MNF Recap / Week 4 Lookahead & MLB Postseason Preview

Scott Seidenberg and Michael Fiddle recap MNF and take an early look at the Week 4 lines. Plus the MLB Postseason and NHL regular season get underway tonight and we have previews of both.

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🏈 TURN BACK THE CLOCK: BEARS 27, EAGLES 7

Case Keenum — 38 years old, hadn't played in a game since 2023 — went 24 of 34 for 247 yards and two touchdowns. He was NOT SACKED ONCE.

The Bears won outright as 3.5-point dogs, and the game stayed under.

Fiddle: "I Was Aghast"

"Case Keenum looked like PRIME HALL OF FAME QUARTERBACK LEVEL.

A lot of that goes to Ben Johnson scheming the right plays, and it should. But he was also making the right throws — off his back foot, on time, in the right spot.

He had a play to Rome Odunze where Odunze bobbled it. Otherwise that was an absolute dime — a 10 out of 10 perfect throw in a perfect spot, reading the pressure, getting it off his back foot, lobbing it up appropriately, dropping it right in the pocket.

I don't know if we've ever seen Case Keenum play like that."

🔑 THE ANGLE WE ALL MISSED

Fiddle: "I was on the Eagles moneyline and got smacked in the mouth. But here's the thing I should have seen coming — and something to remember going forward.

A backup quarterback in HIS spot is the de facto coach. He's been training Caleb Williams. He's essentially an extension of the quarterbacks coach and of Ben Johnson. He's more of a coach who's being thrust into being a player for this game. He joked about it himself.

He's probably the MOST PREPARED BACKUP IN THE LEAGUE. He's the one studying the playbook, the calls, the reads — everything — to then help coach the starter.

There are a lot of backup quarterbacks who are younger guys who haven't been in the system. Mendoza behind Kirk Cousins is definitely not coming in with that level of preparation. Tua's backup, Cooper Rush — hasn't been around that long.

You probably can't point to another situation in the NFL where the backup quarterback is a 10-out-of-10 level of preparation despite not getting reps."

📌 The Filter Going Forward

When a backup gets thrust in, ask: is he a young guy learning the system, or is he the veteran who's been TEACHING it?

Scott's Miss

"I bet the Eagles early in the week thinking the line would move with Case Keenum and we'd get closing line value — which we did, it went to 4.5 and came back to 3.5. It didn't matter. I got the game wrong.

I thought the Eagles would get after him. The Bears' offensive line did an incredible job protecting him, and Ben Johnson called the right plays to get the ball out fast.

And when they said Tyson Bagent cleared concussion protocol, I thought for sure Bagent would play — Keenum starts, the Eagles sack him a couple times, and then Ben Johnson goes to the young athletic quarterback who can run a similar offense to Caleb. That never happened."

🚨 THE SIRIANNI TIMEOUT

What Happened

Jalen Hurts got hit hard on the sideline. He was fine — but the independent neurologist calls down and MANDATES the concussion protocol.

Into the blue tent

Scott: "How do you not call a timeout after second down and get Jalen Hurts back in the football game? I'll let first down pass — you've got Dalton in there, you're handing it to Saquon anyway. But second down?"

Fiddle: "We were all wondering on the side: is Sirianni going to call the timeout? If we're all thinking it at home, then it does become something you can question the coach on.

We also had the benefit of extra camera angles — Hurts opening the curtain, trying to look back in."

🏈 The Other First-Half Decision

Ben Johnson went for it on fourth down while up 7-0 instead of kicking.

Scott: "I tweeted it out, doing the whole Tony Romo thing — ooh, I don't know, Jim. I'd want to go up two possessions in a game where possessions are at a premium and I have a third-string quarterback playing for me."

Fiddle: "It was a little braggadocious. If the Eagles end up winning this game, we're all pointing to that decision instead."

Two first-half coaching decisions ended up being the major swing points — and then the Bears hit a bomb touchdown in the second half that "sucked all the momentum out."

🎯 THE READJUSTMENT QUESTION

Fiddle: "By the time the game kicked off and the line was back at 3.5, the market told us Keenum and Bagent are worth the SAME.

If there was a 4.8-point drop-off from Caleb to Bagent — what's the readjustment back UP for Keenum? Is it two points better than we were expecting?"

Scott: "At LEAST a point and a half."

⚠️ But Here's the Catch: Aaron Glenn

Scott: "Maybe you isolate the one performance and say, great game plan for one week. But now there's a whole week of film on this.

And Aaron Glenn KNOWS Ben Johnson's offense — they coached together in Detroit. Now Glenn says: I know all of Ben's tricks. I loved what he did with Case Keenum, that's very creative, Ben. And he schemes up the Jets defense to counteract everything.

