Originating Numbers, NFL Best Bet & 32 in 32: New York Jets

Scott Seidenberg and Michael Fiddle react to the market movement with the Los Angeles Rams, give out an NFL Best Bet and talk about originating numbers. Plus our 32 in 32 preview of the New York Jets, with a surprising Best Bet.

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🏈 THE RAMS MARKET: WHO ACTUALLY MOVED?

Fiddle Has Been Low All Offseason

Fiddle: "There's a floor-ceiling conversation that needs to be had. We got pretty much a CEILING performance from a lot of their players last year. Puka was a ceiling player. Davante Adams had a ceiling touchdown season. Stafford played all 17 games and won MVP. What's the ceiling beyond that?

Their priors coming into this year already baked in the ceiling — and the drop to the floor is much greater than the market is currently pricing."

🔍 THE MARKET LESSON

Scott's question: "If the Rams shorten to +500, why didn't the Bills go from +1000 to +1100? If we're giving the Rams a higher percentage, why aren't we downgrading everyone else?"

Fiddle checked it live:

Fiddle: "Literally a zero reaction from the market on the other teams in the division. Sometimes when you see those moves, the Chiefs aren't getting a better number because the Rams shortened. It's just making the whole generic hold worse across the entire market. Especially on prediction markets, where you can buy yes and no — it's only changing the yes/no price of that team and not much else."

🎯 THE DPOY MARKET: WHERE'S THE BUY POINT?

Aaron Donald moved from 100/1 to 45/1 overnight — with Myles Garrett the +400 favorite.

Fiddle: "Donald's odds are already shorter than Patrick Surtain, who actually WON this award two years ago. I think Donald plays a reduced snap count — maybe 50% week to week — at least for the first half of the season.

And it's like wide receivers: bringing in another great one makes Puka's life easier, but it doesn't INCREASE Puka's stats. You find the condensed stat sets when one player has the job to himself.

So if Garrett is the odds-on leading candidate, I'm asking: when is the buy point on someone making an early-season splash? Will Anderson, Aidan Hutchinson, Jalen Carter, Danielle Hunter, TJ Watt — I'll be waiting to jump in early."

⭐ THE NAME TO WATCH: TREY HENDRICKSON (30/1)

The stat Fiddle heard: "Under Jesse Minter, EVERY single player — has seen their pressure rate and pressure success go UP in his system.

So maybe it's Trey Hendrickson. He's 30/1 now. Two games in, he's got four sacks, and you buy then — because Myles Garrett is still the odds-on favorite."

⭐ BEST BET OF THE SHOW: EAGLES +3 (WEEK 4)

Rams at Eagles — Sunday, October 4th

The line shopping:

Scott: "Available at one book. Go get it ASAP. I bet it and it moved from -110 to -115"

The Handicap: The Mileage Catches Up

On the Melbourne trip: McVay confirmed the Rams travel as late as possible, play, and immediately fly home to protect body clocks — unlike the 49ers, who stay for days. (Fiddle: "They sent people to Australia to test body clocks. That's an absolute edge — for week one.") They did the same in London and won 35-7.

Why not fade them in Denver? "That was my first instinct — but they get the mini-bye before it, plenty of time to acclimate. And short weeks in Denver haven't actually been that terrible historically."

📊 THE STAT

Since 2021 (the 3-game preseason / 17-game season era), teams playing at Denver and then going ON THE ROAD AGAIN the following week:

4-10 straight up. 4-9-1 against the spread.

Scott: "At some point the mileage catches up to you. This is where it catches up."

📐 THE HALF-POINT LESSON

Fiddle: "Paying -115 to GET the three is fine. Memorize this for the season: the line move on or off a half point from 2.5 to 3, or 3 to 3.5, is worth 19 CENTS. That same half point from 1.5 to 2 is worth about five and a half cents.

That one half point is more than THREE TIMES as valuable as the move elsewhere. So -115 to make sure you get the three — not a big deal when you're getting the good number."

🧮 THE NUMBERS BACK IT UP

Fiddle: "I'm even a shade closer toward the adjustment DOWN off the three — and that's before layering on the rest/travel manual adjustment."

🔑 AND THE TRENCH REPORT

Scott: "In my Trench Report, the Rams are number one — even before the Aaron Donald news. You know who's number TWO? The Philadelphia Eagles.

If there's one team that can mitigate that pass rush, it's the team I currently have as the NUMBER ONE PASS BLOCKING UNIT in the NFL."

