More QB Injury News & The College Football Betting System

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman react to the Giants getting bad news on QB Jaxson Dart's injury, the Bears having to possibly start Case Keenum vs the Eagles and it's a weekend of System plays in College Football.

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🏈 THE DART FALLOUT: BOTH OF US ARE ON THE GIANTS

The latest report: Jaxson Dart will be out an extended period — possibly the entire season.

The line: Giants -2.5 over Tennessee at FanDuel.

Scott's Case

"Seeing Jameis Winston come in when you're playing the Rams and your quarterback gets hurt in the first quarter looks a lot different than having a whole week to prepare knowing Jameis Winston is your starting quarterback.

The market reaction is a little bit too much. Getting the Giants at less than a field goal feels like a play."

Bearman Agrees — And He Was ON the Rams

"The Titans are awful. And you're right about Jameis. I'm not going to pretend he's a good backup quarterback — but a week to prepare is different than Winston being the backup AND the mascot all at once.

I would take the Giants with Jameis Winston over the Titans with Cam Ward. Two and a half is an overreaction, simply put."

⚠️ THE PART EVERYONE IS MISSING

Bearman: "Last time I checked, Jaxson Dart did not play corner. He didn't play safety. He didn't play middle linebacker. And the Rams did whatever they wanted to the Giants DEFENSE.

That's a whole different story you're going to need to address, and it's being lost in the Dart and Nabers injury talk — your defense looked awful Monday night.

But the Tennessee Titans are that medicine"

🚨 CASE KEENUM IS LIKELY STARTING FOR CHICAGO

Caleb Williams was already out (hamstring). Now Tyson Bagent is in the concussion protocol.

Case Keenum has not appeared in a regular season game since 2023.

⚡ SCOTT FIRED IMMEDIATELY

"I texted everyone inside the Bettor Day chat and fired on Eagles -3 as soon as I saw the tweet. They took it off the board, posted it back at 3.5 then 4.5. 

📊 THE SACK RATE CASE

The counterargument people make: the drop-off from Caleb to Bagent isn't much, because Bagent can also escape the pocket.

Scott: "As he's gotten older — less mobile, less ability to escape pressure. And now it's 2026.

The Eagles pass rush will get to Case Keenum and it will be embarrassing. I don't think 1.5 points is enough of an adjustment.

I want to bet SACK PROPS in this game"

⭐ BEARMAN'S PLAY (bet BEFORE the news): EAGLES/BEARS UNDER 44.5

(Given out in the Betting with Bearman newsletter and on SportsLine Monday morning — Fezzik had already taken the under on Bettor Day.)

The Eagles Half of the Argument

"The Eagles have shown me absolutely nothing through two weeks on offense. 318 and 341 yards against the Commanders and the Titans — two BOTTOM FIVE defenses last year that didn't do anything to get better. The Eagles couldn't get over 350 yards.

And inside those numbers are a 79-yard and a 65-yard drive on the last drive of each game — one to protect a lead, one to win it. Take those out, because they were forced to go down the field and score.

In the first three and a half quarters of both games, the Eagles produced 34 points on 17 possessions while LOSING 12.2 expected points on their 106 rushes and dropbacks. The Eagles offense has been brutal."

The Bears Half

"The drop-off from 59 points to 3 points is stark. Brian Flores blitzed the crap out of Caleb Williams all day — under 300 yards, 4.2 yards per play, not the 7.7 from week one.

The Bears in week one were an outlier. I think week two was an outlier too. But even in between — Caleb's status was up in the air, and I'm not scared of Tyson Bagent. Now you bring in Case Keenum."

Where It Stands

The total has dropped to 41.5-42.5 in some markets.

Bearman: "I already grabbed 44.5. You can't anymore — but I would STILL play it at under 41.5."

🐊 THE SYSTEM: FLORIDA -3 OVER OLE MISS

#21 Florida is favored over #4 Ole Miss.

📊 THE SYSTEM, DEFINED

When two ranked teams play and the LOWER-ranked team (the bigger number) is favored over the HIGHER-ranked team (the smaller number) — we back the favorite.

Since the start of 2021

🚨 FOUR QUALIFYING GAMES THIS WEEKEND

📜 BEARMAN'S COMPANION TREND

"Only the FIFTH time since 1978 that a top five team was an underdog to a team not ranked in the top twenty.

The previous four: the favorites are 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. It's undefeated since 1978."

🔍 THE FLORIDA CASE

The Offense

The Buster Faulkner effect: an offense that was 102nd in the country last year is now third in yards.

⭐ The Matchup That Decides It

Jadan Baugh: 2nd in the country in rushing yards, 1st in touchdowns (8), averaging 161-181 yards over his last four games going back to last year's Florida State game. 458 yards in his last three.

Ole Miss run defense: 159 yards allowed per game on 4.1 per carry — down in the hundreds nationally.

"The Ole Miss defense has not been good at stopping the run, and they're going up against a Florida offense that has run all over everybody. And by the way, has passed over everybody."

The Other Side

"It's not like Ole Miss brings a good defense — and they have a good offense too." Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA: 10th in the nation, with a top-10 passing game.

But: "What has shocked most people is Ole Miss hasn't been able to run the ball, because Kewan Lacy has been injured. He's a GAME TIME DECISION with a shoulder injury — if he does NOT play, I think that line moves even higher. The Rebels are 116th in the nation in rushing and 14th out of 16 in the SEC."

The History

• Florida lost to Ole Miss by ten last year with Kiffin there
• Two years ago Florida beat 9th-ranked Ole Miss in Gainesville and ruined Lane's playoff chances — "unfortunately that got Billy Napier a contract extension, so we're not sure that was actually a good thing"
• "I liked what I saw out of Ole Miss last week against LSU. I was on the other side of it. I was wrong."

Bearman's verdict: "Florida is the right side, especially if you can get it at three or less. Three and a half is a little too much."

📉 THE LETDOWN TREND THAT SEALS IT

Since 2021: a top 25 team that won OUTRIGHT AS AN UNDERDOG against another top 25 team, and is now a dog again in another top 25 matchup:

"The letdown is real. And I think it's also baked into the market — that's why Florida is north of a three-point favorite."

🗣️ THE COACH-SPEAK SIDEBAR

Florida's John Sumrall, asked about being favored: "There's a lot of good drugs out there. I don't even know the favored deal, but whoever is doing that — they haven't watched the tape."

Bearman: "That's the Lou Holtz approach — we may be 9-0 and number one, but we're really not that good. I worked with Dr. Holtz for many years. He did that to set expectations with the players. They're college kids.

Does Sumrall think he should be favored? He's telling the media what he wants his TEAM to hear. If he says of course we're favored, have you not seen us? — the 19-year-olds get a big head. So he says it in front of the national media. I just read you five minutes of numbers that tell you they SHOULD be favored."

Our College Football HQ has full matchup details on every game. Advanced stats like EPA/Play, Success Rate & Points per Opportunity, with direct links to the Trench Report for each game. All our data & analysis is included with an Insider Membership. Premium adds the picks: every play from every Bettor Day contributor, in one dashboard. Compare tiers →

📅 Coming Up

• Betting with Bearman Podcast: Raheem Palmer of The Ringer joins this afternoon to break down all of week three - Check out the newsletter at BearmanBets.com
• Thursday: Brandon Kravitz & the BettorDay Football Show LIVE at 2 PM ET