FedEx St Jude Championship & 32 in 32: NY Giants

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman preview the first leg of the PGA Playoffs with Best Bets for the FedEx St Jude Championship. Plus Kyler Murray is QB1 and our 32 in 32 previews continue with the New York Football Giants.

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⛳ THE FEDEX CUP PLAYOFFS BEGIN

The Format

The rule: Win the Tour Championship, win the FedEx Cup. (Tommy Fleetwood did it last year.)

Bearman: "I've never been a huge fan of the playoff system — years ago a guy could win the event and someone else won the FedEx Cup, like Tiger and Justin Rose. One year a guy won the first two playoff events and didn't have to play the rest of the way. What they have now is as good as it's going to get until they blow the whole thing up two years from now and start from scratch, which we know they're going to do."

⛳ TPC SOUTHWIND: THE COURSE PROFILE

Bearman: "Your typical TPC positional course — you've got to hit drives in the fairway to get your long approaches. Not overly long, but 11 water hazards, and water can kill your round. Driving accuracy over driving distance. Long irons are big, as is putting, because it's Bermuda grass — very similar to what they see in Florida.

So I want tee-to-green specialists who putt on Bermuda. Basically guys who play well in Florida. And it's going to be mid-to-high 90s in Memphis. This sets up very similar to TPC Sawgrass."

⭐ THE PLAY: HIDEKI MATSUYAMA

The price: +2500 at FanDuel.

The form:

• 7th at Greensboro last week — third straight top 10, fifth straight top 15
• Nobody else in the field has five straight top 15s
• Gained strokes on approach in 5 of the last 6 events and 11 of 14

The course history:

• WON here in 2024
• Lost in a playoff in 2021
• 17th last year
• All-time strokes gained leader at this course

Bearman: "The one thing he hasn't done is win this year. But if he's going to do it, it's going to be on a course like TPC Southwind."

The Board

⛳ CAM YOUNG: WAIT A WEEK

Bearman: "Not playing him this week, even though I absolutely think he could win the entire FedEx Cup — he's going to make the Tour Championship regardless of what he does the next two weeks, so he just has to win in Atlanta.And I think East Lake is good for him.

I'm not betting him now because he putted beyond bad last week — made the cut on the number, made a little run Saturday, went right back Sunday because he couldn't make a putt. That's his M.O. When Cam Young putts well, he wins Doral, wins the Players, finishes runner-up at the Open and US Open. When he doesn't, he goes four straight events without a top 25. I'd like to see him make some putts and get a top 10 or 20 this week so I can play him in Chicago and Atlanta."

⛳ THE KOIVUN SITUATION: TOP 10 AT +310

The Math That Makes It

The bind: Koivun made it in at No. 70. To reach next week in Chicago, he needs to finish THIRD or better to climb into the top 50.

Bearman: "So if he's going to get there, it's going to BE a top 10 — because he needs third or better. And you could also middle that: he gets seventh or sixth, he doesn't go on, and you win the bet.

I was disappointed in his weekend — he tailed off Sunday. You don't know if it's getting a little too big for him, because now his season is on the line. But he has the talent."

The history: Koivun made the playoffs on the second-fewest starts in a season ever — one shy of Tiger Woods coming off an injury-shortened year.

⛳ Two More Names

Tommy Fleetwood — 20/1 outright, ~2/1 top 10

"He had the lead on the back nine here Sunday last year and watched it slip away to Justin Rose. But that wasn't a fluke — two top-threes in the last three years, the only player in the field who's done that. And even in a down year he's got five top 15s in his last eight starts. I like him in a top 10 near 2/1."

Tom Kim — "He cashed us a top 10 last week and almost won the event. I think Tom Kim could win this entire thing."

🏈 KYLER MURRAY IS THE VIKINGS' STARTER

The Ticket Cashing In

Scott: "As someone holding a Kyler Murray Comeback Player of the Year ticket at +650 — I'm not shocked. Some people say there wasn't a fair quarterback competition. Does there need to be? JJ McCarthy was one of the worst quarterbacks in football last year."

Bearman: "Murray had the inside edge from the beginning, because Minnesota made the mistake last year — not re-signing Sam Darnold and believing in McCarthy. They even had Daniel Jones on the roster and let him go. If you're that front office, you've put your faith in McCarthy one too many times. Time to move on. Not a big Kyler Murray guy, but if he plays like the Kyler Murray we expected five or six years ago, they could be right in the mix — and you cash that ticket."

