Quarterback Injuries & Market Reactions

Scott Seidenberg and Michael Fiddle talk about the QB injury bug in the NFL and how the betting market reacts or over-reacts.

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🏈 RAMS 28, GIANTS 6 — NEVER IN DOUBT

And another quarterback goes down: Jaxson Dart left after ONE series.

Scott: "Everyone thought the Giants were going to win the Super Bowl after week one against Dallas. The Rams looked bad against the 49ers in Australia. But as we saw with the 49ers on Sunday — no ill effects returning from Australia. And the Rams didn't look like they felt any either."

Fiddle: Still Not Buying the Rams

"Everyone's going to make a bigger deal out of that trip and the results regardless of what happened — we were going to post the results to fit the narrative we created.

I said here last week the Rams were pretty overrated in market. I still feel that way despite this game — because the Giants were a little too hot in week one against a bad Cowboys team.

Without Dart, with Malik Nabers banging up his shoulder and playing through it — this team is not the juggernaut we thought. Not necessarily last-to-first in the division. Not necessarily last year's Patriots on what should be an easy schedule the rest of the way, like many people forecasted."

🎯 THIS WEEK'S THEME: PRICING THE QUARTERBACK INJURIES

The Framework: Ben Fawkes Backup QB Rankings

Fiddle's boss at Yahoo Sports, Ben Fawkes, publishes the ATS difference between every team's starter and backup before the season.

How It's Built

"He talks to ELEVEN different oddsmakers individually — get me your ATS difference between Josh Allen and Kyle Allen, or Patrick Mahomes and Justin Fields. He compiles all eleven data points into a consensus, then sends it BACK to the oddsmakers.

It's a little quid pro quo — a win-win. They learn we might be way too far off, overrating Mahomes versus Fields. So when the situation pops up, they don't come out with an error line — or they shade half a point where they'd have been a full point and a half off market, and still take action on what they think is a good number."

Why It's Extra Valuable Right Now

"Especially early in the season, not much could have possibly changed — maybe a maximum of one point from the preseason ratings. We could say Drew Lock is a little better than expected relative to Darnold. Maybe the gap between Wentz and Kyler should be a little closer. Maybe Caleb to Bagent goes a little further the other way. But it's a general framework."

🗽 GIANTS vs TITANS — BET THE REOPEN

The line history:

(On the Twitter lip-reading video of the trainer apparently telling Harbaugh "four to six weeks": "We are not making any judgments based off a lip reading video. We'll wait for the official word.")

First: Why the Pre-MNF Move Actually Made Sense

Yesterday Scott and Mackenzie couldn't understand the -5.5 to -6.5 move. Fiddle explains it:

"Despite the 24-20 score, so much of that came on a near pick six — call it a 96-yard interception return — to get the Titans down to the goal line. Two of their scores came on Cam Ward rushes, and one was completely generated by the defense. Otherwise that offense looked completely lackluster.

And they struggled to stop the ground game — even with Saquon out, Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley came in and ran. The matchup style indicated the Giants might be a tough fit. The box score didn't tell the full story. A lot of self-inflicted Eagles wounds — par for the course with the Eagles."

Fiddle's Reopen Prediction

Ben Fawkes Dart-to-Jameis Winston gap: 2.45 points.

"Call it 2.5. Winston didn't look great; Dart looked fantastic last week. We're approaching an expensive Giants -3, or maybe -3.5 at the reopen. And since we're fans of Fezzik — let's call it 3.25, the king of the decimal odds."

💡 THE PREDICTION MARKET ALPHA

Fiddle: "Prediction market odds can't close. There's no house that can close them. If someone is market making and providing liquidity, it stays available. It's essentially just bad prices on every week four line right now — and if you want to fill a bad price, they'll take your money.

So while all the books are offline, we can see Kalshi hanging -137 on the Giants and Polymarket at -139. Throw that into a spread-to-moneyline conversion and it's about -2.5, even -3. That's where I expect it to reopen."

