> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Wednesday, August 19th, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/wednesday-august-19th-2026/ - Published: 2026-08-19T10:00:25.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-19T10:00:24.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## BMW Championship & 32 in 32: Detroit Lions *Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman preview the Detroit Lions, part of the 32 in 32 NFL team previews, and update the NFL Trench Report with Preseason & Injury data. Plus David previews the BMW Championship, the 2nd event of the PGA Fedex Cup Playoffs.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) # 🏈 32 IN 32: DETROIT LIONS ## The Market | Market | Line | | ------------- | -------------------------------- | | **Win total** | **10.5** (over, slightly juiced) | | **NFC North** | **+150** (favorite) | | Make playoffs | \-205 | | Super Bowl | +1800 | **Jahmyr Gibbs: +650 Offensive Player of the Year (FAVORITE)** — Bijan Robinson +900, Ja'Marr Chase 10/1 --- ## The Case: They Never Actually Fell Off **Bearman:** "It's not ancient history. They won 15 games and the division two years ago. **And last year they didn't go 4-13 — they won NINE and finished two games out of first.** All four teams in that division won at least nine games. **I really don't want the media labeling this a worst-to-first thing** when a team goes from nine wins to eleven and wins the division. They're the best team in the division, they got better in the offseason, and they didn't miss by much. **They were in injury hell, and they went 3-6 in one-score games.** That's all it takes when you go 9-8 and miss the playoffs — the margin isn't that high. **This team wins 14 this year and nobody's surprised.**" **Scott:** "A lot of people, myself included, were down on them last year because losing both coordinators means an adjustment. **This feels like the year it comes together.** And even after losing Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, they were 7-4 through 11 games." --- ## ⭐ THE PLAY: OVER 10.5 WINS ### Bearman's Schedule Math *(A callback to last week's "first-place schedule is a myth" rant — with an exception.)* **Bearman:** "There are times where a **last-place** schedule actually makes a difference. Detroit technically finished last, so they play the other last-place teams: **Arizona, Tennessee, and the Giants — instead of Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Philly, which Chicago gets.**" | Block | Projected | | ------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------- | | AFC East (Patriots at home, Dolphins, Jets — early trip to Buffalo) | **3 wins** | | NFC South | **3 wins** | | Arizona, Tennessee, Giants | **3 wins** | | **Subtotal — before any division games** | **9** | | Division play | "Two? Three? Probably four, maybe five." | **Bearman:** "**This is an over 10.5, and you're only going up two wins from last year.** They were 8-5 going into Week 15 before losing to the Rams, Steelers, and Vikings. **This team is a lot closer to the 15-win team than the 9-win team.**" **Scott:** "Eleven feels like the right number — and that's all you need to cash. **Eleven wins likely wins this division too**, so if you like the over you like them at +150 to win the NFC North." --- ## ⭐ JAHMYR GIBBS, OPOY ### The Snap Math | Season | Gibbs | Montgomery | | --------- | ------- | ---------- | | Last year | **737** | 408 | | 2024 | 691 | 407 | **Montgomery is gone.** **Scott:** "A two-year average of 400 snaps freed up. **He doesn't even have to get half of them** — give him 150 more and we're talking about \~900 snaps. He put up what he put up in 737." **Bearman:** "**1,900 total yards and 20 touchdowns WITH Montgomery splitting time.** Montgomery added about a thousand yards and 14 more touchdowns. He won't get all of it — but he can put up numbers that rival what Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor did in their OPOY years. **He's not winning MVP because no running back does — that's a quarterback award. But 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns and it's his.** There's a reason he's going 1.1 in a lot of fantasy drafts." ### The Schedule Kicker **Scott:** "Per the Trench Report, Detroit faces the **third softest run defense schedule of any team this season.** He's the favorite for a reason — **he's the one I want in this market.**" --- # 📊 TRENCH REPORT V2 IS LIVE **Updated for preseason Week 1 and the league-wide injury wave.** Insider & Premium members — BettorDay.com and the Bettor Day Mobile App. **Updated every week from here, all preseason and all season.