World Cup Semifinal 2 & Open Championship Preview
Scott Seidenberg and Brad Thomas preview today's 2nd Semi Final match at the World Cup between England and Argentina. Plus a preview of the Open Championship with Best Bets!
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⚽ SPAIN STUNS FRANCE — THE UPSET
Spain 2, France 0
The result: Spain blanks the tournament favorite to reach the World Cup final.
The context: This was billed as the "true championship" — team 1A vs 1B. Spain's defense, which had conceded ONE goal all tournament, pitched another shutout when it mattered most.
⚾ ALL-STAR GAME: AL BLANKS NL
American League 4, National League 0
| Detail | Note |
|---|---|
| AL pitching | 15 strikeouts vs the NL lineup |
| MVP | Cody Bellinger — 2-run single in the 1st off Cristopher Sanchez |
⚽ TODAY: ENGLAND vs ARGENTINA
The Semifinal Odds (To Advance)
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| England | -128 |
| Argentina | +112 |
Surprised England Is Favored?
Brad: "Yes — I thought Argentina would get the benefit of the doubt. But we've poked holes in their play. Pushed to the brink by Cape Verde, should have lost to Egypt if not for VAR, Switzerland had them too."
The analytics defense of Argentina: "When they conceded two to Cape Verde, the xG against was like 0.5. The numbers backed them up. But England is SO talented."
Brad: "I was shocked by the price, but this game is gonna be tight. Really, really tight."
The Tuchel Factor
The England manager after the quarterfinal win: Happy they survived the triple-digit Miami heat — but NOT impressed.
Brad: "His biggest gripe was moving the ball at a snail's pace. You're not breaking down teams at this level playing that slow. This team keeps getting rescued by individual efforts — Kane, Bellingham. They need full team performances to win the World Cup."
THE BEST BET: Both Teams to Score (-128, incl. ET)
Scott: "England has the firepower, Argentina has conceded, and they always come back — you can never count them out."
Brad: "BTTS is hitting like crazy in Argentina matches, like crazy in England matches. And listen — there will be the xG truthers who say you can't bet it. When one team has Messi and the other has Harry Kane — two guys who create something out of nothing — you have to."
⚽ THE VALUE PLAY: BELLINGHAM GOLDEN BALL +440 (Now down to +240)
Betting England Without Betting England
Scott: "It's a way to bet an England future without betting the England future. If they reach the final, even if they LOSE it, Bellingham with an assist or another brace — look at me with the soccer lingo — has a real case at +440."
Brad: "Jude has been everything I believed in. And you're not giving the Golden Ball to the Golden Boot winner — if Messi wins the boot, he's not getting the ball too. Bellingham has a really good case. But England HAS to make the final — the race is too tight otherwise."
Tournament odds: England +290, Argentina +370 (Spain -155 awaits Sunday).
⛳ THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP: ROYAL BIRKDALE
Tees Off Tonight (West Coast) / Early Thursday (East)
Defending champ: Scottie Scheffler (won at Portrush by 4 over Harris English)
The Board
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +700 |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 15/1 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 15/1 |
Scott: "You're so accustomed to Scotty priced so far above the field you can't bet him. Not this week."
Brad's Scheffler Defense — The Bounce-Back Data
The doubt: Scheffler MISSED THE CUT last week — first time in over a thousand days.
Brad: "People forget how good Scottie Scheffler is. Every time he loses strokes on approach, look what follows:"
| Bad Approach Tournament | Next Start |
|---|---|
| Last week's missed cut | ??? |
| Before the Players | Gained on approach, nearly won |
| Before the Masters run | Playoff at the championship |
| Genesis 2024 | WON Arnold Palmer |
| Late-season loss | Won Tour Championship |
Brad: "The man follows up bad tournaments with good tournaments EVERY TIME. He's one of the best ball strikers in the world."
Brad's Add: Matt Fitzpatrick (15/1, Top 10 +145)
Brad: "Pure flusher — and at Birkdale you need to pound approach shots. Three wins this season. People want off him because he missed five putts inside five feet at the Scottish — and he STILL gained 1.1 strokes putting. Fitzpatrick is the real deal. He wins another major in the next two years, and an Open is a really good fit."
Brad's Long Shot: Viktor Hovland 50/1
Brad: "For the next FIVE SEASONS, I will bet Hovland every Open regardless of form. He is going to win an Open championship. Pure flusher, and the 'bad around the greens' problem doesn't exist here — you can play everything along the ground. Too tight a lie? Just putt it. Links golf eliminates his weakness."
The Norway angle: "Will the crowd be on him after England knocked Norway out? A little — but he's such a fan favorite. You saw the love when he beat Scheffler at the Travelers."
📅 Coming Up
Today
- World Cup SEMIFINAL: England vs Argentina
Tonight/Tomorrow
- The Open Championship: Round 1 at Royal Birkdale
Sunday
- WORLD CUP FINAL: Spain vs England/Argentina winner
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