> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Wednesday, September 16th, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/wednesday-september-16th-2026/ - Published: 2026-09-16T10:00:30.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-16T10:00:34.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## Fading Recency Bias *Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman talk about the biggest recency biased spots in NFL Week 2 and talk about Friday's College Football action.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) # 🏆 A MONSTER WEEKEND: BEARMAN GOES 17-2 **And 9-1 on his Bettor Day plays.** **His official Bettor Day record since joining: 11-5 overall, 7-1 in the NFL.** --- # 🎯 THE THEME: FADE THE WEEK 1 RECENCY BIAS **Scott:** "**This is where I've found my best betting success** — fading the recency bias people carry from one week to the next. **The NFL truly is a week-to-week sport.**" **Bearman:** "**Week two has historically been my favorite week to bet, because of the week one overreactions.**" --- ## ⭐ PLAY 1: THE COLTS (+6.5, chasing +7) ### Bearman Was NOT Impressed by Kansas City "The narrative is going to be **new-look offense, Kenneth Walker, 200 yards rushing. The passing game was AWFUL across the board.** There was a point where **Mahomes was 2 of 12 passing in the first half**, and **zero completions past the ten-yard mark.** **31-10 looks bad — but it was 14-7 at halftime.** For a while the only offense the Chiefs had was **Walker off the left side or Mahomes scrambling around. That's not sustainable.**" ### Where the Touchdowns Actually Came From | TD | How | | -- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | 1 | **Off an interception** to open the game | | 2 | Rice score — "**it looked like my seventh grade son's team out there trying to tackle Rice**" | | 3 | **Travis Kelce somehow had a 60-yard catch** — more bad tackling | | 4 | Walker's 60-yard run | **"Three of your four touchdowns happened in one game off that. So what did the Chiefs actually SHOW?"** ### The Turn **Bearman:** "I came INTO the season somewhat high on the Chiefs — **they've never had a guy like Ken Walker back there, and it's been a long time since they had someone rush for 175.** But **I came OUT of that game LESS confident,**because the passing game was so brutal. **The Broncos have a good defense when they tackle** — that pass rush got to Mahomes and forced him to scramble. **I think you're going to see a lot of teams start stacking the box against Walker and saying: we're not letting you beat us. Let's see if your receivers can get open. Let's see if 97-year-old Travis Kelce can get open.** **Six and a half is a big number for a Colts team that can score.** They didn't play well against Baltimore — **but they still scored 23\. Their problem was they couldn't stop what seems to be the greatest offense in the world. I'm playing the Colts, hopefully at seven.**" --- ## ⭐ PLAY 2: THE BRONCOS -2.5 vs JACKSONVILLE **Scott:** "**This line is suppressed because of how bad Denver looked.** I don't know if Sean Payton retakes play calling this week or next — **but the public wants nothing to do with the Broncos and everything to do with Trevor Lawrence. The Broncos are the sharp play.**" **Bearman:** "**I'm not sure the Broncos can play any worse than they did — and it was still 14-7 into the third quarter.** That said, **people are sleeping on the Jaguars. I think Trevor Lawrence is finally showing the Trevor Lawrence we expected when he was the number one pick.** It took a while. From the highlights I saw, he had an exceptional game. **But they were playing the Browns.** Two and a half is **probably lower than it should be based on the overreaction.**" --- ## ⭐ PLAY 3: THE RAMS — BET THE SEVEN NOW **Bearman:** "I'm looking at what the public will deem **an overrated Rams team based on a ONE GAME sample size, over in Australia, where they screw up the whole time thing, against a tough 49ers team** — now hosting after a long layoff. Against **a Giants team that, after one night against an awful Dallas defense, everybody thinks John Harbaugh and the New York Giants have won the Super Bowl.**" ### 📊 The Dallas Context That Explains the Overreaction **Per EPA per drive: the Cowboys had the WORST defensive performance by any team in Week 1\. It was worse than all but ONE of their defensive performances last season — and last year they had one of the worst defenses in football.** **Bearman:** "**Slow down a little bit with the New York football Giants.** Do I think they're better than teams gave them credit for? Sure — Harbaugh instills a new philosophy, they ran the hell out of the ball. **But that was one of the worst defensive performances we've seen in a long time from Dallas.** **If you'd told me seven days ago I could get the Rams at HOME laying six and a half against the Giants, I'd have said thank you very much — where's the red ribbon?** I'm not saying the line is off. **I'm saying if week one games weren't played, that's not a six and a half point spread.** **The Rams come home with ten days off, realize what they screwed up in San Francisco, Giants in a late game on Sunday — that could easily be a 24-10 type game.**" ### ⚠️ THE LINE IS ALREADY MOVING **Scott, checking live: "We are at SEVENS now pretty much across the board."** **"Jump on the sevens before they're gone and the seven and a halves show up."