially the joint practices. If they had that in August, it comes to fruition tonight, especially if AJ Brown is drawing double coverage or a safety over the top."

Bearman: "People are overplaying the AJ Brown hand. Will he end up with 1,200 yards and be the leading receiver? Probably. But it's week one, you've never had the connection outside of camp against nobody, and AJ Brown is not the best guy at adapting to change on a daily basis. If he doesn't get the ball on the first drive, he may lose his mind."

🔀 THE ALTERNATE BUILDS

Bearman's addition — Sam Darnold UNDER 228.5 passing yards:

"I'm just not sure he hits 228.5 — and I think he NEEDS to for them to win. Not many guys got to that mark against the New England defense last year, just like not many did it against Seattle's."

Scott: "That two-leg is threading the needle — but I think it's doable." Bearman: "Not bad." (He caps himself at four legs: "I'd have to chop one and hope I don't pick the wrong one.")

🏈 TOUCHDOWN CALL

Bearman: Jadarian Price. Scott: George Holani (+185).

Both agree: "There will be a rushing touchdown for the Seattle Seahawks tonight — whether it's Price or Holani."

(And the honest note on first-TD props: "We already know they're negative EV bets." Have fun, but know what they are.)

🔮 The Final Read

Bearman's score: Seattle 20, New England 17.

Scott's score: Seattle 23, New England 20.

🏆 THE CONTEST IS LIVE — PICKS ARE UP

Games are already postable for Week 1. The Bearman Super Contest on Splash Sports — first of its kind, five picks a week, SIDES AND TOTALS, with prizes through League Safe.

And the challenge stands: the highest finisher who subscribes to Bettor Day but not Bearman Bets (or vice versa) wins a free year of the other. Bragging rights on the line.

📅 Coming Up

TOMORROW

• Mackenzie Rivers on the pod — Rams-49ers same game parlay from Melbourne
• 🎬 The Bettor Day Football Show, 2 PM ET — Scott, Fezzik & AJ Hoffman. NFL Week 1, college football Week 2, and a walkthrough of the Bettor Day lines, trench reports, and market reports.

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