NFL 1st Quarter Mark & CFB Top 25 Matchups

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman take a look at Week 4 in the NFL and see if any opinions have solidified as we near the end of the first quarter of the season. Plus a preview of the Top 25 matchups in College Football.

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🏈 THE QUARTER POLE IS APPROACHING: WHO ARE WE, THREE GAMES IN?

Bearman: Mostly, They're Who We Thought

"Outside of maybe the Raiders being 3-0, which nobody saw coming, or the Vikings looking as good as they have — even though you predicted the Vikings before the season started — there hasn't been much of a surprise. My opinion has solidified on a lot of these things."

⚠️ THE PATRIOTS CALL, VINDICATED

Bearman: "We both predicted the Patriots would not be as good as they were last year — simply because they weren't TESTED last year.

I know they went to the Super Bowl. But it's not as simple as the schedule, which is what everybody talks about. I look at who they played on the defensive and offensive side.

Drake Maye had not played a good defense. And when he DID play a good defense, in the playoffs, he looked like crap.

Well, guess what? This year he has played good AND bad defenses — and looked like crap."

🐻 THE BEN JOHNSON REASSESSMENT

Bearman: "One thing has jumped out at me that shouldn't be a surprise: BEN JOHNSON IS A GOOD COACH."

What Monday Night Actually Showed

"They executed an almost flawless offensive plan. Granted, they went for it on fourth down and didn't get it — but if Loveland reaches over the goal line, that game's a blowout.

And we're talking CASE KEENUM versus the Philadelphia Eagles. If you didn't know football, you wouldn't have known that guy hasn't played quarterback since the dinosaurs.

They didn't score 59. But they DROVE EVERY TIME THEY HAD THE BALL, and the Eagles had absolutely no answer."

🔄 THE FULL REVERSAL

"I had picked them NOT to make the playoffs. I thought they'd drop off, maybe win eight games. I had the Lions and Vikings at the top of that division.

They were the definition of a regression candidate — 33 turnovers, the ball always goes the other way. You said it. Barnwell said it.

Well, not what I saw Monday night. Monday night I got three more turnovers AND the offense went up and down the field.

I would no longer be stunned if the Chicago Bears won this division and were a threat in the postseason. And I would NOT have said that three weeks ago."

🎙️ AND THE QUARTERBACK DOESN'T MATTER

Bearman: "Honestly, I don't think it matters who starts. That's the beauty of Ben Johnson.

People were criticizing him earlier in the week, and he joked about it after the game — he's never coached a game where he didn't have a NUMBER ONE PICK at quarterback. Goff, then Williams. He's had a number one pick his entire career.

He just won with Case Keenum.

It's THE SYSTEM."

💰 BEARMAN'S WEEK 4 CARD

⭐ CARDINALS -115 AT THE GIANTS (already bet)

"It's not the most beautiful game of the week. But from what I saw of Jameis Winston and the Giants, I just don't think they're going to be very good.

That Giants-Titans game was a train wreck — 238 total yards, no touchdowns. And forget about JJ McCarthy, he's not going to be ready.

On the other side, Arizona has played some pretty good football. I know they were awful against Seattle, but they played tight with San Francisco and looked good in the week one upset of the Chargers.

They're not going to allow 400 yards to the GIANTS the way they did to Seattle and San Francisco.

The Cardinals are a little underrated, and I have no faith in the Giants."

⭐ PATRIOTS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 20.5 (hoping for a 21)

"I'm going to continue to fade the New England Patriots offense.

Six months ago the Patriots were talking like they'd found the next Tom Brady. If you actually look at what Drake Maye has done against GOOD defenses compared to BAD defenses — they have a quarterback problem.

Now, the Bills are not the '85 Bears, they don't have a great defense. But that New England offense is BROKEN right now."

⭐ THE HUMAN ATM: CHASE BROWN UNDER 66.5 (already bet)

"Fading the running back against the Jacksonville Jaguars has been my HUMAN ATM the last two years."

The Numbers

🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 25

Last week's system went 3-1 — the only loss was Iowa's last-second win over Michigan. A Michigan win and cover would have made it a 4-0 sweep. (Scott: "What incredible karma for Michigan losing that game.")

No system plays this week. But there's plenty on the board.

🎰 #7 ALABAMA (-6, total 60.5) at #16 MISSISSIPPI STATE

Bearman: "We ARE expecting a shootout in Stark-Vegas."

The Mea Culpa

"I like to brag when I win, but I'll also admit when I'm wrong. I had Mississippi State rated as the WORST TEAM IN THE SEC in my preseason power rankings. I was wrong.

