NBA Season Tip Off, College Football REAL Rankings & World Series Lookahead

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman take a look at the College Football AP Poll and compare it to the futures market. Plus the NBA season is underway and the World Series starts on Friday.

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🏀 NBA SEASON TIPS OFF

OPENING NIGHT RECAP

Pistons 121, Celtics 113

Boston led by 22 and lost by 8. The Celtics were up 58-45 at the break and then got outscored 37-30 and 39-25 after it, including a 23-point unanswered run by Detroit. Jayson Tatum went 6-of-23 for 13 points — he did add 11 assists

76ers 106, Knicks 100

⭐ Scott’s +5.5 lean cashed outright. But his Over bet lost. The banner went up and the Sixers took the game, winning the third quarter 29-18 and never giving it back. Tyrese Maxey was the best player on the floor — 28 points on 9-of-19 with 5 assists, 3 steals and 3 blocks. LeBron had 14 points, 9 boards and 7 assists in his Sixers debut.

Both teams shot under 42% and the total missed by 26.5 

Thunder 116, Spurs 104

⭐ Fiddle said his numbers still angled toward OKC having value. The Thunder won by 12 as underdogs. They built a 26-point lead behind a 31-16 second quarter and a 48-29 bench advantage, with Jared McCain going 6-of-8 from three for 20 off the pine. The headline, though, is Victor Wembanyama’s line: 1-of-13 from the floor. He still finished with 12 points (10-of-12 at the stripe), 13 rebounds and 6 blocks — a double-double on a single made field goal.

🏀 NBA FUTURES

🙅 Not Buying the Sixers at 10-1

Bearman: "I'm not buying in on LeBron and the Sixers. It's a loaded roster. You've got to prove it to me first."

"LeBron's had loaded rosters before. He actually doesn't win titles with loaded rosters. He wins titles when he's the only guy on the team, or when he has two other guys helping him out."

⭐ HE LIKES THE KNICKS AT +950

Bearman: "I actually do think the Knicks have a very good price at nine to one, for a team that has gotten it done and just literally destroyed everybody."

"We got to the point where you were waiting for the hottest team in basketball to eventually not be hot anymore. And the Spurs are the more talented team, they'll come in there and win the finals. It never happened."

The sample-size argument

"We're not talking about a 25-game sample here — actually, if you count all the games, about a quarter of the season, the Knicks were the best team in basketball. So you're getting nine to one on them to do what they did for a quarter of last season. I like that price."

"And they weren't winning games by five points. I don't think it was a fluke. The 25-game sample shows me it's not just the hottest team at the hottest time. They are a good basketball team."

🎯 His Actual Pick: Thunder over Knicks in the Finals

Going into a PrizePicks column tomorrow.

Bearman: "You're going chalk. Well — that's what the NBA is. And you're only getting 270 on the Thunder."

The Chet argument

"Chet Holmgren couldn't possibly play any worse than he did versus Victor Wembanyama last year. And if he somewhat shows up versus Wembanyama, they win that series and potentially the NBA title."

"That was a seven-game series that went right down to the end, and one guy completely dominated. So I think the Thunder can get past the Spurs."

On the East: "A loaded East with LeBron and the Sixers, the Celtics aren't going anywhere, the Pistons were the one seed, the Cavs are always good for at least 50 wins. But the Knicks have done it."

🏠 House Split Alert

Worth flagging: Michael Fiddle made the Celtics at 16-1 his value play on yesterday's pod — a 60-win team in a tougher East, with Paul George as a functional replacement for what Jaylen Brown provides on offense. Bearman says the Celtics aren't going anywhere.

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📊 COLLEGE FOOTBALL: THE POLLS SAY BYU IS SECOND. THE ODDS SAY 35-1.

After a bunch of top-ten teams lost on Saturday. Here's where the AP landed versus where the money landed.

Note the two that don't line up at all: Alabama has fallen to 13th in the AP and sits sixth on the odds board. BYU is second in the AP and tenth on the odds board at 35-1.

🗣️ Bearman's Quote of the Day

"There's no planet in this galaxy where BYU is the second best team in the country. Just not."