Scott: "A -2.5 is right around -140 to -142 on the moneyline."

⭐ THE PLAY: GIANTS WHEN IT REOPENS (-3 or -3.5)

Scott: "If it's three or three and a half, the play is the New York Giants. There's a difference between what we saw last night from Winston and what we could see Sunday with a full week knowing he's the starter.

When backup quarterbacks get thrown in off an injury, the entire game plan gets disrupted. The skill sets are different — Winston's not running like Dart. There are no read options or RPO concepts with Winston. What we saw was ugly. We'll see a different Giants team and a different Jameis Winston with a full week of prep."

Fiddle: "Me too. It's one thing to be thrust in against a Rams defense without preparation time with the ones."

⚠️ THE CAVEAT: BRIAN BURNS

"Burns also got injured on one of the last defensive plays of the game. He's probably one of their defensive captains, if not one of their best players. If he's out, does that require another half point to 0.75 against the spread? I'd probably say yes. Check on Burns AND Dart news before you bet."

🦅 FALCONS AT PACKERS (Thursday) — PRICED RIGHT

Michael Penix makes his season debut. The Cooper Rush / Jack Strand saga is over.

Scott: "The look-aheads came out before the injuries, so they were pricing in Penix or Tua. If it were still Cooper Rush, it'd probably be Packers -9.5, or at least -8.5."

Fiddle: No Play

"I think this is pretty bang on. Using last week's market ratings going into Sunday, I'd have had Packers -7.7. Green Bay pushed against the Jets — call it neutral. The Falcons did NOT play out neutral, so there'd have been a downgrade on the Rush/Strand component — up to 8.5, 9, maybe 9.5. Upgrade that with Penix back in.

I think the market already knew Penix was coming back. And I actually played the Panthers late last week — right before the Friday announcement that Rush would start — thinking: wait, Atlanta has a short week Thursday game in week three. Penix is close. Might as well give him three or four extra days to prepare. That was a good one for me."

🏆 THE SURVIVOR NOTE

Fiddle: "Green Bay will be the second biggest favorite on the week three slate, so people will naturally gravitate there. I will not be doing that. I actually hope Green Bay goes down in flames Thursday.

The Packers play on Christmas. KC — the other clear option this week — plays on Thanksgiving. So either way you're burning a team that's on a holiday slate. I'm using KC against Miami this week, because they play Buffalo on the holiday and I won't want KC in that spot."

Scott: "It's always difficult taking a Thursday game — you have to feel really strong about it. It's nice to sit in the clubhouse Sunday and watch everybody sweat. But with so much movement in the market, you almost just wait until the Saturday deadline."

🏈 SEAHAWKS AT COMMANDERS — THE ONE FIDDLE BET

Drew Lock vs Marcus Mariota.

The Math

Ben Fawkes Darnold-to-Lock gap: 4.5 points.

"And that's exactly what we saw last week. The Seahawks were -8.5, -9.5 on the look-ahead versus Arizona and closed -4 — a 4.5-point downgrade following the transition, plus about a point upgrade for the Cardinals after they beat the Chargers. Right on key with the ratings.

We already knew Lock was starting here. So the new move is the Jayden Daniels-to-Mariota gap — a flat five points. Which I also agree with."

⭐ The Position

"This was a cue for me. I grabbed Seahawks -6 IMMEDIATELY on the reopen.

A juiced -6.5 is probably where I stay off. Moving through the six onto the seven — those are key numbers, so the move should be a little LESS than five points.

And the travel spot: Seattle heading to the East Coast for a 1 PM start. Of all the travel situations, the West Coast team coming east for a one o'clock game is the one I still weight as somewhat meaningful — maybe half a point beyond what the market prices in. I think the market prices rest and travel adjustments almost perfectly otherwise.

So six and a half is actually right. If it hits six again and sees resistance — take the Seahawks -6."

