Betting the NFL Preseason & 32 in 32: Tennessee Titans

Scott Seidenberg and Steve Fezzik talk betting the NFL preseason starting with the Hall of Fame Game for tomorrow. Plus Fezzik's preseason Power Ratings & some insights from Fezzik's Sports Betting Bootcamp. Our 32 in 32 NFL Team Previews continue with the Tennessee Titans.

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🏈 FEZZIK ON BETTING THE NFL PRESEASON

Steve Fezzik joins ahead of the Football Show debut — football is finally here. Hall of Fame Game is tomorrow.

🏈 RULE ONE: THE 1 AND THE 2

Fezzik: "Information is king — But there are things that repeat over and over. Namely, the value of the 1 and the 2 in preseason. Games land on one and two way more because teams will go for two at the end of the game."

The application: "Arizona is catching anywhere from pick to plus one. Don't bet Arizona at pick'em — get the plus one if you like them."

🏈 THE BOOKS ARE GUESSING TOO

The +145 Story

The setup: A game lined essentially at pick'em. Arizona a tiny dog. The prop: last team to score in the first half.

What Fezzik got Arizona: +145.

Why it's crazy: "It's the LAST team to score, not the first — so it doesn't matter who gets the ball first. It's priced as a three-way line like the European model, so I'd lose on 0-0. But the chance of a nil-nil first half is extremely low. Plus 145 on a team that isn't even the dog."

The Thesis

Fezzik: "You hear all the time 'Vegas knows.' If there's one thing I'd emphasize: Vegas and all the Hall of Fame bookmakers know NOTHING. They accept bets and copy lines and make tons of money because it's almost impossible to beat a market number day-of at -110. Once the number is cemented, the number is correct. But ask a Vegas bookmaker to make a virgin line on anything unusual and the mistakes are staggering. It's just not their cup of tea."

The proof is in the limits: "Regular season limits are $100,000. Right now you'll struggle to get $1,000 down. The bookmaker is telling you 'I have no idea what the number should be. I'm just guessing.' Limits used to be larger and they got their teeth kicked in. Not as bad as the draft — they've taken those off the board entirely because they can't beat the sharpest bettors. In preseason they know people want to bet it, it's profitable off square money, so they just cap the max."

The takeaway: This is the single best time of year to shop lines across books.

🏈 HALL OF FAME GAME: CAROLINA vs ARIZONA (Thursday)

Fezzik's number: "I think it should be 35.25 — meaning 35 looks slightly low, 35.5 slightly high. At 36.5 I'd be willing to go under. At 35.5 I have just a small lean to the under."

The Canales case: "He doesn't care about winning in preseason. Last year: lost 30-10, 20-3, and 19-10. That's not a coach with Carolina you're looking to invest in."

Note: Four straight OVERS in the Hall of Fame game, despite all the under talk.

Scott's Theory: First-Year Head Coaches Lean OVER

Scott: "You might think under because the offense is learning a new system. I think it's the opposite. They're still trying to score — they're not satisfied playing out the string with four minutes left. That's another live rep for a brand new install. Plus they're establishing a culture."

Fezzik agrees: "Your first week on a new job — are you mailing it in? You want to show everyone you belong. I think first-year head coaches in the FOURTH QUARTER care more about establishing a relationship with their new city, organization, and media, and not answering questions about why their team looked unprepared. Whereas the Rams don't care."

On Harbaugh with the Giants: "I'd bet on him or pass. He's the type of guy who, playing pickup basketball against a sibling two years younger, absolutely refuses to give an inch even while he's killing him. That's who you want to bet when the games are meaningless — because they still mean something to him."

📊 FEZZIK'S POWER RATINGS ARE LIVE

Where: BettorDay.com → NFL tab → Power Ratings, or the NFL tab in the Bettor Day mobile app for Insider & Premium Members.

⚠️ IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION: These are REGULAR SEASON power ratings published during preseason — they are not for betting preseason games. They'll be updated throughout August before Week 1.

The Top of the Board

THE METHODOLOGY

Fezzik: "There are two ways. The Kenny White method — evaluate how good a team was, additions and subtractions, what those players are worth. I lack the acumen to even attempt that. So mine is largely market-based."