Does Case Keenum have another week of altered game plan in him to surprise the Jets? I don't know."

🐏 THE WEEK 4 GAME WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR

Fiddle: "You told me before the season the one you circled was the Eagles against the Rams in week four — because the Rams go Australia, back to LA for the Giants, then Denver at altitude, then a cross-country trip to Philadelphia.

After seeing both of these teams drop complete eggs — are you still looking to back the Eagles? Or which team are you more looking forward to bet AGAINST?"

⭐ SCOTT'S PLAY: TEASE THE EAGLES FROM +2.5 TO +8.5

"This is going to be a fantastic game with two teams in a get-right situation, and I think it comes down to the last possession.

And if you told me the Rams were +2.5, I'd tease THEM up.

💰 WEEK 4 CLV SPOTS

⭐ FIDDLE'S #1: JAGUARS +2.5

"There are very cheap +2.5s in market right now. You can get +112, +114 on the exchanges, -112 to -115 on traditional books — basically even money.

I don't expect the Bengals to get out to a -3 favorite. So the asymmetry here of where the line could end up is good, in a line I don't think touches three.

A lot of people are throwing the Jaguars in their teasers, so you get the books doing some teaser protection shading — bringing this down to 2 or 1.5 at plus money so it can only be teased up to 7.5. I'd be grabbing the +2.5.

There's a large coaching advantage for Liam Coen over Zac Taylor. And the Jaguars are one of the HEALTHIEST teams in the NFL."

Scott's Supporting Case

"The Bengals were a nice story the first two weeks. Their defense taking a major step back against the Steelers may have exposed that we overreacted.

Look who they played: the 0-3 Buccaneers and the 0-3 Texans. Don't jump to conclusions about how good that defense looked when both opponents were winless."

⭐ SCOTT'S SPOT: PACKERS BLOW OUT TAMPA BAY

Baker Mayfield is out at least three weeks with a dislocated thumb.

"It's desperation for both teams, but especially for Matt LaFleur and the Packers. And I don't know how confident people are backing a team that got embarrassed on primetime national television Thursday night.

People might say the Bucs are home dogs and we just saw a backup quarterback sting a team. I'm not a believer in the Packers — but everyone talked so negatively about them last week. This is the spot where you back the ugly team, or the LESS ugly team."

Fiddle: "Totally agree — I'm just hoping the Packers injury report clears up. They're quite banged up. But I'd almost be willing to pay the 4.5 price with it being around 3.5. I'll come in late in market and accept the worst number in exchange for the INFORMATION."

⭐ FIDDLE'S OTHER CLV SPOT: CARDINALS -1.5 at the GIANTS

"I make this game Arizona -1.4. So a -118 moneyline pick type of line is the direction I'd go. I think the Cardinals might close as a 1.5-point favorite — this is a CLV spot I'm eyeing."

The Reasoning

"It centers around the Brian Burns situation. The Giants are losing so many key contributors. If they don't get pressure on Jacoby Brissett, and the Cardinals run with their two-headed backfield of Love and Algeier — Brissett WITH TIME is a totally serviceable quarterback.

It's very similar to Geno. Geno with time is a perfectly average, fine starting quarterback. Brissett's the same way. He makes fewer mistakes under pressure, he just throws the ball away a lot.

If they run the ball and open up time for Brissett, I think the Cardinals offense is going to be humming. And I don't trust the same on the other side with the way Jameis has looked."

🎓 THE WONG TEASER MASTERCLASS

The Board Is Loaded This Week

📚 Why the Price Got Worse — The Book Lesson

Fiddle: "People ask me all the time what books they should read about sports betting. Honestly, I don't recommend any of them — because by the time a book becomes so well known and well-read throughout the industry, THE EDGE IT TALKS ABOUT GETS PRICED OUT.

The Wong teaser is the perfect example. Stanford Wong publishes the math in Sharp Sports Betting and lays out the -120. It becomes so talked about industry-wide that two seasons ago the books got CRUSHED on these.

Then last season they said: we're making them -134, because we have all the math that says it should be around -128, -127 situationally. Some years -125 is even bad. But -120 ALWAYS seems to be good."

⭐ THE RULE: IF YOU HAVE -120, SPRAY EVERYTHING

"If you have the -120 option as an out, you should be using EVERY SINGLE Wong teaser leg in round robins.

People ask: which ones do you like? It doesn't matter. THE OPINION DOESN'T MATTER. Just every single one.

If you have three teams that fit the criteria, you do a teaser of A+B, B+C, and A+C. Decide your allocation — if you have three units, do them each for one unit. If you have six, do them each for half a unit. But just SPRAY THEM ALL.

There's about a SEVEN PERCENT EDGE on a teaser at -120 if you're moving through the three and through the seven. So just take the edge, bet them all, round robin them so you're doing every possible combination."

