CFB Playoff Rankings, Top 25 Games & NFL Week 9

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman react to the first edition of the CFB Playoff Rankings and preview the big top 25 matchups for this Saturday. Plus a look at NFL Week 9 and some College Basketball thoughts.

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🏆 THE FIRST CFP RANKINGS: "I'M CONVINCED THE COMMITTEE DOESN'T WATCH FOOTBALL"

Bearman's opening caveat, which you should hold onto: "These rankings don't mean anything. We learned that last year when Miami was 18th, Miami was out, and then Miami was IN over Notre Dame without playing another game — and then they were four minutes away from winning the national title at home versus Indiana."

Scott's tweet from last night: "A reminder — don't waste your time complaining about the College Football Playoff rankings this week. They will change, and change a lot. That being said, I'm convinced the members of the committee don't watch any football."

The four placements they can't accept

Notre Dame at 11

Bearman concedes the case against them first: "If you look at resume alone, Notre Dame doesn't have a good win. They don't. And they lost to BYU on the road — BYU's number nine in the country."

But here's the problem he's identified, and it's the sharpest forward-looking point in the segment. He asked Chris "The Bear" Fallica on his own show yesterday whether a Notre Dame loss to Miami puts them out:

⭐ "At one-versus-four, maybe not. At one-versus-eleven, Notre Dame is in the exact same position they were going to be in last year — on the outside looking in, because they don't have that big win. Head to head, they lost to BYU. Head to head, they lost to Miami. So this time around, it might come down to BYU losing in the Big 12 title game and getting in OVER Notre Dame, because they won the head to head."

Alabama at 5

And this is him arguing against his own rooting interest: "I'm usually a card-carrying member of Alabama and the SEC. Alabama's better than everybody, they deserve the benefit of the doubt, Alabama Alabama Alabama Roll Tide. They're not the fifth-best team in the country. Not even close."

The record: rolled by Tennessee, who isn't even in the rankings at 13. A close game against Georgia — but "they didn't look good. Georgia dominated that game. Tennessee dominated that game. We have a team that's number five in the country that got dominated twice."

Scott's addition: "I can make the same argument for Notre Dame losing to BYU. If they had another second on the clock, maybe they win that game. So I don't care how close the game was against Georgia. You lost to Georgia and you lost to Tennessee. You lose back-to-back games. How are you number five?"

Indiana at 4

Bearman: "Indiana hasn't beaten anybody. You don't go to overtime with Michigan and get number four in the country. You just don't do it."

And the inconsistency he keeps returning to — the backup quarterback standard:

⭐ "Hasn't the committee told us in the past that if you don't have your starting quarterback, we evaluate you differently? So you want to penalize Ohio State for having a backup quarterback — where's the penalty versus Indiana? They have a backup quarterback too. And by the way, Ohio State WON that game."

UCLA at 8 and Texas at 7

UCLA is 8-0 on their backup quarterback. Scott asks, "Where's the good win? Their win over ranked Oregon doesn't look as good because Oregon's trash."

⭐ THE STORY THAT EXPLAINS THE WHOLE POSITION

from Scott:

⭐ "When we found out — and this is a true story, go Google it — that the members of the committee went back, prior to that final vote, and re-watched that WEEK THREE game between Miami and Notre Dame to decide who gets into the playoff… when those teams were shells of themselves from what we saw in week one to where we were in week twelve, thirteen. It's like: hey guys, do your homework assignment, and let's go watch an NFL preseason game to determine who wins a division in the NFL. What? Come on."

Bearman's own top 12, tweeted before the release

He and Scott aligned on Miami-Georgia at the top and Ole Miss at 10.

"I watch college football for a living and I have Notre Dame as the third-best team in the country. I don't have strength of record and strength of schedule and game control and FPI and BPI and FBI and CIA. I don't have all that stuff in front of me. I have the eye test and I have the betting metrics."

On LSU, who isn't ranked at all: "I wouldn't want to play LSU in any way, shape or form. They might be the third-best team in the country."

