NFL Real or Fake, CFB Top 25 Matchups & are the Dodgers in Trouble?

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman debate who's for real and who's not in the NFL right now. Plus a great slate of Top 25 action in College Football including System Plays. And are the Dodgers in trouble down 2 games to none in the NLCS?

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🦬 ARE THE BUFFALO BILLS ACTUALLY GOOD? A FORENSIC ACCOUNTING

Scott put the question on the table bluntly: at 4-1, with Josh Allen the MVP favorite, should we be crowning this team?

📋 Scott's Audit of the Résumé

Go through it game by game and the record looks very different:

Scott: "If you really break down the Bills season — how for real is this team?"

🛡️ Bearman: Same Team They've Been for Six Years

"Do I think the Bills can win the AFC? Yes. Do I think they should be the favorite and are the best team in the conference? No."

His case is entirely on one side of the ball, and it's a wall of numbers:

Bearman: "They can't get off the field. They're not a very good defense, and they have to win shootouts. Now, that can get you far. It can win you the AFC East, because you've got two bottom-tier teams in there and then New England — good, not great. They might win a home playoff game, because it's not the easiest place to play. But if they're on the road at Arrowhead, or in Jacksonville or Houston, you're going to see the same story you've seen."

"Are you taking them over Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs? No. Are you taking them over Lamar Jackson in the playoffs? Probably not."

🏔️ THURSDAY NIGHT: SEAHAWKS AT BRONCOS — A GENUINE DISAGREEMENT

Line: Seahawks −2.5 on the road (was Broncos +3 in Tuesday's look) | Total: 40.5 (down from 41.5)

Both teams are 3-2. Scott thinks the number is too big. Bearman thinks it isn't. This is the best back-and-forth of the episode.

📉 Scott: Do the Math on What That Line Implies

Scott: "That's a big line. Not only are you saying the Seahawks are essentially four to four and a half points better than the Broncos on a neutral — you're also pricing in the bad spot of being on the road on a short week in one of the toughest home environments in the NFL. So this might be saying the Seahawks are maybe six points better than Denver on a neutral. And I don't think that's the case."

📈 Bearman: "I'm Going to Disagree. I Think It Is the Case."

He granted every word of the spot argument and then dismantled the Broncos.

🥶 The First-Half Number That Decides This Game

Bearman: "They're the worst scoring team in the NFL in first halves this year. They've scored 0, 3, 3, 7, and I think 7 or 10 against the Chargers. They do not score in the first half. The only halftime lead they've had was against the Chargers, who are obviously just as bad as they are. If they do that versus Seattle, Seattle beats them."

🔍 Deconstructing Denver's Three Wins

Bearman: "When you look at their three wins: fourth quarter rally, referee call, and should-have-lost to a bad Chargers team."

• vs. Jacksonville — looked terrible for three quarters before wearing them down in the fourth. "They beat Jacksonville because they were playing at Mile High and they beat them in the fourth quarter" — which, Bearman noted, actually supports Scott's point about the altitude being real.
• vs. the Rams — "I'm not one to play the referee card, but that wasn't a pass interference call, and they should not have won that game."
• at the Chargers — "Lucky enough that nobody on the Chargers coaching staff knows how to coach football whatsoever."

Why He's Fine Laying It on the Road

Bearman: "Seattle went toe-to-toe with San Francisco. Those two teams may be the best two teams in the league.Seattle beat the Patriots, beat the Chargers a lot better than Denver did, and went toe-to-toe with the 49ers. I don't know what happened in the Commanders game — that's one they'll want back. I like Seattle in this one. I'm not buying what the Denver Broncos are selling."

⭐ THE PLAY: UNDER 40.5

Where they agree completely — and Scott brought the historical work.

Bettor Day Premium subscribers got this at 41.5. It's down to 40.5 on FanDuel.

📊 Thursday Night Games in Denver, Since 2009

6-1 to the UNDER

Games in the database: 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2019, 2022, 2025.

• Three straight unders, most recently Raiders-Broncos in 2025
• The lone over: Chargers-Broncos in 2014, a 35-21 final

Scott: "I think this one also is going to be played to the under. Although I'm a little scared, because with the primetime games we've seen a ton of them go over. But everything Bearman said about the Broncos offense is true, and I do think this is going to be one of those physical football games that lends itself to being low-scoring."