🎯 IF YOU ONLY HAVE -125: GET SITUATIONAL

"At -125, certain teasers fit the criteria better than others.

The Browns: home, +2.5, with a total LOWER THAN 40, teased to +8.5, as a home underdog in a DIVISIONAL game with a low total. That's a WAY better leg than some others.

The Jaguars are a teaser leg ON THE ROAD with a total NORTH OF 50. Technically that disqualifies it."

⚠️ THE DETAIL ALMOST NOBODY KNOWS

"Very few people realize this — I think the cutoff is 50 or 51. If the total is higher than 50 or 51, IT DOESN'T QUALIFY AS A WONG LEG, even if you're moving 2.5 to 8.5.

So at -125: do Cleveland, and find the others that fit the bill. Maybe the Giants +1.5 to +7.5 on game day as a home underdog with a low total. Maybe Seattle as a home favorite from -7.5 down to -1.5.

But if you have the -120, you're spraying everything."

⚾ MLB POSTSEASON BEGINS

Scott Seidenberg and Jake Hasan preview the MLB Postseason with Best Bets for Tuesdays and beyond!

Listen to our MLB Postseason Preview Pod w/Jake Hasan

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🏆 WORLD SERIES FUTURES

⭐ JAKE: ONLY THREE TEAMS CAN WIN IT

"I've been saying this for a couple weeks. There are three teams that can win the World Series as things stand right now: the DODGERS, the RAYS, and the RED SOX.

The Dodgers are the only team in the National League that I like."

🍺 The Brewers Problem

"We're going to do this thing with the Brewers again, where everybody says great regular season team, they're finally ready.

They don't have that STAR in the lineup. They don't have the Aaron Judge, they don't have the Pete Crow-Armstrong, they don't have the Shohei Ohtani. They have a lot of good, solid guys — but they don't have THE GUY. That's always going to be a problem for me with this Brewers team."

💰 THE STRATEGY: BET THE EXACTA, NOT THE FUTURE

Jake: "I've only been doing exactas — Dodgers over Rays, Dodgers over Red Sox. I think that's the best way to attack this."

📊 THE PRICE COMPARISON

Instead of taking the Dodgers at +230:

⚾ PHILLIES AT BRAVES

Braves -200 in game one. Chris Sale on the mound. No announced Phillies starter at recording.

🎯 THE ROTATION MANIPULATION

The theory: Philadelphia is punting game one to set up games two and three.

Scott's framing: "Would you rather have only ONE pitcher going on short rest than TWO pitchers going on short rest?"

Jake: Don't Hate It

"If you think you're going to lose the Sale game anyway, and maybe you could win a Sánchez-versus-Sale matchup — a 2-1 game, a 1-0 game — I think this is the right way to think about it.

Because the Braves, and this is the reason I don't like them overall: that rotation BEHIND Sale. It's basically me and you throwing for these guys. Grant Holmes in game two, Bryse Wilson — really? That's what we're going to do?

The Phillies have been playing very, very terrible baseball lately. They hung on barely to that last wild card spot. But I think this is the right way for them to do it."

⭐ THE PLAY: WAIT, THEN BUY THE SERIES

Jake: "I'm going to wait for after game one, expecting the Braves to win that Chris Sale start — and then circle back on the Phillies for the SERIES PRICE.

I'm going to like the Sánchez game regardless. And then you're in a do-or-die coin flip game three with Zack Wheeler, who's been fantastic this year for the most part."

⚾ WHITE SOX AT ASTROS

Astros -134 in game one. No announced starters for either team.

⭐ JAKE: BET THE WHITE SOX — IN EVERY GAME

"I'm going to bet the White Sox in game one, because these teams are way more similar than the price indicates — especially with both of them waiting to announce a starting pitcher.

I can't believe the White Sox might go with an OPENER. It seems like maybe Hagen Smith for an inning and then Erick Fedde for the bulk. We'll see how that goes.

I'm probably going to bet the White Sox in EVERY game, assuming they're going to be dogs in every game."

🅰️ On the Astros

"They snuck in. It was the meme of the AL West: a bunch of idiots fighting in a parking lot, the worst fight I've ever seen in my life. And the Astros just stood there and waltzed in, backdoored their way in.

The White Sox kind of blew that division at the end — credit to them for making the postseason. But I don't like this Astros team at all."

⚾ YANKEES vs RED SOX

Yankees -156. Cam Schlittler vs Payton Tolle. Total: 6.5.

⚖️ THE AARON JUDGE SITUATION

He took batting practice Monday. The status is still unclear.

Jake: "The market price at -156 seems to tell you the market EXPECTS Judge to play. But this has been weird for a week.

You ask Aaron Boone, Boone says he's not playing. You ask Aaron Judge, Judge says no, I'm playing, what the hell are you talking about? Can we get some clarity?

