BMW Championship & 32 in 32: Detroit Lions

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman preview the Detroit Lions, part of the 32 in 32 NFL team previews, and update the NFL Trench Report with Preseason & Injury data. Plus David previews the BMW Championship, the 2nd event of the PGA Fedex Cup Playoffs.

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🏈 32 IN 32: DETROIT LIONS

The Market

Jahmyr Gibbs: +650 Offensive Player of the Year (FAVORITE) — Bijan Robinson +900, Ja'Marr Chase 10/1

The Case: They Never Actually Fell Off

Bearman: "It's not ancient history. They won 15 games and the division two years ago. And last year they didn't go 4-13 — they won NINE and finished two games out of first. All four teams in that division won at least nine games.

I really don't want the media labeling this a worst-to-first thing when a team goes from nine wins to eleven and wins the division. They're the best team in the division, they got better in the offseason, and they didn't miss by much. They were in injury hell, and they went 3-6 in one-score games. That's all it takes when you go 9-8 and miss the playoffs — the margin isn't that high. This team wins 14 this year and nobody's surprised."

Scott: "A lot of people, myself included, were down on them last year because losing both coordinators means an adjustment. This feels like the year it comes together. And even after losing Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, they were 7-4 through 11 games."

⭐ THE PLAY: OVER 10.5 WINS

Bearman's Schedule Math

(A callback to last week's "first-place schedule is a myth" rant — with an exception.)

Bearman: "There are times where a last-place schedule actually makes a difference. Detroit technically finished last, so they play the other last-place teams: Arizona, Tennessee, and the Giants — instead of Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Philly, which Chicago gets."

Bearman: "This is an over 10.5, and you're only going up two wins from last year. They were 8-5 going into Week 15 before losing to the Rams, Steelers, and Vikings. This team is a lot closer to the 15-win team than the 9-win team."

Scott: "Eleven feels like the right number — and that's all you need to cash. Eleven wins likely wins this division too, so if you like the over you like them at +150 to win the NFC North."

⭐ JAHMYR GIBBS, OPOY

The Snap Math

Montgomery is gone.

Scott: "A two-year average of 400 snaps freed up. He doesn't even have to get half of them — give him 150 more and we're talking about ~900 snaps. He put up what he put up in 737."

Bearman: "1,900 total yards and 20 touchdowns WITH Montgomery splitting time. Montgomery added about a thousand yards and 14 more touchdowns. He won't get all of it — but he can put up numbers that rival what Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor did in their OPOY years. He's not winning MVP because no running back does — that's a quarterback award. But 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns and it's his. There's a reason he's going 1.1 in a lot of fantasy drafts."

The Schedule Kicker

Scott: "Per the Trench Report, Detroit faces the third softest run defense schedule of any team this season. He's the favorite for a reason — he's the one I want in this market."

📊 TRENCH REPORT V2 IS LIVE

Updated for preseason Week 1 and the league-wide injury wave. Insider & Premium members — BettorDay.com and the Bettor Day Mobile App. Updated every week from here, all preseason and all season.

The Top 5

The Bottom 3 — And the Big Movers

Unit Leaderboards

Best run blocking: Rams, 49ers, Broncos, Colts, Cowboys (5th) — "they just can't pass protect"

Worst run defenses (the teams to pick on all year): Cardinals (dead last), Falcons, Chargers, Packers, and — awkwardly — the Vikings, a team Scott is high on

⛳ THE BMW CHAMPIONSHIP

Back to Scottie Odds

Last week's receipt: ✅ Scheffler top 5 at EVEN MONEY cashed — and he won the event by EIGHT strokes. "You don't get even money on Scottie top five often. That was our protection against him finishing runner-up to someone hotter, which happened all year."

⭐ SCHEFFLER TOP 5 AGAIN (-164)

The form: Top-5 in 12 of 18 events this year, including five of his last six. 2024 FedEx Cup champion. Leads the tour in overall strokes gained and tee-to-green, 4th off the tee, 3rd putting, 6th approach.

The course fit: "The BMW setup in St. Louis is a perfect fit. Longer layout that necessitates long iron shots and quality drives, with a little leeway off the tee. Dog legs, long irons — he leads the tour in greens in regulation and he's 14th in long approaches. If there was one course all season built for him, it's this one, a week after winning by eight."

Bearman: "I like -164 — I think it closes closer to two dollars. He probably wins it. He probably wins all three of these events. But there are 49 other guys, and I'm not taking +280 in a 50-man field."

⚠️ The regression note: "Last week was the best putting round of his CAREER — 21 wins and he's never putted better. That's coming back down. But everything else was great."

⭐ THE WINNER-WITHOUT-SCOTTIE MARKET

The structural play: if you think Scottie wins, protect yourself in a 50-man field.

Si Woo Kim — 19/1 without Scottie (27/1 outright)

Bearman: "People are going to think I have a man crush on him. I do.

Best long iron player on tour. Third in approach. First on tour from 150-175 yards. Second from 175-200. Sixth in driving accuracy. Gained nearly two shots on approach last week, third in the field.

It always comes down to putting for Si Woo — and he gained strokes putting for the third time in four weeks. He has five top-threes this year and what do they have in common? He gained putting in all of them. I believe he wins last week if Scottie Scheffler isn't Scottie Scheffler — and Si Woo finished SECOND to him."

The Long Shots

Colin Morikawa — 27/1 without Scottie

"A big disappointment last week because he couldn't putt — but he hadn't played since the Open, so I'll call it rust.Overall there's nobody better on tour with the irons: first in approach, 17th hitting greens, 16th from 175-200. He was great at the Travelers finishing third with four rounds in the 70s. He just needs to make putts."

Kurt Kitayama — 33/1 without Scottie (48/1 outright)

"The ultimate boom-or-bust guy — as many finishes inside the top 12 as outside the top 50. Last two weeks: 24th and 12th. 10th in approach, 15th in long approaches. And he's the perfect bubble golfer — currently 28th, and you need top 30 for the Tour Championship. He needs a good week. Kitayama either finishes top five or 50th."

🛒 THE GOLF SHOPPING PSA

Scott: "Golf is unlike other sports. If a book has a football game at -3 and others are at -2.5, they copycat the sharp books. Golf odds move on HOLD and where the action is. Shop around."

📅 Coming Up

TOMORROW

• AJ Hoffman + we wrap the NFC North on 32 in 32, plus college football futures
• 🎬 THE BETTOR DAY FOOTBALL SHOW — 2 PM ET on YouTube and X @better_day. This week's theme: BETTING LOOK-AHEAD SPOTS.

Also

• Bearman's NFC North preview with Scott drops Thursday on Betting with Bearman
• Chris "The Bear" Fallica (Fox Big Noon Kickoff) joins Bearman Thursday the 27th for college football
• BearmanBets.com newsletter Mon/Wed/Fri — the Future of the Week drops today, and "there may be an NFC North tint to it"

The Bettor Day app is now available on BOTH Apple and Google Play