On what the poll has become: "The polls mean absolutely nothing. You lose, you move down. You win, you move up. End of story, period. It's almost like — congratulations Miami, congratulations BYU, you were the two teams that didn't lose, so we're going to put you one and two."

His fix: "I wish they would literally put that up — here is the poll based on odds. Because that is more appropriate for what we do."

Scott's framing: the number next to a team's name means nothing — which is exactly where our systems find the edge.But seeing the futures board laid out next to the poll has to open your eyes.

🔑 The Structural Point Everybody Missed About BYU

Bearman: "All credit to BYU. They beat Notre Dame — or did they? There might have been a second left. Who knows? They won their Super Bowl. Congratulations, you moved up to number two in the country."

"It was not a conference game. I think we need to look at that, because it means absolutely nothing when it comes to their chances at playing for the Big 12 Championship."

"And if they don't make the Big 12 title game, that'll mean they probably have one or more losses — and then they're not making the playoff. So the Notre Dame win is good for your resume. If BYU loses the Big 12 title game to Texas Tech or Houston and we're comparing them to somebody, the Notre Dame win helps. But at the end of the day it's irrelevant to whether they make the Big 12 title game, and therefore the playoff."

🚨 BYU IS ON LETDOWN WATCH — BYU −6.5 AT UCF

The line has moved as money came in on the Knights. BYU is a 6.5-point favorite in Orlando at the Bounce House against 3-3 UCF.

Scott's three angles:

1. The letdown spot after pulling an upset is real.
2. Cross-country travel.
3. An early body-clock game for the Cougars.

Bearman: "Yes, they are on letdown watch. But the problem is UCF is still without their starting quarterback, who got injured in the Pitt game back in week three."

The UCF résumé, though: "It's a letdown spot and a tough place to play. UCF kept it close with Houston. UCF beat TCU. UCF kept it close with a very good Pitt team. They didn't play so well versus Oklahoma State last week."

⭐ His lean: UCF, and take the touchdown

Bearman: "If I had to choose the game, I'd probably choose UCF — hoping to get a touchdown and not the six and a half. Ultimately I think BYU pulls it out. But I'm not going to sit here and pretend BYU looked like the best team in the country against Notre Dame. They outlasted them. And I think you and I both know, if that game had an extra five minutes, who was going to win?"

🎰 THE SYSTEM PLAY: #19 TEXAS −3 vs. #7 OLE MISS

A refresher on the system — two ranked teams, and the inferior-ranked team is favored:

The two straight-up losses: Alabama beating Georgia, and Iowa's last-second play against Michigan. And the ATS record took a hit last week when Houston won by three and failed to cover the 4.5 against Oklahoma State

🙅 BEARMAN IS FADING THE SYSTEM — OLE MISS +3

Bearman: "If this was on video and you could see what I'm doing right now — I am splashing the pot whenever the heck I want, because I'm pushing all in here. This game will be on my card."

And he's upfront about his method: "I have not dug deep into the efficiency numbers or the rankings of the offense and the defense. But I'm a Florida guy, and I watched that Texas game. I watched Texas versus Oklahoma, Texas versus Ohio State — I've watched every Texas game this year. And I've watched all the Ole Miss games."

"Ole Miss is the better team, and it's not even close."

On Texas: "I don't like them. I thought they were overrated as number one in the country. Then they lost. I thought they were overrated as number seven in the country — and a Florida team that hadn't done crap in two weeks went in there and beat them."

On the home-field argument: "The game's in Texas, we should think about that. Well — so was the Florida game. And so was the Ohio State game, where they were down for three and a half quarters."

On Ole Miss: "Ole Miss was one of my plays last week, ending Missouri's run. Missouri was great, but this was a step up in competition and Ole Miss absolutely spanked Missouri. I think Ole Miss is one of the few teams that can win the national title — even though they lost to Florida in a tough place to play in Gainesville, when Florida was at its peak."

On the quarterback noise: "When you start hearing rumors that the freshman may get more snaps in Texas over Arch Manning, you wonder what's really going on there."

👁️ And then the thesis statement

"Sure, it's a bounce-back spot for Texas, no doubt. It's a system play for Texas, no doubt. I am using the eye test. There's models, there's systems, there's stats, there's guts — and then there's the freaking eyeballs. My eyeballs tell me Ole Miss is better than Texas, and you're giving me three points to prove it."