It looks like he's tracking to play. But even with Judge in the lineup — that's a BANGED UP Aaron Judge. What is that going to look like? Can you really expect him to be at the height of his powers, the captain, the guy who carries you across the finish line? I don't really believe that."

⭐ JAKE LIKES THE RED SOX

"Payton Tolle has been great. He's somebody I like to spin things ahead — Payton Tolle is going to be on my card for 2027 Cy Young. He has been AWESOME, a perfect complement to Sonny Gray.

I get it, it's Cam Schlittler on the other side — the guy who's going to win AL Cy Young. But ever since that run where they made themselves a contending team again after firing Alex Cora, the Red Sox have been one of the best teams in baseball."

⚾ CUBS AT PADRES

Padres -126 in game one. Michael King on the mound. No announced Cubs starter.

🎣 THE ANNUAL PADRES TRAP

Jake: "I pissed off a lot of people over the weekend saying I don't like the Padres.

We're going to do this again with this team. Every year for the last five years we've done this — they get in, they're hot at the end, they're the SEXY team. Everyone wants to talk about Tatís, Machado, Jackson Merrill. This is a team with the talent to keep up with the Dodgers.

And then they just FALL ON THEIR FACE every time. I don't know why everybody thinks this time is going to be any different."

⭐ THE PLAY: CUBS TO WIN THE SERIES (not game one)

"Game one with no announced starter for them — I'm going to stay away from the game. But I like the Cubs in the SERIES.

Both teams have their warts, especially on the pitching side. At the end of the day I'm going to trust the NL MVP and PCA to drag his team across the finish line.

And Alex Bregman is back — Bregman wearing the MASK, hitting two home runs in his first game back with a FACE FRACTURE. I like this Cubs team for the series."

📊 WHO'S HOT AND WHO'S NOT: SEPTEMBER

Offense (wRC+)

"Both the Red Sox and Phillies lineups are kind of limping into the postseason."

Team ERA

Expected (xFIP)

🔍 JAKE'S READ ON THE SPLIT

"The White Sox number makes sense — that's been their big bugaboo all year.

What jumps out is the RED SOX disparity between the pitching and the hitting. But that's been their calling card. We know they can get really hot at the plate — we saw it on that incredible run when they won a million games in a row in the middle of the season.

But the PITCHING has been the staple. Payton Tolle. Sonny Gray has had one of the best seasons of his career after he was exiled from St. Louis. Even Ranger Suárez is a solid three and has been very solid.

That's part of why I like the Red Sox as one of those three teams that can win the World Series — they have that star upside, especially on the pitching side.

And PITCHING got the Red Sox their World Series in 2018. Let's not forget Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi that year. I still like this Red Sox team even with the lack of offense over the last month. They can turn it on."

Follow Jake @TheJakeHassan on Twitter

🏒 THE PUCK DROPS TONIGHT

The 2026 NHL Season gets underway tonight. Kevin Rogers and Scott Seidenberg recorded an NHL preview podcast talking futures bets and more!

Listen to our NHL Preview Pod w/Kevin Rogers

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🏒 THE NHL HQ IS LIVE

Our NHL headquarters is LIVE on BettorDay.com and in the Bettor Day mobile app

What's In It

The matchup view: click any game for a full matchup card — goals for and against per game, power play and penalty kill percentage, 5v5 shot attempt share, 5v5 shots on goal share, and shots on goal for and allowed per game.

Shots on goal props: player hit rates compared to what their opponent allows over the course of a season.

⭐ The First Period Database

Everything you need to bet NHL first periods:

• Straight up records
• Over/under records
• Both teams to score records
• Goal in the first 10 records (your GIFT bets)
• Goalie records — track every goalie's first period performance, split by home and away, with first period goals against average and first period save percentage

🎯 KEVIN'S FIRST PERIOD STRATEGY

Why First Periods

"I like first period more because you only have forty minutes to worry about of real time. Obviously it's a twenty minute period, but it's only a forty-minute bet. You don't have to worry about shootouts and things like that, which can be just random at the end of the day."

⭐ THE OVERS RULE: WAIT TWO OR THREE MINUTES

"If you like overs in an NHL game — DON'T LAY -150. Wait two or three minutes. Let that number drop.

And the same for a first period. If you look back at it, the majority of the time when games go over, they score four, five, six minutes into the first period. THEY DON'T SCORE 30 SECONDS IN. That's very rare.

So if you like an UNDER, take it before the game — that's your best price. But if you're taking an OVER and you have a live betting app, wait two or three minutes and you'll see that number keep dropping.

You go from -150 to maybe -130, -125. Or from -125 to -110. Let this thing play out, because they're not going to score that fast in every single game."

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