NFL Fire-Sale & Midweek Football Bets

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman react to the Colts trades from yesterday and take a look at the schedule this weekend in the NFL and College Football to breakdown early bets.

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⚾ RAYS 4, BREWERS 3 (12) — NO SWEEP

Tampa Bay stays alive. The Brewers lead the World Series 3-1, and Game 5 is Wednesday night in Tampa.

Milwaukee was three outs from a championship for most of the night and never got them. The Brewers took a 3-2 lead in the top of the 12th on a solo home run — and then the bottom of the 12th happened. Shane Drohan came in and recorded zero outs. Four batters, four hits, game over. Ben Williamson drove in the winning run and the Rays walked off their season extension.

That last row is the entire game. Tampa was 3-for-7 with runners in scoring position. Milwaukee was 0-for-3. Two teams hit under .215 and the one that cashed its chances won.

🔴 The Game 5 angle

Both bullpens are wrecked. Tampa used seven pitchers and 205 pitches to get through 12 innings. Milwaukee used eight. Between them, 26 defensive outs' worth of relief work is gone before anyone throws a pitch Wednesday.

That's the kind of thing that shows up in a first-five-innings market before it shows up in a full-game number. If Game 5 goes to either bullpen early, look at the over — and check who's actually available before you touch a team total.

🔥 THE COLTS FIRE SALE

Two moves and a message to the locker room.

The Jets are the biggest winner and they're not even playing

Scott: "If the Colts continue to trade off pieces and they go in the tank this year, it's the best thing for the New York Jets — because by virtue of that Sauce Gardner trade, the Jets have the Colts' first-round pick in the next NFL draft. If I'm the Jets, I'm saying trade away everybody, Indy. I hope you stink."

Bearman: "That trade will go down years from now as one of the worst we've ever seen, even though it doesn't really move the radar because it's a cornerback. But to think they gave up first-round picks — and Gardner was a part of what, three or four total wins with the Colts? He missed the wins last year and then got all the losses."

⭐ "And you'd have to think they're not done trading yet. They have one of the best running backs in football on their team. You wonder what's next for him."

Why Seattle gets better

So the Nelson trade is the correct fix for their run game issues: "I like the move for Quenton Nelson to shore up their offensive line, which has been part of the issues. And obviously you have one of the best wide receivers in the game. You just wonder — is Sam Darnold going to continue to do good Sam Darnold things, or a bad Sam Darnold thing? We've seen each over the last couple of weeks."

The 49ers get Buckner back at exactly the right time

Bearman: "I was ready to give Coach of the Year and MVP away last week if the Niners pulled off the game in Atlanta. You go cross-country after a late game the week before, you play an early body-clock game, you've got no wide receivers to speak of — you go out there and win that game and you might as well just stamp Coach of the Year for Shanahan and MVP for Purdy. But that's why they play the game."

They lost. And now the NFC is crowded:

• Seattle went out and "pretty much dominated Kansas City to say they're not going anywhere"
• The Rams are not getting written off: "They got through the tough part of their schedule — Australia to face the Niners, a whole bunch of primetime games against good teams. They caught a couple of bad breaks. I think they'll be fine."
• The Niners are 6-1 anyway, and now get Buckner back into a front that's been losing bodies weekly. "I was surprised they traded him to begin with."

🐆 JAGUARS −8.5: THE TREND, THE MOVE, AND THE REGRET

The line moved a full point on the trade news.

⭐ THE PLAY: Jaguars −8.5 → −2.5 (Wong teaser leg)

Scott's teaser: Jacksonville teased from −8.5 down to −2.5, paired with the Broncos.

Bearman, on getting caught by the news: "I'm actually mad at myself, Scott. Monday I always do an early look in the newsletter on games I want to jump on now before the line moves. And I mentioned Colts–Jaguars as a game I was watching, because I liked Jacksonville at seven and a half. I didn't like the hook. I wrote in there, 'I like this game, I might get myself there, the hook bothers me, maybe I'll find a seven.' Not knowing they're going to make a couple of trades, and all of a sudden it's eight, eight and a half. I'm mad at myself that I didn't just take the seven and a half or buy it down to seven on Monday."

"But yes, it is a good teaser leg. Jacksonville, I have no problem winning that game. I still might lay the eight and a half at this point, because Indianapolis — not much left, and they're not good to begin with."

The lesson, and it's a recurring one: the reason to take a number you like on Monday is that you don't know what Tuesday's news is. Bearman identified the right side and the right price and talked himself out of it over half a point — and the half point he was quibbling with is now two full points worse.

One more wrinkle: Jacksonville's stadium is at roughly half capacity during construction, and next year the Jaguars play their home games in Orlando. Which makes this one of the last chances to use what has been one of the most reliable home-field edges in the league.