Bearman: "Everything about the Denver offense has been terrible. Bo Nix has not been good. They have no semblance of a running game. Receivers are dropping passes left and right. And Seattle also has no running game right now — so can they do a ball-control thing, or are they just going to throw to JSN all day? The short rest and playing at Mile High does bother me, but I think that works itself out to the under as well."

🤔 Which Division Leader Is Most Likely to Fall?

— excluding the obvious answer of the Giants...

Bearman's answer: the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings.

Bearman: "We both went on my podcast when we previewed the NFC North and we both bought into the Vikings. That said — this is as fraudulent a 5-0 team as you're going to get. Their offense is brutal. The defense is fantastic. But I witnessed a 15-10 game when Minnesota played Miami two weeks ago that looked like a 1920s game."

The division around them:

• Green Bay — "may or may not have figured it out last week against Chicago"
• Detroit — "can score on every possession, their defense happens to be horrific"
• Chicago — "getting their quarterback back"

Bearman: "Would it stun me? We both thought Minnesota could win this division. At the end of the day, I don't think they do. Then again, we've seen teams like the Baltimore Ravens use defense to win these games. I'd think one of the other teams in the NFC North wins before the Vikings do."

The rest of the board, quickly

• 🐈 NFC South: "Carolina is the best team in the NFC South and will win that division."
• 🌉 NFC West: "San Francisco is 5-0 and all they've done is beat three of the other four conference championship teams from last year. When you're beating Denver, Seattle, and the Rams — that's a pretty good 5-0."
• 🗽 NFC East: "The schedule's going to get tougher for the Giants. They haven't played anybody of significance in their 3-1-1 start. 3-1-1 — what a colossal disaster that game was. The Eagles have shown me nothing. The Cowboys probably have the most talented roster in the division but can't get out of their own way. And they'll be lucky if Washington survives the season with their coach. So the Giants might win that division by default."

🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL: A LOADED TOP-25 SATURDAY

🌰 #4 Ohio State at #5 Indiana — Buckeyes −3.5, Total 51.5

Big Noon Kickoff

Scott: "It's very enticing to want to take the home team at north of a field goal. I don't know if I can bet against Ohio State right now, especially when I just haven't been impressed with what I've seen from Indiana at all this year."

Bearman: "Last week actually surprised me. I thought at some point Indiana was going to say, all right, we struggled here and there, we played a crappy schedule, we played very well versus Rutgers — and we're just going to show up and beat the crap out of Nebraska. It didn't happen. They were lucky to win that game."

On Ohio State: "They're one of the best teams in the country even with the loss to Texas. That was a game they dominated for three quarters on the road and then lost. Otherwise we'd be talking about number one Ohio State."

On last year's 13-10 Indiana win: "I'm not taking credit away from Indiana or Cignetti. But I'm not sure Indiana was the better team last year when they played Ohio State. They won 13-10 in a game many people thought Ohio State should have won. They went on to win the whole thing, beating a Miami team that beat Ohio State — but different scenario."

⭐ Bearman's Likely Play: UNDER 51.5

Bearman: "Ohio State is better than they were last year. I'm not sure Indiana is. It's very tempting to take the 3.5 at home with the defending national champs, but they've shown me nothing — and I'm not sure Indiana can match up without Mendoza against this Ohio State team. I haven't fully capped it, but if anything I lean the under. These are two very good defenses we've seen play low-scoring games in big spots. This game was 13-10 last year and you're looking at a 51.5. At 3.5, the side is a tricky number."

📊 The Top-10 Road Favorite Angle

Saturday gives us two top-10 matchups where the road team is favored. Scott's database:

Top-10 matchups with a road favorite, since 2021: 5-7 straight up | 4-7-1 against the spread

That applies to both Ohio State at Indiana and:

☘️ #2 Notre Dame at #8 BYU — Irish −10.5, Total 46.5

Scott's central question: "Will BYU be able to run the football on Notre Dame? Because nobody has been able to so far this season."

Bearman: "Nobody has. And Notre Dame is going to show what they have this week — they haven't played anybody. You can't hold that against them, their schedule was set years in advance and they play all these ACC and Big Ten teams that happen to not be very good. BYU's good. BYU is very good."