🐻 EAGLES AT BEARS (Monday night)

Caleb Williams: hamstring, week to week. Tyson Bagent starts.

Ben Fawkes Caleb-to-Bagent gap: 4.84 points.

Scott: The Gap Is Inflated

"Whatever that number is, I think it's inflated. Look at Caleb's numbers last year — one of the worst completion percentages in the NFL. What makes him special is avoiding sacks and extending plays. Another quarterback might not extend plays like him — but his analytical profile is not great.

So I don't necessarily agree the Bears offense suffers tremendously. That said — I'm not betting the Bears in this spot."

Fiddle: The Trench Mismatch Says Philly

"It's a five-point move, but it moves THROUGH ZERO, which is almost nothing in the NFL — so it's closer to four and a half, or four. Relatively fair — but three is very important, so weight it a little more. It's moved through the three onto the 3.5 at even money.

Scott, you're the trench report guy. The Eagles are so high in their defensive line ratings. Caleb's escape ability probably looms large in this specific matchup. I'd think Bagent might just get CRUSHED by the Jalen Carters, etc.

And the Eagles might have the best trio of cornerbacks in the league — Quinyon Mitchell, Riq Woolen from Seattle this offseason, and Cooper DeJean in the slot. They're so good at going man coverage on the outside and then bringing pressure. Against Bagent that might be a nightmare waiting. Matchup-wise, I'd go a little further than the number and want the Eagles."

Scott: "I'm with you on that."

🟣 VIKINGS AT BUCCANEERS — THE WEIRD ONE

Kyler Murray returns vs the 0-2 Bucs

The Market Faded the Kyler News

Fiddle: "This one confuses me the most — and it's kind of the funniest. As soon as Kyler was announced in, the first movement in market was Tampa Bay +2.5 to +1.5. A fade on the news.

Normally you expect the mouth breathers, the screen clickers — my god, Kyler's in, let me click Vikings. I'll wait for the day Caleb is announced back and just click Bears no matter what, because it's not fully priced in.

But I think the open at Vikings -2.5 was completely priced for Kyler — we got word he was close. It's very rare for a QB to miss two games with a concussion unless there's a deep history. Even though it looked very scary on impact, everyone knew Kyler was going to play.

And Wentz's success rates were surprisingly positive through two games — weather brought one game's stats down naturally, but I'd say Wentz overperformed. No plays for me yet — but it's odd that as soon as Kyler was ruled in, market hit Tampa."

Scott's Worry About Tampa

"The turnover ability of Baker Mayfield and this Tampa Bay team early on in the season. Now you've got Brian Flores scheming up a blitz package — and that Tampa offensive line has not been able to protect him. I absolutely have concerns.

I'm sitting on a Vikings +500 division ticket and a +650 Kyler Murray Comeback Player of the Year ticket. Maybe this is the double comeback — back from the injury last year, back from the concussion this year. The Vikings win the division and Kyler wins the award. That's what I'm rooting for."

⭐ FIDDLE'S WEEK 3 LOOK-AHEAD CLV PLAY

BENGALS/STEELERS UNDER 42.5

"If I'm giving out one look-ahead line that I think closes with CLV for week three, it's this one.

Steelers offense: ABYSMAL. Steelers defense: doing everything for them. Bengals defense: improved."

🏀 FIDDLE'S OTHER PLAY

WNBA (final week of the regular season, seeding on the line):

Follow Fiddle on X: @FiddlesPicks — live streams and the NBA Betting with Fiddle podcast. (His live stream schedule will be a little random this week.)

📐 THE NFL TEASER TRICK

Here's a helpful hint if you tease NFL: if you have an 8.5 at -115, throwing it into a teaser WIPES OUT the vig component. You'll just get standard house vig on teasers. So you can take an 8.5 at -115 on both sides and still pay standard teaser odds in a lot of situations."

📅 Coming Up

• Tomorrow: David Bearman
• Thursday: Brandon Kravitz & the BettorDay Football Show LIVE at 2 PM ET