🏔️ CHIEFS AT BRONCOS: BEARMAN IS LAYING IT

Scott flagged the Chiefs as exposed on Sunday night. Bearman agreed — and is taking them anyway.

"I'm not buying the Broncos"

Bearman: "I said it last week: I'm not buying the Broncos, and nothing they did last week against the Cardinals changed my mind — even though I had the Cardinals in that game and I was wrong."

The Cardinals game, read properly:

Bearman: "I'm not going to sit here and BS you and tell you the Cardinals outplayed Denver, but that game was closer than the final score might allude to."

The rest of the résumé:

• Needed a late call against the Rams to win
• Needed a Jacksonville second-half collapse to win
• And beat Seattle in primetime in "arguably one of the worst games in a victory we've ever seen" — exactly two first downs in the entire second half and overtime, just waiting for Sam Darnold to be Sam Darnold

The honest disclosure: "And Scott, I tell you that as a guy who took their team total over. I expected the Broncos to be good and they've done nothing but disappoint me this year — and they're 5-2. You'd think I'd be happy."

Yes, the Chiefs were bad. And they were still in it.

Bearman: "It's obvious — if you stop Ken Walker, you stop the Chiefs. Which is something you never thought you'd have to say, that the Chiefs have to rely on Mahomes in their passing game, which doesn't exist right now. The receivers are terrible. Kelce looks like he's 110."

"And there's the but. They were still in that game in the fourth quarter despite playing awful. They didn't get in the red zone. They only scored three points. They were terrible — but they were right there, because their defense was good. And if their defense plays a little better in the second half, they win that game."

The matchup argument

Denver ranks 28th against the run. Kansas City has Kenneth Walker, who did nothing against Seattle — "but that's the only team he hasn't done anything against."

And the Week 1 meeting, seven weeks ago:

Bearman: "I don't need a calendar or a telescope to see the last time these two teams played. This team had 176 yards when they met."

⭐ THE PLAY: Chiefs moneyline

The spot: Mahomes is 14-2 in his career against Denver. And the Reid–Mahomes Chiefs don't lose back-to-back games — "they've done it four times in the Reid–Mahomes era if you take out last year's disaster."

Bearman: "I think the Broncos are fraudulent right now. And maybe they beat Kansas City and all of a sudden they're 6-2 and they took over the division and I'm wrong. But this is a bounce-back spot. I'm just asking them to win — and you might get your teaser leg as well."

Note the structure: Bearman on the moneyline, Scott on the Broncos +1.5 → +7.5 teaser leg. Those are not opposing bets. "This is not going to be a blowout. I don't mind your teaser play."

Scott's stylistic note on the game: two of the lowest aDOTs in the entire NFL facing each other. "Lots of screen passes and short passes coming our way."

🐦‍⬛ BILLS–RAVENS: THE LAMAR LINE, AND THE BROKEN SECOND HALF

Scott's market read

Scott: "The spread right now is kind of baking in a 75 to 80 percent chance that Lamar returns." His question to Bearman: is it worth taking +3.5 now, in anticipation?

Bearman: "If you like the Ravens, then yes. I think Lamar Jackson is going to play, and I think the line knows it may sneak under that magic key number of three if he does suit up."

That's the whole case for buying now: not a view on the game, a view on the number. Three is a wall. If you want this side and you believe he plays, +3.5 is the last time you see a plus-three-and-a-half.

But Bearman's real problem with Baltimore

⭐ "The Ravens seem to be allergic to the second half this season. I saw a stat yesterday that the Ravens' point differential between the first half and second half is the largest in the history of football at this point in time."

"If they can close out games, they'll be right in it."

Why he'd be looking at the over

• The Bills are off a bye with a really good offense
• The Ravens' pass defense has been awful — they just allowed Joe Burrow 249 yards and four touchdowns in one half
• "I expect Josh Allen and the Bills to do some damage"

The series history he pulled before air:

Bearman: "They played a 41-40 NFL Game of the Year. Do I expect it to be 41-40? Probably not. I'm an unders guy — but I would not take the under in this game. In fact I'd actually start peeking at the over, especially if you think Lamar's going to play."

🏈 COLLEGE SATURDAY

#3 Georgia −11.5 vs. #17 Florida — PASS, lean Florida

The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is indoors this year, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, because of the same Jacksonville construction that's pushing the Jaguars to Orlando next year.

Scott: "They really didn't do Florida any favors. I say 'neutral site' in air quotes. It's a home game for Georgia. This is their second home. And it's funny — the Jags can play home games in that stadium, but there are more fans who want to go to this game than to Jags home games."

Bearman on the scheduling miss: "Next year it'll be in Orlando. They're doing one in Atlanta, one in Orlando — and I think they absolutely missed a big opportunity to play it on campuses. They did that back in the early nineties when they redid the stadium from the Gator Bowl. Who wouldn't want to, as a student, go to Athens or go to Gainesville?You may never have done that, considering your teams don't play there."