⭐ His read: Notre Dame to win, buy down to 10, and another under

Bearman: "I like Notre Dame, but Notre Dame likes to play low-scoring games except for last week, and 10.5 is tough. I think this could be another under 46.5 — both have good defenses. We saw BYU last week on Friday night, and Notre Dame has one of the top defenses in the country. They're also capable of throwing up 40-some points. The early read: I'd hope to get a 10, maybe buy it down to 10 — but I think Notre Dame goes in there and wins."

🎰 TWO SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

A refresher: the system is two ranked top-25 teams where the lower-ranked team — the one with the bigger number next to its name — is favored over the higher-ranked team.

The system took its second loss of the year when Alabama lost to Georgia. The other blemish was Iowa's last-second touchdown against Michigan.

This week's two:

✅ Bearman stays with the system: HOUSTON −4.5

Bearman: "I like Houston in that one, so I'll stay with the system. I've been riding Houston all year — I've been right, I've been wrong, but I still think Houston has a legit shot to win the Big 12. They should have knocked off Texas Tech. Oklahoma State's been a great story, going from one of the worst teams in the league to knocking off Oregon, 4-1 and 2-0 in the Big 12. I think Houston wins this one."

❌ Bearman fades the system: MISSISSIPPI STATE +14

Bearman: "I don't get this line. I know I've said I don't like fading Lane Kiffin — I did it last week with Kentucky, and Kentucky won outright. I took the 8.5 with Kentucky, Kentucky outplayed LSU, covered, won outright. And you turn around and LSU is now favored by 14 over Mississippi State? I'm not sure I understand that line."

"Can LSU put up a million points? Of course they can. But I don't know if anyone's been paying attention to Mississippi State. Obviously they got blown out of the building by Alabama — but then they got the bye. And now they go to Baton Rouge. They're a good football team with a very good quarterback. I'm not necessarily calling for Mississippi State to win, but I would go against the system and I would take the 14."

🐔 And the one he takes every week: KENTUCKY +7 at Oklahoma

Bearman: "Kentucky is a seven-point underdog at an Oklahoma team that just isn't good. Congratulations, you won the Red River Rivalry against an overrated Texas team. Back to reality. Kentucky is a very good team I've won multiple bets on. I'll be taking Kentucky +7 and riding them in a moneyline parlay to be determined."

🤠 TEXAS −10.5 vs. FLORIDA: THE DATABASE SAYS UNDER

Scott's angle here is the post-Red River hangover, and the numbers are striking.

Texas, in the game AFTER playing Oklahoma (since 2016)

Oklahoma, in the game after playing Texas (same span)

Scott: "The Texas numbers — those are staggering. And they're laying 10.5 at home against Florida. Are you going to talk me off taking the 10.5 with your Gators?"

🙅 Bearman: Pass. And It's the Right Kind of Pass.

Bearman: "You go to Ole Miss in an obvious letdown spot and you lose — fine, it happens to the best of us. You go home and face a Shane Beamer South Carolina team that has quit, the coach is being fired, the overrated quarterback is halfway out the building — and you get run out of your own building. That's another story."

On Florida's actual problem: "Among many issues, they have absolutely no secondary. Their corners and safeties are very, very similar to my son's seventh grade team."

On Texas: "I don't think Texas is the number one team in the country. I've said it the last two weeks. There's a reason I took Oklahoma and I took the under. I don't think Texas should have beaten Ohio State. Arch Manning has not shown me anything — Heisman candidate, number one overall pick, and the Texas offense has been brutal this season."

The conclusion, which is the most useful thing he said all show:

"I'd love to just support your 10.5. I've also seen Florida play two of their worst games in recent history. I was told by people close to the program they had a horrible week of practice. I'd take the over, except Texas isn't very good either. So that is my long way of saying I have absolutely no idea what to do with this game. And sometimes the best bet you could have is to not bet."

For the first time in four weeks, Florida will not be on his card — on purpose.

⚾ DODGERS DOWN 0-2: THE BEST PRICE YOU'LL SEE ALL YEAR?