The market: Murray now +550, passing Jayden Daniels as the second favorite.

🏈 32 IN 32: NEW YORK GIANTS

The Market

Awards: John Harbaugh +650 Coach of the Year (FAVORITE) | Malik Nabers +1900 Comeback Player of the Year

FADE THE COACH OF THE YEAR FAVORITE

Scott: "To win Coach of the Year you need name recognition and you have to take an underperforming team and exceed expectations. My hesitation: the Giants' expectations have already RISEN. Their win total is 7.5, not 5.5. If they go 8-9, people will say what a turnaround — but that's right on par with what the market expects. Harbaugh probably has to make them a playoff team to win this."

Bearman: "You just said it. And the reason I don't like it — I don't think this team does that.

If Harbaugh couldn't take a much, much better Baltimore team to more than eight wins last year, why would he take THIS Giants team to eight or nine? Harbaugh is no longer in Baltimore because he underachieved with more talented teams and didn't keep Lamar happy. I'm not sold on the whole Harbaugh phenomenon right now.

The Offense Question Mark

The hire: Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator.

Scott: "There was a time Nagy was a heavily coveted offensive mind. How does Jaxson Dart thrive in a Nagy offense? Do they want him running? Read option? Or is it a downfield attack where Nabers gets multiple deep shots? I don't know what this offense will look like."

Bearman: "It's a lot easier to be a genius coordinator when Patrick Mahomes is behind center."

Tuesday's Camp Report

Per Jordan Raanan (ESPN), Nagy said there will be highs and lows with Dart as they learn a new scheme, and they're trying to get as many plays on tape as possible to see what works.

On Tuesday's practice specifically, Nagy said: "Average practice. Below average." — regarding Dart's performance.

The Bearman Reality Check

Bearman: "Yes, if Nagy gets Dart under control, Nabers comes back with no rust, and Skattebo keeps his head on straight and runs up the middle for touchdowns — and they have a decent defense — this team could do damage. But that's a LOT of ifs.

You've got a quarterback who runs around like Sonic the Hedgehog, one more hit from being lost. A running back with one four-game stint where he was all-world before getting injured. A receiver coming off his first major injury. New coordinator, new head coach.

And remember — neither Dart nor Skattebo was drafted to be the starter. You had Russell Wilson for a reason. Dart wasn't a high early pick. Skattebo was a mid-round pick. They stepped up for a good four to six weeks last year and everybody decided this was the team of the future. Maybe they're just not that good to begin with."

🎯 THE PLAYS

1. Giants UNDER 7.5 Wins

Bearman's schedule math: "The likely wins are Tennessee, Arizona, Washington, New Orleans, and Cleveland — home winnable games. Say you get five. You still need three more, and I don't see it with road trips to LA, Houston, Philly, Indy, Seattle, Detroit, and Dallas. Seven and ten is the limit for this team — which would still be a decent season in New York."

2. Jaxson Dart UNDER 3,150.5 Passing Yards

Bearman: "Forget injuries for a minute — he averaged 189.3 yards per game in 12 starts last year. Project that over 17 games and you get about 3,200 — right at the number, barely over, and that's with all 17 games. Do you think Jaxson Dart plays 17 games? Maybe his numbers go up with a new OC. But is he playing 15? All it takes is one concussion and you've got this under locked up."

3. Isaiah Likely Props (week to week)

Scott: "One name I'm actually excited about. Harbaugh brings him from Baltimore and he's the starting tight end now. We saw what Dart did with Theo Johnson and his tight ends last year. I'll be looking at his props week in, week out."

Bearman: "I do like the Likely play — Harbaugh has used him before and knows what to do with him. And it's an easy thing for Dart to hit while you're still worried about the receivers."

📅 Coming Up

TOMORROW — BIG DAY

• AJ Hoffman debuts his Thursday slot + 32 in 32: Dallas Cowboys
• 🎬 THE BETTOR DAY FOOTBALL SHOW PREMIERES — 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT, live on YouTube and @better_day. Scott, Steve Fezzik & Joshua Nunn.
• NFL Preseason Week 1 begins

Also

• Bearman's NFL preview series continues at BearmanBets.com (newsletter 3x/week) — Joe DeLeone on college football Thursday, and Scott joins August 20th for the NFC North

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