> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/wednesday-september-23rd-2026/ - Published: 2026-09-23T10:00:20.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-23T10:00:19.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## More QB Injury News & The College Football Betting System *Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman react to the Giants getting bad news on QB Jaxson Dart's injury, the Bears having to possibly start Case Keenum vs the Eagles and it's a weekend of System plays in College Football.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) # ๐Ÿˆ THE DART FALLOUT: BOTH OF US ARE ON THE GIANTS **The latest report: Jaxson Dart will be out an extended period โ€” possibly the entire season.** **The line: Giants -2.5 over Tennessee at FanDuel.** --- ## Scott's Case "Seeing Jameis Winston come in **when you're playing the Rams and your quarterback gets hurt in the first quarter** looks a lot different than **having a whole week to prepare knowing Jameis Winston is your starting quarterback.** **The market reaction is a little bit too much. Getting the Giants at less than a field goal feels like a play.**" ## Bearman Agrees โ€” And He Was ON the Rams "**The Titans are awful.** And you're right about Jameis. **I'm not going to pretend he's a good backup quarterback โ€” but a week to prepare is different than Winston being the backup AND the mascot all at once.** **I would take the Giants with Jameis Winston over the Titans with Cam Ward. Two and a half is an overreaction, simply put.**" --- ### โš ๏ธ THE PART EVERYONE IS MISSING **Bearman:** "**Last time I checked, Jaxson Dart did not play corner. He didn't play safety. He didn't play middle linebacker. And the Rams did whatever they wanted to the Giants DEFENSE.** **That's a whole different story you're going to need to address, and it's being lost in the Dart and Nabers injury talk โ€” your defense looked awful Monday night.** **But the Tennessee Titans are that medicine"** --- # ๐Ÿšจ CASE KEENUM IS LIKELY STARTING FOR CHICAGO **Caleb Williams was already out (hamstring). Now Tyson Bagent is in the concussion protocol.** **Case Keenum has not appeared in a regular season game since 2023.** | Stage | Line | | ----------------- | --------------- | | Before the news | Eagles -3 | | **Now (FanDuel)** | **Eagles -4.5** | --- ## โšก SCOTT FIRED IMMEDIATELY "**I texted everyone inside the Bettor Day chat and fired on Eagles -3 as soon as I saw the tweet.** They took it off the board, posted it back at 3.5 then 4.5\. --- ## ๐Ÿ“Š THE SACK RATE CASE **The counterargument people make:** the drop-off from Caleb to Bagent isn't much, **because Bagent can also escape the pocket.** | Quarterback | Sample | Sack Rate | | ------------------------------------ | ---------------------- | ---------- | | **Tyson Bagent** | 164 dropbacks, 6 sacks | **3.66%** | | **Case Keenum (career)** | 66 starts, 2013-2023 | 5.54% | | Keenum, 2019 (Redskins) | 247 attempts | 5.73% | | Keenum, 2021 | 72 attempts | 6.49% | | **Keenum, 2023** *(his last action)* | 53 attempts | **10.17%** | **Scott:** "**As he's gotten older โ€” less mobile, less ability to escape pressure. And now it's 2026.** **The Eagles pass rush will get to Case Keenum and it will be embarrassing. I don't think 1.5 points is enough of an adjustment.** **I want to bet SACK PROPS in this game**" --- ## โญ BEARMAN'S PLAY (bet BEFORE the news): EAGLES/BEARS UNDER 44.5 *(Given out in the Betting with Bearman newsletter and on SportsLine Monday morning โ€” *Fezzik had already taken the under on Bettor Day.*)* ### The Eagles Half of the Argument "**The Eagles have shown me absolutely nothing through two weeks on offense. 318 and 341 yards against the Commanders and the Titans โ€” two BOTTOM FIVE defenses last year that didn't do anything to get better. The Eagles couldn't get over 350 yards.** **And inside those numbers are a 79-yard and a 65-yard drive on the last drive of each game โ€” one to protect a lead, one to win it. Take those out, because they were forced to go down the field and score.** **In the first three and a half quarters of both games, the Eagles produced 34 points on 17 possessions while LOSING 12.2 expected points on their 106 rushes and dropbacks. The Eagles offense has been brutal.**" ### The Bears Half "**The drop-off from 59 points to 3 points is stark.** Brian Flores blitzed the crap out of Caleb Williams all day โ€” **under 300 yards, 4.2 yards per play, not the 7.7 from week one.** **The Bears in week one were an outlier. I think week two was an outlier too. But even in between โ€” Caleb's status was up in the air, and I'm not scared of Tyson Bagent. Now you bring in Case Keenum.**" ### Where It Stands **The total has dropped to 41.5-42.5 in some markets.** **Bearman: "I already grabbed 44.5\. You can't anymore โ€” but I would STILL play it at under 41.5."** --- # ๐ŸŠ THE SYSTEM: FLORIDA -3 OVER OLE MISS **#21 Florida is favored over #4 Ole Miss.** ## ๐Ÿ“Š THE SYSTEM, DEFINED **When two ranked teams play and the LOWER-ranked team (the bigger number) is favored over the HIGHER-ranked team (the smaller number) โ€” we back the favorite.