🤝 Scott pushes back

Scott: "The system's the system, though. The bettor in me wants to bet on a team when nobody wants to bet on them — and nobody wants to bet Texas right now."

🏆 HEISMAN: THE FAVORITE IS UNBETTABLE

Jeremiah Smith is −110. Trinidad Chambliss is the third favorite at +600.

⭐ Bearman is holding Chambliss at 9-1

He bought before the season. "That disappeared when they lost to Florida. But they didn't lose to Florida because of him — they just ran out of time, because Florida wasn't stopping him in the second half and the Ole Miss defense wasn't there."

Why the ticket is live: Ole Miss has already played most of its hard games. What's left:

Bearman: "They've already gotten rid of Florida, LSU and Missouri. Ole Miss can absolutely win out — and if they do, Trinidad's right there with the best of them."

On the favorite: "Jeremiah Smith did his thing again, which is what he does. But now he's playing without his quarterback. You'd think the backup just throws to Jeremiah all day — which could hurt his numbers."

📉 Scott's Value Argument Nobody Is Making

Compare the two seasons:

Scott: "Why is one player −110 as the favorite and the other +1800?"

Bearman, instantly: "Because one is Jeremiah Smith and the other guy is not Jeremiah Smith."

Scott: "You're right. But there's no reason to even bet Jeremiah Smith right now."

Bearman: "Not at his odds. If you didn't get Jeremiah Smith in the first three weeks of the season — or specifically after they lost to Texas, when his number went longer but it wasn't his fault they lost — that was the time to get in."

⚾ WORLD SERIES: RAYS AT BREWERS, FRIDAY

Game 1 starters: Drew Rasmussen for Tampa Bay, Jacob Misiorowski for Milwaukee.

⭐ SCOTT: THE RAYS

Scott: "I think it's a great story with the Milwaukee Brewers — they've been the best team all season long. But there's something about this Rays team. Maybe I'm biased because I'm an American League East guy, because I'm a Yankee guy. There's something about the swagger this Rays team has. I think they can pull this off."

⭐ BEARMAN: THE BREWERS

Bearman: "You have the two best teams in baseball record-wise, in terms of each league. You had the one seeds in each league, which is what we never get — but we have."

"But I think you're forgetting that the Brewers just swept the Los Angeles Dodgers out of the playoffs. That's got to be worth something."

🔥 The Bullpen

"The Brewers have a disgustingly awesome bullpen. Like, really, really good — and they can mix and match any which way. They completely shut down the Dodgers. And they completely shut down most of Major League Baseball."

Bearman: "If you get your guy six innings into the game, it's over with the Milwaukee Brewers. And you've got starters who can go five and six innings right off the bat, with the likely Cy Young winner going in Game 1."

His two edges, stated plainly: "Small margins matter. And the Brewers have two advantages. One, they're at home for four of the seven games. Two, they have the best bullpen in baseball."

🥇 WORLD SERIES MVP: TWO PITCHERS, SAME BET

⭐ Bearman: Jacob Misiorowski, 10-1

Bearman: "You almost have to go with the ace, because he's going to pitch twice. And if he wins both games he's going to be the MVP — they side with pitchers who go 2-0. Contreras is obviously the favorite for good reason, but nobody's touching this guy. They haven't."

⭐ Scott: Freddy Peralta, 30-1

Scott: "Peralta has been so elite for the Rays. What if he pitches three times in this World Series? Figure he goes Game 2 and Game 5, or 3 and 6 — and then comes out of the bullpen in Game 6 or 7. If there's one guy who can come out of the bullpen for the Rays after making a start two days earlier, wouldn't it be the veteran?"

The supporting case: Peralta is the reigning ALCS MVP, and he's 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA across three postseason appearances.

Bearman: "Not a bad one if you think he's going to go 2-0 and come out of the bullpen. We're basically both betting the same thing — a pitcher to go 2-0. Because without going 2-0, it doesn't matter if you get the save."

And he named it: "You have him pulling a Livan Hernandez — an LCS and World Series MVP. We'll call that the Livan Hernandez."

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