And the eye-test exercise he ran out loud: "I would take Notre Dame over Ole Miss, over BYU, in a heartbeat over UCLA, over Texas and not think twice, over Kentucky probably even though I love Kentucky, over Alabama, and over Indiana. I'm taking Notre Dame over almost every team in front of them. I get it, their resume sucks. But they're still one of the best teams in the country."

🏔️ SATURDAY: THE BEST SLATE OF THE SEASON

⭐ Utah −5.5 vs. BYU (The Holy War) — leaning the home team

And yes, it's a 9 a.m. Pacific kickoff for a top-10 game

Bearman's BYU track record earns him the read: he saw them giving Notre Dame a battle without winning it, then correctly predicted UCF would beat them outright the following week.

"BYU is a good team, no doubt about it. I just don't think they're at the level of Utah. Utah is a really, really good team, deserving of the high ranking — and if they win out, they'll get a bye. They're a step above BYU. They're the best team in the conference."

On Utah's title ceiling, honestly: "Do I think they compete with Georgia, Miami and Notre Dame for the national title? Not sure they can win three games against that caliber of opponent — which is what you'd need after a first-round bye. But that doesn't mean they don't belong."

And the admission that made him a believer

⭐ "I did not see them thrashing Cincinnati. In fact, I had Cincinnati plus the points because I thought Utah was in a look-ahead spot. Well — Utah didn't look ahead. They didn't look up, they didn't look down. They looked right at Cincinnati and beat the crap out of them."

He'd said all year that Houston would be better than Texas Tech, and that was his Big 12 play. "We forgot about Utah. Utah is probably the best team in the conference." Both he and Scott are leaning toward laying the 5.5.

🚩 HOUSE SPLIT: Notre Dame −6 vs. Miami

Scott is on the Irish. Bearman is taking Miami — and he was on Notre Dame two weeks ago.

⭐ "I did state a couple of weeks ago, watching Miami struggle against Florida State, that I would take Notre Dame at anything south of three. I didn't expect this to be six. Six is a little too rich, because Miami is an offense that can score at will and I think will cover the six. To me this goes down to a last-second field goal. So I'm going to take the six on the road."

He grants Notre Dame everything first: the revenge factor, the left-at-the-altar factor, and the no-wiggle-room factor since they already have a loss. And then he explains why the wiggle room matters:

"There are going to be other 10-2 and 9-3 teams with pretty good resumes stacked up against a Notre Dame team that would have two losses, to BYU and Miami. That puts you on the bubble. We both think Notre Dame would still be in the top 12 — and if you're in the top 12 you automatically get in, the new Notre Dame rule — but I don't know if that room for error is something they really want to mess with, because they'd have zero significant wins. Even SMU on the schedule just lost last week. You start playing the who-did-you-beat schedule game and nothing good can come of that."

🏅 And this game may decide the Heisman

Bearman: "This game could very well decide the Heisman. I still think Jeremiah Smith is someone who should win it — he's the best player in the country, which is what the Heisman means to me. But we've seen one game without Julian Sayin, and if we get multiple games without Sayin that look like that, he may not win it. And if he doesn't, three of your next four candidates are right here in this game."

"None of those candidates have done anything to LOSE the Heisman. CJ Carr has plodded along. Mensah and Toney have done exactly what they're supposed to do, if not more. If any of these three have an outstanding game — and I expect one of them to, if not two — they go to the top of the race. I actually think all three of them will be in New York."

Georgia −3.5 at Ole Miss — ⭐ the play is the UNDER 56.5

Bearman is conflicted on the side and clear on the total.

"The spread is tough because I've ridden the Ole Miss train a bunch this year. I still firmly think Georgia's the best team in the country — they showed that last week against my Florida Gators. I want to lay the 3.5, but we've learned a lot of lessons about laying points on the road in the SEC."

⭐ "So I'm interested in the total. I think 56.5 is a little too high, for the fact that Georgia has one of, if not THE, best defense in the country. They totally shut down Florida last week. I think they can hold Ole Miss at bay and make this a low-scoring slugfest."