** ### Since the start of 2021 | Metric | Record | | --------------- | --------------------------------- | | **ATS** | **52-29-1 โ€” 64.2%** | | **Straight up** | **59-23 โ€” 72%** | | Average margin | **Winning by 7.3, covering by 3** | ### ๐Ÿšจ FOUR QUALIFYING GAMES THIS WEEKEND | Favorite | Underdog | | ------------------------- | ------------ | | **#21 Florida** | #4 Ole Miss | | **#18 Michigan** | #17 Iowa | | **#20 Oregon** | #12 USC | | **#24 Mississippi State** | #19 Missouri | --- ## ๐Ÿ“œ BEARMAN'S COMPANION TREND "**Only the FIFTH time since 1978 that a top five team was an underdog to a team not ranked in the top twenty.** **The previous four: the favorites are 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. It's undefeated since 1978.**" --- ## ๐Ÿ” THE FLORIDA CASE ### The Offense | Metric | Florida | | ---------------------- | ------------------------------- | | Offensive EPA per play | **99th percentile** | | Points per drive | **99th percentile** | | Offensive success rate | 95th percentile | | Explosiveness | 91st percentile | | National ranks | **3rd in points, 4th in yards** | **The Buster Faulkner effect: an offense that was 102nd in the country last year is now third in yards.** ### โญ The Matchup That Decides It **Jadan Baugh:** 2nd in the country in rushing yards, **1st in touchdowns (8)**, averaging 161-181 yards over his last four games going back to last year's Florida State game. **458 yards in his last three.** **Ole Miss run defense: 159 yards allowed per game on 4.1 per carry โ€” down in the hundreds nationally.** **"The Ole Miss defense has not been good at stopping the run, and they're going up against a Florida offense that has run all over everybody. And by the way, has passed over everybody."** ### The Other Side **"It's not like Ole Miss brings a good defense โ€” and they have a good offense too."** Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA: **10th in the nation**, with a top-10 passing game. **But: "What has shocked most people is Ole Miss hasn't been able to run the ball, because Kewan Lacy has been injured. He's a GAME TIME DECISION with a shoulder injury โ€” if he does NOT play, I think that line moves even higher. The Rebels are 116th in the nation in rushing and 14th out of 16 in the SEC."** ### The History - Florida lost to Ole Miss by ten last year with Kiffin there - **Two years ago Florida beat 9th-ranked Ole Miss in Gainesville and ruined Lane's playoff chances** โ€” *"unfortunately that got Billy Napier a contract extension, so we're not sure that was actually a good thing"* - **"I liked what I saw out of Ole Miss last week against LSU. I was on the other side of it. I was wrong."** **Bearman's verdict: "Florida is the right side, especially if you can get it at three or less. Three and a half is a little too much."** --- ## ๐Ÿ“‰ THE LETDOWN TREND THAT SEALS IT **Since 2021: a top 25 team that won OUTRIGHT AS AN UNDERDOG against another top 25 team, and is now a dog again in another top 25 matchup:** | Situation | Record | | ------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------- | | All | **4-21 SU ยท 6-19 ATS** โ€” failing to cover by **11.3 per game** | | **As an AWAY dog** *(Ole Miss)* | **1-8 SU ยท 2-7 ATS** โ€” failing to cover by **12.1 per game** | **"The letdown is real. And I think it's also baked into the market โ€” that's why Florida is north of a three-point favorite."** --- ## ๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ THE COACH-SPEAK SIDEBAR **Florida's John Sumrall, asked about being favored: "There's a lot of good drugs out there. I don't even know the favored deal, but whoever is doing that โ€” they haven't watched the tape."** **Bearman:** "**That's the Lou Holtz approach โ€” *we may be 9-0 and number one, but we're really not that good.*** I worked with Dr. Holtz for many years. **He did that to set expectations with the players. They're college kids.** **Does Sumrall think he should be favored? He's telling the media what he wants his TEAM to hear.** If he says *of course we're favored, have you not seen us?* โ€” **the 19-year-olds get a big head.** So he says it in front of the national media. **I just read you five minutes of numbers that tell you they SHOULD be favored.**" --- Our College Football HQ has full matchup details on every game. Advanced stats like EPA/Play, Success Rate & Points per Opportunity, with direct links to the **Trench Report** for each game. All our data & analysis is included with an Insider Membership. Premium adds the picks: every play from every Bettor Day contributor, in one dashboard. [**Compare tiers โ†’**](https://bettorday.com/membership/?ref=bettorday.com) --- ## ๐Ÿ“… Coming Up - **Betting with Bearman Podcast:** **Raheem Palmer of The Ringer** joins this afternoon to break down all of week three - Check out the newsletter at **BearmanBets.com** - **Thursday:** Brandon Kravitz & the BettorDay Football Show LIVE at 2 PM ET [ Bettor Day Exclusive Sportsbook Promos Promo Codes, Unlocked For You We've partnered with top sportsbooks to bring exclusive sign-up offers to the Bettor Day community. Offers vary by location โ€” **see what's live in your state.** Check Offers In Your State โ†’ 21+ โ€ข For entertainment purposes only โ€ข Please bet responsibly ](https://www.vaultsportshq.com/preferred-books/bettorday?ref=bettorday.com)