NBA Finals Game 4 Preview
Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers recap Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final and preview Game 4 of the NBA Finals tonight.
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🏒 HURRICANES EVEN IT UP
Hurricanes 5, Golden Knights 3 — Stanley Cup Final tied 2-2.
Historic Over Run
Between 1995-2024, the Stanley Cup Final NEVER started 4-0 to the over.
Now? Back-to-back years 4-0 to the over
🏒 The Total Mystery
4 straight overs... total still 5.5?
Scott: "Don't you think with four straight overs, we'd see a 6.5?"
Mackenzie: "All the public money is gonna pour in on the over. I guess there's some significant backers of the under."
🏒 Conn Smythe Odds Update
| Player | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner | -200+ | -115 |
| Taylor Hall | +475 | +390 |
| Logan Stankoven | +625 | +390 |
| Jordan Staal | 75/1 | 6/1 |
Scott on Staal: "The 37-year-old vet, the captain. Two goals last night. Would be an incredible story if they win and voters give him a legacy award."
🏒 Game 5 Preview (Tomorrow)
Golden Knights at Hurricanes
| Line | Total |
|---|---|
| CAR -154 | 5.5 (over juiced) |
Series odds: Carolina -152, Vegas +126
Scott: "I still think this goes seven. This is a seven-game series if I ever saw one."
🏀 NBA Finals Game 4: Tonight
Spurs vs Knicks — At MSG
| Line | Total |
|---|---|
| NYK -1.5 | 216.5 |
No adjustment from Game 3.
🏀 The Novelty Wore Off
Scott: "I don't think the Knicks face the same pressure. President Trump will not be in attendance. All the pressure was on them in Game 3. Now they can play their game and relax."
The circus is over: No Charles Barkley eating street meat, no Spike Lee pregame interview, no watch party cancellations.
Mackenzie: "It's gonna be a more regular Knicks environment. A louder crowd, more electric, more desperate. The Knicks do better when they slow it down."
🏀 The First Quarter Dilemma
The System Says Knicks
Previous loser favored in next game (Q1 ML):
| Record |
|---|
| 22-8-1 |
But the Spurs Are Dominant
| Spurs Q1 This Postseason |
|---|
| 14-5-2 SU |
| 11-7 ATS |
| 8-1 ATS run |
Scott: "The system says the Knicks, but how do you bet against the Spurs in the first quarter?"
Mackenzie: "They were the #1 ATS team in the first quarter during the season. To be two games better than anybody else, I don't think it's coincidence."
🏀 The Officiating Factor
Mike Brown's Comments
Game 3: Spurs shot 24 FTs in the 2nd half. Knicks shot 8.
Mackenzie: "My problem with the NBA is that it's predictable. I would be surprised if the Spurs didn't get a beneficial whistle when down 0-2."
The Wemby Elbow
Wemby threw an elbow at Brunson. Nothing called on the court. NBA reviewed it — no upgrade to flagrant.
Mackenzie: "It seemed as flagrant as anything I've seen. But they're down 2-1. Two-two is a great result for the NBA, which is an entertainment product."
What This Means Tonight
Mackenzie: "Mike Brown's comments were very smart. Now if it's 35 free throws to 15, it's gonna look suspicious. They're gonna let the refs be less involved. Both ways."
Scott: "Just don't call fouls for either team. Let them play physical. We're gonna see an under game."
🏀 The Under Case
| Result | Winner |
|---|---|
| Under | Knicks |
| Under | Knicks |
| Over | Spurs |
Mackenzie: "So far in the series: two unders, two Knicks wins. One over, one Spurs win. The Knicks are gonna try to revert to that style."
🏀 Props & Series Bets
Josh Hart +1600 Rebounds Leader: ALIVE
Only 3 rebounds away from catching KAT.
Mackenzie: "Hart only three rebounds away. I feel like that's a live bet if you have some of that 16/1 in your pocket."
Finals MVP
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | +105 |
| Victor Wembanyama | +160 |
⚾ A'S IN VEGAS: THE TOTAL SAGA
| Game | Total | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| G1 | 11 | 29 runs | OVER (11 HRs) |
| G2 | 13.5 | 12 runs | Under (6 HRs) |
| G3 | 14.5 | — | Tonight |
Tonight: Brandon Sprout vs Jack Perkins
📅 Coming Up
Thursday
- NHL: Stanley Cup Final Game 5
- World Cup: Tournament begins
- Pod: Brad Thomas — World Cup preview
Friday
- Pod: Jake Hassan — College World Series preview (heading to Omaha!)
- Pod: AJ Hoffman — Game 5 preview + UFC Freedom 250
MAJOR announcements coming soon! 👀
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