** --- ## ❌ BUCS -8.5 vs BROWNS. Can you hold your nose and take Cleveland? **Scott:** "**That's the SAME line the Jaguars were over the Browns — and the Jaguars are better than the Bucs.**" **Bearman:** "**You can't lay the eight and a half — but nobody will be surprised if they cover.** The Browns are that bad. **But the Bucs turn the ball over way too many times to be an eight and a half point favorite.** **If you told me the final was 31-10 Bucs, I'd say yeah, that makes sense. I'd lay it before I took it. But I can't consciously give out -8.5** with the way that defense played and the way they turn it over. **What I AM going to do is play them in the Survivor pool.** For everyone with Survivor entries left — **you either take Tampa or you take San Francisco, because the Browns and the Dolphins are as bad as advertised.**" # 🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 3 --- ## 🎯 MIAMI AT WAKE FOREST (Friday night, Winston-Salem) ### The Familiarity Angle **The history:** Darian Mensah threw for **268 yards and two touchdowns against Wake Forest last season** — while at Duke. **Bearman:** "**You want to be careful fading a team like Miami** — that explosive offense, as talented as anybody in the country. **That said, they have a head coach known to lose games like this. Mario Cristobal has lost games EXACTLY like this** — you're on the road as a big favorite, everybody thinks you're the best thing since sliced bread, and you play right into their hands. **I'm not calling for the upset.** But with Wake having been familiar with Mensah, **it's a rare team that has seen him — with a coach coming back who has seen him — at home, at night, on a Friday, on ESPN.**" ### ⚠️ The Stanford Warning **"I would NOT have taken Wake Forest before I would have taken Stanford. A lot of people liked Stanford — Miami went cross-country and beat the hell out of them. That was also the first game of the season, and Stanford had ALL SEASON to prepare for it. What have they done since? They played an FCS team and beat them 77-7.** **Miami should win comfortably. But I don't mind the play, especially if you can get a 21 or pay for a 21 — because this could be a game Wake Forest hangs around in late on a Friday night and loses by thirteen or fourteen.**" --- ## ⭐ BEARMAN'S PLAY: HOUSTON +7.5 AT TEXAS TECH ### The Long-Standing Position "**I've been on Houston since the summer** — I took them as a long shot to make the playoff and win the Big 12\. **They return really good players, including three-fifths of their offensive line.**" ### The Common Opponent | Team | vs Oregon State | | ----------- | ------------------------------------------- | | **Houston** | **Won 33-20** *(as an 18.5-point favorite)* | | Texas Tech | **Barely got by** | **On the Houston non-cover:** "**They threw a pick in the end zone. They jumped offside on a punt on fourth and three, which let Oregon State go score.** In a 13-point win when you're laying 18.5, **you cover that if you don't do those two things.** **And people forget that game was DELAYED at halftime due to weather.** It's a little different coming out of a one-hour halftime versus a twenty-minute one." ### The Verdict **"Connor Weigman is really, really good. He looked awesome last week** — they absolutely rolled, 77-6. **Texas Tech has not looked impressive in either game and has not covered in either game.** Looking at the common opponent, **Houston played much better against Oregon State than Texas Tech did.** **Seven and a half is a big number for a really good Houston offense. I think they keep it close — I think they can pull the upset. Houston plus the points.**" --- ## 🦆 THE OREGON QUESTION **Bearman:** "**What they showed through the first two weeks was absolutely atrocious.** With a twelve-team playoff nobody is out of it — **which is why I rooted against the twelve-team playoff. I want these games to MATTER.** This week they're playing **Portland State of the Blind**. Whatever they have to figure out at home this week, **they'd better figure out — because the season goes south if you lose in LA to USC next week on NBC. And you still have Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule.** **I think they figure it out and go into Southern California and put up a fight. But that's not a game people circled a few weeks ago.**" **Scott's counterweight:** "**We've seen teams slip up early and then ten straight wins later they're in the conference championship game. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois. Bad starts happen.**" --- ## 📅 Coming Up - **Today:** The NFL Trench Report updates for Week 2 - **Betting with Bearman:** **Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports** joins for the full week two slate — Sunday night, Monday night, and everything between. The Wednesday newsletter has a **futures portfolio update** and line moves, and the **full NFL and college football card drops Friday** at BearmanBets.com [ Bettor Day Exclusive Sportsbook Promos Promo Codes, Unlocked For You We've partnered with top sportsbooks to bring exclusive sign-up offers to the Bettor Day community. Offers vary by location — **see what's live in your state.** Check Offers In Your State → 21+ • For entertainment purposes only • Please bet responsibly ](https://www.vaultsportshq.com/preferred-books/bettorday?ref=bettorday.com)