They're much better than I anticipated because of Taylor and what they're doing on offense. The guy came out of nowhere — and now all of a sudden he's a HEISMAN CANDIDATE.

Keelon Russell has been amazing this year. I've hit his prop time and time again. I'm tempted to lay the six.

Problem is NEITHER TEAM HAS A DEFENSE, which is why the number is where it is. I'll probably get to the over by Saturday.

I lean Alabama — but DeBoer has lost these road games at ranked teams before. No firm play just yet."

📊 #5 OHIO STATE (-14) at #14 IOWA — THE STAT OF THE WEEK

🚨 THE DATABASE, GOING BACK TO 1995

Two top-15 ranked teams, road team favored by 14 or more: it has only happened NINE TIMES.

(Most recently October 29, 2022 — ironically, Ohio State.)

Bearman: "Ohio State is GOING TO WIN this game. I just don't know if they'll cover the fourteen."

🐊 #8 FLORIDA (-5.5) at #25 MISSOURI

Bearman: "Missouri shouldn't be ranked right now. This team seems to always have a 20-something in front of them."

The Case for the Gators

"I warned you last week when I took Florida -2.5, even though none of us thought they should be favored — INCLUDING THE HEAD COACH.

They're good. And it's not just Florida good. It's BUSTER FAULKNER GOOD.

Look at the film, look at all the professional film guys on Twitter this week talking about how unstoppable Buster Faulkner is. He's taking a scheme and putting some of the best skill players in the country behind it. The quarterback's not making mistakes — and when he does, it's just an incomplete pass that should have been a touchdown.

Missouri's good, they have a good defense. But so does Ole Miss — and Florida scored FIFTY-TWO on them. Auburn's not bad, and Florida scored forty-something."

🗑️ Throwing Out the Narrative

"People will say Florida doesn't historically play well at Missouri. You're right, they don't. I throw that out the window — Buster Faulkner wasn't the OC. John Sumrall wasn't the head coach. Jaden Baugh wasn't in high school yet.

They hadn't won at Auburn since I was in school in 1999. I was AT that game. So let's throw that narrative out the window too."

📈 The Bigger Picture

"I would not have said this four weeks ago — but this team is a contender for the SEC and the national title.

They went from UNRANKED two weeks ago, before they beat Auburn, to showing up in every single media member's college football playoff this week. And they're HOSTING a first round game according to most of the pundits.

The playoff has been around a while, and Florida has never shown up in it, because they haven't been good in a while.

They have a tough schedule — Missouri this week, then back-to-back games versus the top two teams in the country, and NEITHER is in Gainesville. They're not going to go unbeaten. But they don't have to. They've won national titles without being unbeaten before — in fact, all three of them."

⚾ THE POSTSEASON: IF NOT THE DODGERS, WHO?

Bearman: "If it's not the Dodgers, it'll be the Dodgers. If you gave me Dodgers versus the FIELD right now, I'd probably take the Dodgers."

🗺️ THE BRACKET COMPLAINT

"The winner of Yankees-Red Sox has a shot. The problem is, based on the absolute STUPIDITY of Major League Baseball's playoff format, the winner of Yankees-Red Sox has to play the RAYS.

So let's have a little AL EAST ROUND ROBIN over here, while the other three teams that are barely over .500 get to play each other.

Whoever comes out of that trifecta of Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays could potentially knock off the Dodgers. I have no faith that the Guardians, White Sox, or Astros get it done — and I don't think anybody in the NL does either."

💰 THE EXACTA STRATEGY (from Monday's preview pod)

Instead of the Dodgers at +220:

🏒 THE NHL OPENS WITH A BANG

Panthers 1, Hurricanes 0 (OT)

Gustav Forsling scored the game winner with FIVE SECONDS REMAINING in overtime.

Jacob Markstrom gets the shutout in his Panthers debut on just 15 saves. Brandon Bussi made 19 saves on 20 shots on the other side. (Not a lot of shots — and 4:55 of three-on-three.)

🏒 THE NHL HQ IS LIVE

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What's In It

The matchup view: click any game for a full matchup card — goals for and against per game, power play and penalty kill percentage, 5v5 shot attempt share, 5v5 shots on goal share, and shots on goal for and allowed per game.

Shots on goal props: player hit rates compared to what their opponent allows over the course of a season.

⭐ The First Period Database

Everything you need to bet NHL first periods:

• Straight up records
• Over/under records
• Both teams to score records
• Goal in the first 10 records (your GIFT bets)
• Goalie records — track every goalie's first period performance, split by home and away, with first period goals against average and first period save percentage

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