> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Wednesday, September 9th, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/wednesday-september-9th-2026/ - Published: 2026-09-09T10:00:04.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-09T10:00:03.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## NFL Kickoff Preview & Same Game Parlay *Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman preview tonights NFL Kickoff game between the Seahawks and the Patriots and cook up a Same Game Parlay.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) # 🏈 HAPPY NEW YEAR — THE NFL IS BACK **Tonight: Patriots at Seahawks. A Super Bowl rematch to open the season.** **The trivia:** This is only the **THIRD time** the NFL has opened with the previous season's Super Bowl rematch — joining **Panthers-Broncos** and the **1970 Chiefs-Vikings**. It's the **11th** Super Bowl rematch the following year overall, and **the home team has won seven of ten.** --- ## 📊 THE LINE | Source | Number | | ------------------ | ------------------------------------- | | **BettorDay line** | **Seattle -3.47** | | Consensus | Seattle -3.25 | | FanDuel | **Seattle -3.5 (-104)** — reduced vig | | Total | **44.5** | *(The Bettor Day Line is now live on the new NFL HQ schedule grid, along with the full market report.)* --- ## The Side: A Lean, Not a Play **Bearman:** "**The number is probably where it should be.** If I were in a pool that made me pick all 16 games, **I'd take the 3.5** — because these teams are a lot closer than last year's Super Bowl said. **The Patriots DID get better** with AJ Brown and another year of Drake Maye. **Seattle, I don't know if they got better.**" **Scott:** "I'm not betting the side. **If you can grab a 3.5, it's probably the sharp play** — a lot of books have already come to 3." --- # 🎯 THE PLAY: UNDER 44.5 --- ## ⚠️ THE PATRIOTS STAT THAT MATTERS **Last season's regular season offense:** **28.8 points per game.** Led the league in pass yards, **8.48 per play**, second in total yards per play at 6.18. ### They Played ZERO Top-10 Defenses. **Bearman:** "**Zero. Not a zilch. You and I played the exact same number of top-10 defenses the Patriots did.** **Then they got to the playoffs and played ALL top-10 defenses** — Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Seahawks. **And lo and behold:**" | Playoff Split | Number | | -------------------- | -------- | | Points per game | **16.8** | | Total yards per game | **248** | "**Congratulations — 14 wins, AFC champions, your five-year drought is over. They didn't beat anybody good.** They set an NFL record for wins against teams with losing records. **I want to see how this team stacks up when the schedule gets tough. It starts tonight.**" --- ## ⚠️ AND THE DARNOLD SPLIT | Span | QBR | | ------------------ | -------------------------------------------------- | | **First 10 weeks** | **\~78 — led the league** (9.5 yards per dropback) | | **Week 11 on** | **35.3 — 27th in football** | **Plus:** a **3.5% turnover rate — worst among qualifying quarterbacks.** And against top-10 defenses: **5 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a 75.3 rating.** **Bearman:** "He threw for 4,100 yards, 25 touchdowns, a 92 rating, and won a Super Bowl. **He did not play well against good defenses — which the Patriots had. And you saw a Super Bowl with absolutely no offense.**" --- ## 📉 THE ZERO-PRESEASON-SNAPS REPORT (UPDATED) **Both Drake Maye and Sam Darnold took ZERO preseason snaps.** **Since 2021 — 49 quarterbacks with no preseason action, in Week 1:** | Metric | Margin | | --------------------- | ----------------- | | ATS | **\-2.08** | | Team total | **UNDER by 2.32** | | **Game total** | **UNDER by 2.67** | | First half ATS | **\-1.78** | | First half team total | UNDER by 0.98 | --- ## 📊 THE KICKOFF GAME STAT **Bearman:** "The last eight NFL kickoff games — opening night, banners, rings — **have averaged 41.3 total points. Only THREE of the sixteen teams in those eight games reached 30+.** **That's three points below tonight's number. I would love to see a 45 — but I am definitely on the under 44.5.**" --- ### 💡 THE TIMING PLAY **Scott:** "Wait until close to kickoff. **The public is going to bet the favorite and the over — that's what the public does.**This is the first regular season NFL game since the Super Bowl, everyone's excited, and maybe they won money on college football this weekend. **The first half:** FanDuel has **22.5** while most books show 21.5\. "**That's a dead number** — it's not going to be 22 points — **but it gets you over 21.** I like the first half under north of 21.5" --- # 🎓 THE SAME GAME PARLAY LESSON ## ⚠️ Tip of the Day **"NEVER, EVER do a same game parlay without getting the true value — through a boost or REVERSE CORRELATION"** **Scott:** "**The way to maximize is with things that are INVERSELY correlated.