🏈 32 IN 32: NEW YORK JETS

⭐ THE PLAY: OVER 5.5 WINS (-120)

Scott: "I can't believe I'm saying this. Yesterday I gave out the Dolphins for fewest wins — if I'm giving the Jets two wins over Miami, can we find four more? They play the Raiders. They play Arizona. They play Tennessee in week one, and Cam Ward and the Titans have not looked good in the preseason. Green Bay in week two could be without Josh Jacobs again. Over 5.5 is the best bet for the Jets."

Fiddle: "100% true. A hundred percent true."

His credibility note: "Let me caveat — I gave out the Bears under and the Panthers under on this show. I'm not one of those over bozos everywhere. Jets over is a no-brainer to me."

The Variance Argument

Fiddle: "So much of the Jets talk this offseason is stats that are meaningless year over year — the least sticky, total variance stuff.

The one everyone has on repeat: they didn't get a single interception last year. Okay — that is variance DEFINED.That's the lowest end of potential variance you could possibly have. They had something like four forced turnovers all season. They might do that in a SINGLE WEEK this year.

It's not that I'm super high on the Jets defense — it's that three fumbles bounce your way or you tip two picks in a game. They might get 50%+ of last year's total in one game."

The Red Zone Fix

Fiddle: "The other thing they were horrible at — worst or second worst in the league at converting red zone trips into touchdowns. Once they got there, which wasn't frequent, they had a bad time punching it in.

Quarterback play was a big reason and that should improve. The offensive line is improved. Skill players should be better coming in healthy with a full training camp. They have a scat back and a power back. With Geno, Breece, Braelon, Garrett Wilson, an improved line, and Mason Taylor in year two — the red zone stuff should be vastly improved."

Plus: the fourth easiest schedule against projected win totals.

⭐ THE BETTER VEHICLE: AARON GLENN, COACH OF THE YEAR

Fiddle (crediting others): "Smart people have pointed out that Aaron Glenn's Coach of the Year odds are way out of whack compared to the Jets' ceiling outcome prices.

If you want Jets 10+ wins, you're way better off diverting that into Aaron Glenn Coach of the Year — or at least splitting 50/50. The Coach of the Year market depends more on what other teams do, while the Jets control their own fate to get to ten wins. But if you believe in the ceiling outcome, that's the highest-ceiling way to play it.

And everyone's clamoring that he might be the first coach FIRED. I don't think that's true — I'd zig where they're zagging."

Scott: "If the Jets make the playoffs, Aaron Glenn is a finalist."

Week 1: Jets at Titans

Fiddle: "I played into the three. I'd still recommend the 2.5 AND the moneyline. I plan to add more moneyline."

Scott: "Two and a half up to eight and a half is a major teaser candidate if you can find a dance partner — and there are quite a few on this week one schedule."

🎓 POWER RATINGS: HOW TO ORIGINATE YOUR OWN NUMBER

From Fiddle's new episode with Ed Feng of thepowerrank.com — on the NBA Betting with Fiddle feed.

The Reality Check

Fiddle: "A lot of people have aspirations of 'I want to build a model that does X, Y, and Z.' It is so hard. I can promise you right now — you're not going to build a model on September 1st that beats the NFL this year. There's just no way."

✅ What You CAN Do

1. Blend existing ratings. "Find five different rating systems and weight them 20% each. Or 40% Fezzik and 20/20/20 across three others — and you've created your own weighted power rankings as a starting tool for origination."

(They also walked through Kalshi's new market ratings — the methodology, the strengths, the weaknesses, the flaws, and how to mitigate them.)

2. Layer in matchup tendencies. "This team has the highest rushing success rate and it's going against the worst run defense in the league. That's a matchup advantage that projects louder than a rating system that matches everyone against a neutral, average team."

3. Master the injury report. "If you study injury reporting data really closely, it's still one of your biggest edges in sports betting."

⚠️ THE INJURY EDGE CAVEAT

Fiddle: "You have to know what the market has already PRICED. If Mahomes is a game-time decision but tells the media Thursday 'I'm planning to go and I expect to go' — he might be 95% priced in as playing. So 'I found an edge that Mahomes is playing' isn't a real edge.

The real spots are the gray areas. Brock Purdy is truly questionable — he's worth 3.5 points over Mac Jones, he says 'I'm going to try but I'm not sure,' he's going through warmups. The line is hanging in no man's land and it's going to move heavily.

And you don't need to be right every time. Some of these line moves are so big on injury news that you only need to be right on 60-70% of them to have long-term positive EV."

📅 Coming Up

Tomorrow

• David Bearman + 32 in 32 continues
• College football Week 1 picks for Thursday's games — a couple have already gone out to Premium, more coming all week
• The college football Trench Report gets updated

The Trench Report will also be adjusted before NFL Week 1.

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