Step 1: Season Win Totals

Step 2: Strength of Schedule

Using projected opponent win totals (not last year's records) from Marc Lawrence's magazine, divided by 17.

The Rams: Win total 11.8, but their average opponent is projected to win 8.9 games — a significantly harder schedule than average. So they get bumped UP.

Step 3: THE TRENCH REPORT

Fezzik: "And then I use the Bettor Day Trench Report. What's this? The Rams are the number one trench team in the NFL. This was a shock to me — I always thought about the Rams as Stafford and Puka, skill positions, thin, injury-prone. They're actually rock solid on the lines. I feel they're undervalued because of that, so I bumped them up.

And what's this? The Cincinnati Bengals, the worst trench report of all 32 teams. We make an adjustment for that."

Step 4: Outside Projections + Injury Regression

Football Outsiders, CleveTA. "They don't like Baltimore — their average Ravens win total is 9.9, so I lowered Baltimore. They love the Jets, so I bumped the Jets."

The Dr. Chao injury adjustment: "Any team that was super healthy last year — like Jacksonville — I LOWER, because that injury advantage is unlikely to continue. Any team that got murdered by injuries — Arizona got crushed — gets a big adjustment up."

The 2026 wrinkle: "It's hard this year because there are arrows pointing up for Miami, Arizona, Cleveland, and the Jets — four teams whose organizations may not even WANT to win this year. That's counterintuitive."

🎓 THE BETTING BOOT CAMP: THE WHITE FLAG UNDER

Last weekend in Vegas — Scott spoke Friday on live betting college football. Other great guest presented on Saturday like Michael Fiddle, Carl Sack, and Bill Krackomberger.

Fezzik's Live CFB Concept

The setup: Tulsa at Oklahoma. Nine minutes left, Tulsa trails by 28, fourth and five from midfield.

They PUNT → "They're basically saying no más, you win, we just don't want to get annihilated. Oklahoma responds by running it 15 straight times. Cease hostilities. That's the white flag under."

They GO FOR IT → "As John Goodman says in Revenge of the Nerds — these guys just went for it on fourth and five against us in the fourth quarter. 'If it was me, I'd do something about it.' Expect the favorite to pound them and score again and again."

📱 Reminders

• Fezzik's Power Ratings are live at BettorDay.com and in the NFL HQ Section of the Bettor Day Mobile app (Insider & Premium access)
• Fezzik's full betting card: SICpicks.com — teamed with Dr. Chao's group. Fezz will still be providing SELECT plays for Bettor Day Premium Members, but for his FULL betting card, you can ONLY find him at SIC. He DOES NOT have a website.

Bettor Day Members can get a discount of Steve Fezzik's SIC Picks Package by using the Promo Code FEZVIP

🏈 32 IN 32: TENNESSEE TITANS

The Market

Awards: Robert Saleh +1600 Coach of the Year | Carnell Tate +650 Offensive ROY (3rd favorite)

Props: Cam Ward passing TDs 19.5 | Carnell Tate receiving yards 774.5

The Overhaul

Coming off back-to-back three-win seasons, with changes in the front office, on the sideline, and in the locker room.

The weapons for Cam Ward: Carnell Tate (4th overall pick), Calvin Ridley looking for a resurgence, and Wan'Dale Robinson — who followed Daboll from New York — likely in the slot.

The Tate angle: "Malik Nabers had 170 targets in his rookie year under Daboll. Daboll is not afraid to call plays for a rookie."

The Numbers

The concern: Position battles at multiple spots on the offensive line.

The Verdict: PASS

Scott: "I do agree the Titans are much improved. But until I see it from Cam Ward, I don't know if I can trust it. The schedule is manageable — it's a last-place schedule with games against the Jets, Giants, and Browns — but they also draw the AFC North and NFC East, so that's the Eagles, the Ravens, plus Detroit and an improved Raiders team.

📅 Coming Up

Tomorrow

• HALL OF FAME GAME — football is back
• 32 in 32: Denver Broncos (AFC West begins)

Friday

• 32 in 32: Kansas City Chiefs

August 13th

• The BettorDay Football Show debuts — Scott, Fezz & Duck, Thursdays 2 PM ET

📻 FALL CONTENT PLANS — LOCKED IN

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