The risk he names himself: "I also know Ole Miss is more than capable of putting up a lot of points. If it's a high-scoring game, Ole Miss wins." His projection: somewhere around 24-20.

Trinidad Chambliss is the Heisman wildcard if he delivers here.

⭐ Kentucky +6.5 at Tennessee — David's Darlings, and he wants the 7

"I'm going to roll with them again. They're my darlings. They've won me money all year long. Tennessee does not have the offense that you want to lay a touchdown with."

He grants that Tennessee can win it at home like they did against Alabama. But: "This is a Kentucky team that has proven time and time out that Will Stein has them up against the best of the best, and they're beating very good teams. I think they're live. I think they can get that 34 cents at Kalshi and pay it off in the long run."

The number discipline: "I'm definitely going to be taking the 6.5, looking for a 7, to take Kentucky to once again be the covering machine that pays my kids' way through college."

Alabama at LSU — no play on the side, leaning UNDER 52.5

"The Fighting Lane Kiffins are an interesting dynamic right now because they can beat anybody in the country.They're trading at 9 cents on Kalshi, the fourth price on the board. But Alabama's a good team, and Keelon Russell is really, really good. Both these teams have playoff shots right in front of them. LSU is in a very similar position to Notre Dame, where they need it a little bit more than Alabama does."

Verdict: "Right now it's a no play — but I'd also be leaning the under 52.5."

Texas −2.5 at Missouri — ⭐ Mizzou

⭐ "I am not taking Texas on the road, laying points, in any way, shape or form. If I give Texas minus two and a half out on the road at a ranked team, you should sue me for malpractice."

"Mizzou is live. Mizzou can win this game. They've proven they can win big games before — they beat Florida. I think they can beat Texas. It's just that Texas can beat anybody and lose to anybody. If I had to pick a side — and I'm going to have to at some point — I will go with Mizzou."

🐦‍⬛ NFL THURSDAY NIGHT: THE RAVENS HAVE NO QUARTERBACK

Baltimore were 3-point favorites on the lookahead. They are now 10 to 10.5-point home dogs with their third-string quarterback starting.

Scott's pitch — double-digit favorites have been terrible at covering this season, and Jacksonville's big cover last week came at home against the one team they beat every year. Can Bearman hold his nose and take the Ravens?

No. "Tell me how they're going to score. I don't know how the Ravens are going to score. I'm not taking the Ravens at home."

⭐ PLAY ONE: RAVENS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 17.5 (was −130)

Bearman: "Minimize Derrick Henry's side of things and that will force the quarterback to throw."

And the structural read: "I think this team's in a lot of trouble. I think they're going to need to trade for a quarterback if they want to survive. They have a very, very tough division."

⭐ PLAY TWO: DERRICK HENRY UNDER 70.5 RUSHING YARDS

Why he's NOT on the full-game under 43.5

Worth noting because it's the honest version: "I worry about the under 43.5 because Jacksonville can score — they're fifth in the NFL in scoring — and we've seen the Baltimore defense utterly collapse in some halves."

⭐ THE WILDCAT: AND THE REASON BEARMAN WOULD DROP HIS OWN BET

Fiddle raised this Tuesday. Scott went further and Bearman found the precedent.

The case for Baltimore just running it 60 times:

• Tampa Bay ran it 50 times, then 56 times, in consecutive weeks — and last week Baker Mayfield attempted three passes, completed none, and they won
• Justice Hill is already prepped as the emergency quarterback if the third-stringer goes down, per Sunday's broadcast
• Derrick Henry has taken direct snaps before — as evidenced by his four career touchdown passes

⭐ Bearman's precedent: "It worked for the Miami Dolphins versus Bill Belichick's New England Patriots, who hadn't lost in two years in the regular season. And Ronnie Brown is not the caliber of Derrick Henry"

🔴 THE LIVE ANGLE — endorsed by both

If Baltimore lines up in Wildcat on the first possession, live bet the Ravens. "That tells you maybe that's the game plan for the entirety of the game. And at that point you're getting eight and a half points. Why not?"