**" --- ## ⭐ THE BUILD (and the math) | Leg | Bet | Why | | --- | ------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | 1 | **UNDER 44.5** | Everything above | | 2 | **Jadarian Price OVER 51.5 rushing yards** | Trench Report: **the largest edge in the game is Seattle's run blocking vs New England's run defense** | | 3 | **JSN OVER 81.5 receiving yards** | See below | | 4 | **Romeo Doubs OVER 35.5 receiving yards** | The chemistry angle | ### The Payouts Prove the Point | Build | FanDuel Price | True Uncorrelated Price | | -------------------------------- | ------------- | ----------------------- | | **3 legs** (under + Price + JSN) | **+645** | **+573** | | **4 legs** (add Doubs) | **+1474** | **+1163** | **Scott:** "Because how could two players go over and the game still go under? **It doesn't make sense to the computer, so it can never happen — and we get a BETTER payout than the true odds.**" --- ## The Legs Explained ### 🏃 Jadarian Price OVER 51.5 **Scott:** "Kubiak is gone, **but it's a very similar run scheme with the new install** — and the Trench Report's biggest edge in the game is Seattle's run blocking." **Bearman:** "**He's going to get the lion's share of the carries** — it's about the only thing that scares me with that team this year, they don't have a true running back. **And it's a low number: he has as many NFL rushing yards as I do.**" ### 🎯 JSN OVER 81.5 — "You Won't See This Number Again" **Bearman:** "**Anybody watch what this gentleman did last year?** - **84+ yards in FOURTEEN of 17 regular season games** - **A league-high 105.5 yards per game** - **Nine 100-yard games — two more than any other player in football** - 10+ targets in more than half his games, **including ten in the Super Bowl against this same defense** **It's a good defense and Gonzalez is a great corner who'll shadow him. JSN could get 81.5 by ACCIDENT.** **This number was never this low at any point last season. You will not see it again the rest of the year** — maybe when they play the Rams on the road and those corners are shutting people down. **You're buying low.**" *(Full transparency: they shut him down in the Super Bowl. "But nobody did anything in the Super Bowl.")* ### 🤝 Romeo Doubs OVER 35.5 — The Chemistry Play **Scott:** "Christopher Price of the Boston Globe told me **the player to look out for is Romeo Doubs — the Doubs-Maye connection has looked fantastic in camp and especially the joint practices.** If they had that in August, it comes to fruition tonight, **especially if AJ Brown is drawing double coverage or a safety over the top.**" **Bearman:** "**People are overplaying the AJ Brown hand.** Will he end up with 1,200 yards and be the leading receiver? Probably. **But it's week one, you've never had the connection outside of camp against nobody, and AJ Brown is not the best guy at adapting to change on a daily basis. If he doesn't get the ball on the first drive, he may lose his mind.**" --- ## 🔀 THE ALTERNATE BUILDS **Bearman's addition — Sam Darnold UNDER 228.5 passing yards:** "**I'm just not sure he hits 228.5 — and I think he NEEDS to for them to win.** Not many guys got to that mark against the New England defense last year, **just like not many did it against Seattle's.**" | Build | Price | | -------------------------------------------- | --------- | | **Add Darnold under to the 4-leg** | **+2966** | | **Just Darnold under 228.5 + JSN over 81.5** | **+382** | **Scott:** "That two-leg is threading the needle — **but I think it's doable.**" **Bearman: "Not bad."** *(He caps himself at four legs: "I'd have to chop one and hope I don't pick the wrong one.")* --- ## 🏈 TOUCHDOWN CALL **Bearman: Jadarian Price.** **Scott: George Holani (+185).** **Both agree:** "**There will be a rushing touchdown for the Seattle Seahawks tonight** — whether it's Price or Holani." *(And the honest note on first-TD props: "We already know they're negative EV bets." Have fun, but know what they are.)* --- ## 🔮 The Final Read **Bearman's score: Seattle 20, New England 17.** **Scott's score: Seattle 23, New England 20.** --- ## 🏆 THE CONTEST IS LIVE — PICKS ARE UP **Games are already postable for Week 1.** The **Bearman Super Contest on Splash Sports** — first of its kind, **five picks a week, SIDES AND TOTALS**, with prizes through League Safe. **And the challenge stands:** the highest finisher who subscribes to Bettor Day but not Bearman Bets (or vice versa) **wins a free year of the other.** Bragging rights on the line. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-01-at-11.03.41---PM.png) Link: [http://splashsports.com/bearman](http://splashsports.com/bearman?ref=bettorday.com) --- ## 📅 Coming Up ### TOMORROW - **Mackenzie Rivers** on the pod — **Rams-49ers same game parlay** from Melbourne - **🎬 The Bettor Day Football Show, 2 PM ET** — Scott, Fezzik & AJ Hoffman. 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