The handicap: "Georgia got off to a great start but hasn't looked great lately. Florida's been hit or miss. I lean toward taking the eleven and a half with Florida, but I could see Georgia pounding them if the real Georgia Bulldogs come out. It's a four-sided game. Georgia has the talent to blow anybody in the country out — I still think they're the best team in the country. But I also saw them lose to an Auburn team that Florida beat. Florida has looked like the best team in the country, and they've also looked terrible. Currently a pass, but I'd lean toward the points if anything."

#13 Texas Tech −3.5 vs. #22 Arizona — leaning Arizona

Bearman: "I'm not back in the Red Raiders, because I don't think they're as good as people thought they were. I'm not at all surprised they didn't maintain the undefeated season. I am surprised who they lost to — I thought it would be Houston, not Cincinnati."

On Arizona: "This Arizona team is really, really good. They lost to BYU, who was number two in the country. They pounded Iowa State. I think they're a very underrated team and they can keep it close in Lubbock. The Arizona quarterback is really good and they're 22nd in the country for a reason. I had them against BYU — they were covering for 90% of the game and then allowed a late touchdown."

"I think Texas Tech has been overrated since the minute their quarterback was told he could not play there any longer. Probably going to wait until Friday to pick this one, but I'm absolutely leaning Arizona off the bat."

🔭 THE UTAH SCHOOLS: TWO LOOK-AHEAD SPOTS IN ONE WEEK

The Holy War is next week, and both participants have a trap in front of them. This is the best structural angle of the episode.

BYU −16.5/−17 vs. Arizona State — take the points

Scott: "I'm worried about BYU. They're coming off back-to-back grueling, intense, physical and emotional games — Notre Dame, which came down to the last second, and of course the loss we were all on against Central Florida last week. Now you've got to travel cross-country back home to lay more than two touchdowns, in the week before the Holy War. I'm sorry, it's a bad spot. They're going to win this game, but it's not going to be by that margin."

Bearman: "No, it's a bad spot. I'm hoping I can get a 17 out there, because that would be a number I would love to have. Arizona State is not a bad team either — they've lost to A&M and Texas Tech, two ranked teams. BYU should be worried here, because they shouldn't have beaten Notre Dame and they got outplayed by UCF — a game we were both on. BYU will win this one eventually, but the number's a little too big."

Utah at Cincinnati −6.5 — lean Cincinnati, want the 7

Bearman: "Utah didn't look great last week in that win. They beat Houston — all wins count, especially when you beat a ranked team, it was a big win for them. Now they're on the road crossing a couple of time zones, and you've got the Holy War next week. The books aren't dumb. They're hanging six and a half. If you can get to a seven, I do like Cincinnati in this spot to keep it close."

"Utah is really not as good as their record shows. I don't think they're the best team in the Big 12 — I think they just beat the best team in the Big 12, so give them credit, they're there. Utah will likely play in the Big 12 title game and get a playoff spot if they win it. But don't sleep on Cincinnati. You saw what they did last week. They can pull it off again."

Scott's counter on this one: Cincinnati is in the letdown spot after the Texas Tech upset, so he's not as worried about Utah.

🏖️ MIAMI AT NORTH CAROLINA −14.5 — "THAT'S A BIG NUMBER THAT'S BARKING AT ME"

The one Bearman keeps circling back to, and the reasoning is pure spot analysis.

The setup: Miami goes to Chapel Hill to face Belichick's North Carolina, the week before a 1-versus-4 game at Notre Dame.

Bearman: "Do I think North Carolina's going to win? No. I don't think they're as talented as Miami. But if Miami's ever going to pull a Cristobal — that's what we call it — I would see no bigger spot than to lose the week before going to South Bend for what will be an epic 1-versus-4 game."

⭐ "If you told me Belichick pulled one over on Miami and Miami lost the one before the one, that wouldn't stun me either. I do lean the fourteen and a half. It's hard to fade Miami, but North Carolina has played well in good spots this year — and Cristobal is not a coach who coaches in a way that avoids look-ahead spots."

Also on his watchlist: UCLA −22.5 vs. Nevada. "They're still undefeated, playing a really terrible Nevada team, but UCLA hasn't gone out and pounded anybody. They're winning, but not necessarily impressively. That's a big number. But I don't really like Nevada."

His official card comes out in the Betting with Bearman newsletter Friday.

🍂 FALL SPECIAL: $25 OFF YOUR FIRST MONTH OF PREMIUM

Two Saturdays ago: 18-5 in college football across all contributors. This Saturday: 17-5.

Plus NBA HQ is live at BettorDay.com — full matchup analysis, prop hit rates and projections, and the first quarter database.