NLCS Game 3 tonight from Los Angeles | Blake Snell vs. Robert Gasser | Dodgers −178 | Ohtani in the lineup

Scott led with the old cliché: a series doesn't begin until a team loses a home game. Should the Dodgers be concerned?

🙅 Bearman: "Not Batting an Eye, One Iota"

Bearman: "I believe in that cliché and I'm standing by it. Is the series different than last year, when the Dodgers swept them? Sure — they went into Milwaukee and won those two, as opposed to what they just did. But in reality, what did they lose? They have not lost a home game yet. They've got three in a row at Dodger Stadium."

"Even if they lose one of the three, I think they can still go to Milwaukee and win the last two, because they're the two-time defending champs. And they're doing all this with a generational star having a generational slump. He'll be in the lineup. They're still the best team in baseball."

"Now — the Brewers are good. The Brewers are very good. The Brewers are on the cusp of doing something they've never done: win an NL pennant. They went to the World Series as an AL team. They've got the 2-0 lead. More power to them."

⭐ THE PLAY: DODGERS +350 TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES

Not the series price. The whole thing.

Bearman: "You haven't had +350 on the Dodgers to win the World Series probably since 2024. This is the best price you're going to get on the Dodgers, period. Obviously if you lose Game 3, it's a whole different story — at that point you don't want to bet on anything. But if you're going to bet the Dodgers to win the World Series, you will not find a better price than right now."

Why the World Series over the series price: "I would bet them to win the World Series before I bet them to win this series, because if they win this series, they're winning the World Series in my mind. So I'd get the bigger price. I understand you've got to win eight games instead of four. But people have said this is the World Series — it's not, it's the NLCS."

That's a clean piece of reasoning worth internalizing: when you believe one outcome fully implies the other, always buy the longer price.

💵 THE BANKROLL: HOW TO ACTUALLY USE A PROMO

Scott was in Florida over the weekend and turned sportsbook promos into profit. The method matters more than the result.

⭐ The Rule

Scott: "If your book is offering you risk-free bets — meaning you get your money back if your bet loses — that's the time to put in a long shot. That's the time to build a same game parlay and have it be worth more than just a sprinkle. Use your risk-free bets on things where you can get your maximum payout. And then if you lose it, so what? You get your money back. Then you place your regular standard straight bet."

The logic: a refund converts variance into free upside. A risk-free bet on a −110 side returns you almost nothing when it loses and wins you almost nothing extra — you've wasted the instrument. Put it on the ticket you'd never normally play.

It worked. Scott hit a touchdown parlay and wanted to thank the participants:

Pat Freiermuth · Isaiah Likely · Tyler Warren · Brock Bowers · Trey McBride

Scott: "It was National Tight Ends Day early for me. Thank you all for your participation — and for helping fund the trip."

📍 Find your promos: the sportsbook promo tab at BettorDay.com pulls up a link where you choose your state and the books available to you.

🏒 NHL Frozen Frenzy: 3-2 on Props, Profitable Night

The record: 3-2 on shots-on-goal player props. But two of the players scored goals — and that's the whole point of the structure.

⭐ The Sprinkle Rule

Scott: "When we give out these player props for shots on goal, always sprinkle on the anytime goal scorer, because it's the same handicap. If we think the player is going to exceed their projected volume of shots on target, one of them might go in. I always recommend 75 to 80% of your bet on the standard shots-on-goal prop, and 20 to 25% on the anytime goal scorer."

It converted a 3-2 night into a winning one. Shout-outs to William Karlsson of the Golden Knights and Vincent Trocheck of the Utah Mammoth for finding the net.

📅 Coming Up

• 🎙️ Later today: Betting with Bearman tapes with Nick Kostos of The Athletic — they co-write a Friday column together — breaking down the NFC East. Bearman's newsletter follows this afternoon with the future of the week, line movement, and Thursday night picks. 
• 📋 Friday: Full NFL and college football cards at BearmanBets.com
• 📺 Saturday mornings: Bearman on SportsGrid, two hours of college football
• 🏈 Thursday, 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT: The BettorDay Football Show streams live on YouTube and Twitter
• ⚾ Tonight: NLCS Game 3, Brewers at Dodgers
• 🏔️ Thursday night: Seahawks at Broncos kicks off Week 6

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