** --- ## The Top 5 | Rank | Team | | ---- | ----------------------- | | 1 | **Los Angeles Rams** | | 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | | 3 | Denver Broncos | | 4 | Houston Texans | | 5 | **Pittsburgh Steelers** | ## The Bottom 3 — And the Big Movers | Rank | Team | Why | | ------ | ------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------- | | **32** | **GREEN BAY PACKERS** | Micah Parsons out until October — dead last | | 31 | Cincinnati Bengals | — | | **30** | **WASHINGTON COMMANDERS** | Tunsil out — **pass blocking falls from top-tier to 21st** | --- ## Unit Leaderboards **Best run blocking:** Rams, 49ers, Broncos, Colts, **Cowboys (5th)** — "they just can't pass protect" **Worst run defenses (the teams to pick on all year):** **Cardinals (dead last)**, Falcons, Chargers, Packers, and — awkwardly — **the Vikings**, a team Scott is high on --- # ⛳ THE BMW CHAMPIONSHIP ### Back to Scottie Odds | Golfer | Odds | | --------------------- | -------- | | **Scottie Scheffler** | **+300** | | Rory McIlroy | +1600 | **Last week's receipt:** ✅ **Scheffler top 5 at EVEN MONEY cashed** — and he won the event by EIGHT strokes. "You don't get even money on Scottie top five often. That was our protection against him finishing runner-up to someone hotter, which happened all year." --- ## ⭐ SCHEFFLER TOP 5 AGAIN (-164) **The form:** Top-5 in **12 of 18 events** this year, including **five of his last six.** 2024 FedEx Cup champion. Leads the tour in overall strokes gained and tee-to-green, 4th off the tee, 3rd putting, 6th approach. **The course fit:** "The BMW setup in St. Louis is a **perfect** fit. Longer layout that necessitates long iron shots and quality drives, with a little leeway off the tee. Dog legs, long irons — **he leads the tour in greens in regulation and he's 14th in long approaches.** If there was one course all season built for him, it's this one, a week after winning by eight." **Bearman:** "**I like -164 — I think it closes closer to two dollars.** He probably wins it. He probably wins all three of these events. **But there are 49 other guys, and I'm not taking +280 in a 50-man field.**" **⚠️ The regression note:** "**Last week was the best putting round of his CAREER** — 21 wins and he's never putted better. That's coming back down. But everything else was great." --- ## ⭐ THE WINNER-WITHOUT-SCOTTIE MARKET *The structural play: if you think Scottie wins, protect yourself in a 50-man field.* ### Si Woo Kim — 19/1 without Scottie (27/1 outright) **Bearman:** "People are going to think I have a man crush on him. **I do.** **Best long iron player on tour.** Third in approach. **First on tour from 150-175 yards. Second from 175-200.** Sixth in driving accuracy. Gained nearly two shots on approach last week, third in the field. It always comes down to putting for Si Woo — **and he gained strokes putting for the third time in four weeks.** He has five top-threes this year and what do they have in common? He gained putting in all of them. **I believe he wins last week if Scottie Scheffler isn't Scottie Scheffler** — and Si Woo finished SECOND to him." ### The Long Shots **Colin Morikawa — 27/1 without Scottie** "A big disappointment last week because he couldn't putt — **but he hadn't played since the Open, so I'll call it rust.**Overall there's nobody better on tour with the irons: **first in approach**, 17th hitting greens, 16th from 175-200\. He was great at the Travelers finishing third with four rounds in the 70s. He just needs to make putts." **Kurt Kitayama — 33/1 without Scottie (48/1 outright)** "**The ultimate boom-or-bust guy** — as many finishes inside the top 12 as outside the top 50\. Last two weeks: 24th and 12th. 10th in approach, 15th in long approaches. **And he's the perfect bubble golfer — currently 28th, and you need top 30 for the Tour Championship. He needs a good week.** Kitayama either finishes top five or 50th." --- ## 🛒 THE GOLF SHOPPING PSA **Scott:** "Golf is unlike other sports. If a book has a football game at -3 and others are at -2.5, they copycat the sharp books. **Golf odds move on HOLD and where the action is.** **Shop around.**" --- ## 📅 Coming Up ### TOMORROW - **AJ Hoffman** \+ we wrap the NFC North on 32 in 32, plus college football futures - **🎬 THE BETTOR DAY FOOTBALL SHOW** — 2 PM ET on [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@BettorDay?ref=bettorday.com) and X [@better\_day.](https://x.com/Bettor%5FDay?ref=bettorday.com) **This week's theme: BETTING LOOK-AHEAD SPOTS.** ### Also - **Bearman's NFC North preview with Scott** drops Thursday on Betting with Bearman - **Chris "The Bear" Fallica** (Fox Big Noon Kickoff) joins Bearman **Thursday the 27th** for college football - [BearmanBets.com](https://www.bearmanbets.com/?ref=bettorday.com) newsletter Mon/Wed/Fri — **the Future of the Week drops today**, and "there may be an NFC North tint to it" --- ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/08/app-promo-newsletter-horizontal.png) **The Bettor Day app is now available on BOTH** [**Apple**](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bettor-day/id6783427144%20Bettor%20Day?ref=bettorday.com) **and** [**Google Play**](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.bettorday.app&ref=bettorday.com) --- [ Bettor Day Exclusive Sportsbook Promos Promo Codes, Unlocked For You We've partnered with top sportsbooks to bring exclusive sign-up offers to the Bettor Day community. 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