🚩 And here's the part most handicappers wouldn't admit

⭐ Bearman: "I'm not going to want the under 17.5 if they're doing the Wildcat — because they'll score three touchdowns."

🐻 EATING CROW ON THE BEARS

Scott went first: "I have to eat a little bit of crow, swallow some pride and acknowledge that Bears team's good. I've been hating on Caleb Williams because I hadn't really seen him perform against an elite defense. And it's not like he was a world-beater Monday night — But he didn't turn the football over. And he doesn't turn the football over..."

Bearman's ceiling:

⭐ "This Bears team could absolutely go to the Super Bowl. We've talked about San Francisco and the Seahawks and the Rams. We talked about the Eagles earlier this season. Nobody in the South is worth even talking about. Like — why not Chicago?"

And the structural argument: "You've got both components. They're one of three teams in the top ten in both scoring and defensive scoring. They can look leaky at times, but this is a team that held the ball for the first eight minutes of the game, scored a touchdown, and then made Sam Darnold look like Sam Darnold."

⭐ Scott: the most impressive win of the season

⭐ "I would argue that win by the Bears in Seattle was the most impressive win of the season yet through eight weeks. They went to a top place to play, against the defending Super Bowl champions — who had just destroyed the Kansas City Chiefs at home in primetime the game before — and dominated from start to finish. Their defense looked good, their offense looked good."

Bearman's receipt, and he's entitled to it: "I know we're living in recency bias, but it actually wasn't that. I went and bet them to win the NFC after they beat the Patriots. They've now beaten the Super Bowl finalists in back-to-back games, dominating both of them."

⭐ "I know they were everyone's number one regression candidate. But they're not regressing. We talked about how they were great in one-score games last year. Well — you don't have to be in a one-score game. DON'T BE IN ONE. Now they're winning by two scores."

🏀 FLORIDA IS NUMBER ONE — AND THERE'S ALREADY A LOOK-AHEAD

The best front court in America

All three starters are back from last season, and Bearman's not hedging: "They have the best front court in America by far. They had the best front court in America last year — leading rebounds, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, blocks. They're all back. All three of them are player of the year candidates. They just dominated the glass last night. Miami had no answers on the glass, and Miami had a good center in there."

The weakness is the same weakness as last year

⭐ "Their guards are not Walter Clayton Jr. And they weren't Walter Clayton Jr. last year, and that eventually caught up to them in the tournament."

Boogie wasn't good on opening night — off from the line and from three. "He'll turn it on." And Denzel Aberdeen is back after a year at Kentucky. "If Aberdeen and Boogie have average years, this team won't be beat."

The proof of concept from last night: "The guards played terrible and they still comfortably won by ten points."

And his memory of last season, which is the reason not to panic early: "At one point they were 7-4 — and they had lost those four games by a combined seven points, to three of the top four teams in the country, including UConn.They were top five, then dropped out of the polls because they kept losing, and then all of a sudden they were a number one seed. I expect them to be a number one seed when all is said and done."

⭐ THE DECEMBER 1 LOOK-AHEAD: FLORIDA vs. DUKE

The ACC/SEC Men's Challenge, in Gainesville, a possible No. 1 versus No. 2. Florida probably 6-0.

Bearman is in: "I will be. I had it last year and covered when the game was at Cameron Indoor. They actually looked really good at Duke last year."

⭐ And Scott found the angle in Duke's schedule

⭐ "Think about the travel and everything that's going to weigh on Duke. You could have a battle-tested Duke team by then — or a tired Duke team by then. I would vote on the tired Duke team. So let's go Florida in that spot."

📅 Coming Up

Betting with Bearman: yesterday's episode features Chris "The Bear" Fallica of Fox Sports, formerly of College GameDay on ESPN — he breaks down all six ranked-versus-ranked games plus Oregon–Ohio State and UCLA, and gives his playoff picks.

🗓️ College Basketball HQ launches November 16 for Feast Week

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