Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

Baseball, 3M Open & SEC Futures

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman talk the latest in Major League Baseball, best bets for the 3m Open and SEC Futures.

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⚾ RED SOX: RAINED OUT AT 14

Only Rain Can Stop Them

Scott: "The Red Sox did not get their franchise-record-tying 15th straight win last night — only because they didn't play. Seems like rain's the only thing that can stop them right now."

Bearman: "Before the All-Star break, NOBODY thought the Red Sox would be a buyer. They were ten games under .500 at one point. I still don't think they're that good — but fourteen wins in a row is fourteen wins in a row, and they're doing it on both sides of the ball."

The deadline context: "The extra wild card has kept teams interested in buying. What do you do if you're the 50-50 Rangers? In the years we grew up with, you'd be selling. Now? Maybe you buy."

⚾ THE MARLINS MUSH

Bearman Takes Full Responsibility

The timeline:

1. Marlins win 6 in a row, 8 of 9, ten games over .500
2. Bearman goes on CBS Sportsline: "It's time to start playing those Miami Marlins"
3. They have not won since.

Bearman: "On behalf of Marlins Nation — which stretches maybe ten, twelve, fourteen people deep — I take full responsibility. Swept by Cleveland. Swept again. Now about to get swept by Houston. That is fully my fault."

The damage: Six and a half back in the division, now HALF A GAME OUT of the third wild card. (RIP the McCullough MOY momentum.)

⚾ THE WHEELER FILE: HARD-LUCK LOSS

Last Night: Dodgers 2, Phillies 1

Wheeler's line: 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 9 K — loses on a Max Muncy two-run homer.

Season: 10-2, 2.16 ERA

The Market Keeps Moving Our Way

Scott: "Miz's number keeps fading and it's going to keep going. People are starting to realize the Brewers are monitoring his innings. I'd still rather have a Wheeler ticket than Sanchez."

Bearman: "I picked Sanchez preseason and still like that ticket. But if you think Miz misses a chunk late to save him for October, you're in the right boat with Wheeler. It's one of those three."

⚾ THE SONNY GRAY QUESTION

27/1 AL Cy Young — Worth It?

The line: 12-1, 2.48 ERA, most quality starts in the AL.

Bearman: "27/1 is a hell of a number for a guy that hot. Schlittler leads for a reason, Cease is there — but if Boston somehow takes the division out of nowhere and Gray's sitting at 16-2... there's tremendous value on it."

⚾ DOUBLEHEADER DAY

Two Double Dips

The system: Bet the LOSER of game 1 in game 2. Since 2021: +20 units blind.

Bearman: "There's value in it — most doubleheaders get split anyway, and game 2 is often a call-up or a middle reliever."

Reminder: Always verify pitchers day-of — managers flip game 1/game 2 starters.

⛳ THE 3M OPEN: RETURN OF SCOTTIE ODDS

The Field Problem

Bearman: "A perfect storm — a terrible field the week after the Open, and for reasons I cannot explain, the world number one decides to play. Is he going to win? Probably. Can you BET him at +260? Absolutely not. A betting analyst cannot give out a +260 guy against 154 golfers."

Last week's receipt: ✅ Scheffler top 10 (-135) — given out right here — CASHED.

⛳ THE BEARMAN PLAY: KURT KITAYAMA 25/1

The Case

Bearman: "Without even looking at the odds, Kitayama was my play this week. He's usually 40-50/1 — here he's the second-best player in the event."

The numbers:

• 10th on approach, 8th in greens hit, 20th in driving distance
• 15th on tour / 7th in field from 175-200 yards — exactly the shot TPC Twin Cities demands (doglegs, layup tees)
• 3rd in field in strokes gained on non-difficult courses
• T6 here in 2024, WON the event last year with a course-record 60 in round three

The profile: "He's a boom-or-bust guy — he could shoot 60 one day, 80 the next. I've had him go 63-80 in an event. I think this guy can win."

Also: Bearman's one-and-done pick.

🏈 BEARMAN'S SEC CARD (via Sportsline)

The Over: Alabama Over 8.5 Wins (+100)

Bearman: "FSU at home is an EPIC revenge spot — lay the number. The gauntlet is Georgia, at Tennessee, A&M, at LSU, at Vandy — go 2-3 in those five and you hit nine wins. Last year they beat Georgia, Tennessee AND LSU. Austin Mack takes over at QB, the defense is awesome as usual, and Kalen DeBoer's job is always on the line when you're not Nick Saban."

The Under: Kentucky Under 4.5 Wins

Bearman: "I like the Will Stein hire — eventually. This is a COMPLETE rebuild. People saying 'next Indiana' — slow down. Indiana was the perfect storm of perfect storms. Last year's five wins: two MAC teams, Tennessee Tech, and Florida/Auburn in off years. They lost to Vandy and Louisville by a combined 86-17. Road games at College Station, Norman, Vandy, Tennessee, South Carolina. Home slate: Bama, LSU, Florida. I don't see five wins."

The Champion: Georgia +280

Bearman: "It's Texas or Georgia — and until Sarkisian and Arch Manning show they can actually BEAT Georgia, which they haven't in three matchups including two SEC championship games... Georgia, Georgia, and Georgia won those games. We gotta go Georgia."

📺 PROGRAMMING NOTES

• Bearman joins BettorDay EVERY Wednesday morning through football season (recorded Tuesday nights) — plays for Premium members, sprinkled free plays too
• Betting with Bearman relaunches next week — new platform, possibly more than 3 days/week, at www.BearmanBets.com

📺 ANNOUNCEMENT: THE BETTOR DAY FOOTBALL SHOW

Starting August 13th

Every Thursday — 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT

Live on the BettorDay YouTube + Twitter pages

The crew:

• Scott Seidenberg
• Steve Fezzik
• Joshua Nunn, aka Duck

Scott, Fezz, and Duck. Live chat open — bring your questions and join the conversation. Also available in podcast form.