Missed Tackles & Market Reactions

Scott Seidenberg and Michael Fiddle recap the Chiefs win over the Broncos on Monday Night Football and the market reactions to week 1 games. Plus some NFL Week 2 trends.

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🏈 CHIEFS 31, BRONCOS 10 — AND WE BOTH GOT CRUSHED

Kenneth Walker: 23 carries, 173 yards, TD. Kansas City embarrassed Denver at Arrowhead.

The Damage Report

Scott: "I had a lot invested on the Broncos +3 — bet over a month ago — plus a Broncos teaser from 2.5 to 8.5. Neither came through."

Fiddle: "Misery loves company. This summer, this was the first game I recognized as one that would gain CLV. As soon as the schedule came out, I was the first one on the betting exchanges OFFERING liquidity for Broncos +3. I got filled quite a bit for as long as the line stayed there — I was the one being bet against and taking fill. A very big position for me. I'm lucky my entire order didn't fill before it moved to 2.5 and then 2."

(The one salvage: Scott live-bet Dobbins over 22.5 rushing at the half after Payton said they needed to run it — cashed on the first drive of the third quarter — and a live under 47.5 after the first quarter.)

🚨 THE STATISTICAL ANOMALY

Patrick Mahomes Did Not Complete a Single Pass of More Than SIX AIR YARDS

Scott: "If I told you Mahomes had a 4.24 aDOT, didn't complete a pass more than six air yards, and had a passing EPA per play of NEGATIVE 0.14 — did they win by 21?"

Fiddle: "I'd tell you 31-10 Broncos."

⚠️ THE MARKET IS GOING TO OVERREACT TO KANSAS CITY

Scott: "This was not a dominating Chiefs performance. This was a pathetic Broncos performance. The Chiefs futures, the Super Bowl market — it's going to over-inflate Kansas City when in reality it was just as much, if not more, Denver GIVING them this game."

⭐ THE PLAY: COLTS +7 (or 7.5?) (Sunday night)

The line: Chiefs -6.5 at recording — and the look-ahead was also -6.5.

Scott: "I think by the time you're listening to this, that line is seven — maybe 7.5 by kickoff Sunday night. And I will be betting the Indianapolis Colts."

Fiddle's caution: "I tend to agree, but be a little wary — the Chiefs at Arrowhead consistently take action. I was very surprised they didn't yesterday. The Colts weren't too impressive either. But that Mahomes stat is cause for concern — and the Colts secondary is one of the stronger units on their defense."

📉 THE BRONCOS TAPE: THREE FAILURES

1. THE MISSED TACKLES — AN NFL RECORD

Per Next Gen Stats: Denver missed 28 tackles, allowing 247 yards after missed tackles — the most by any defense in a game since 2018. Eight different defenders missed multiple tackles.

Fiddle: "The Rashee Rice play — two defenders bounce into him and neither even tries to use their ARMS. They just shoulder-bump him. You're inside the 10-yard line. You have to wrap the guy up."

Scott: "Aikman and Buck talked about Andy Reid having the Chiefs in full pads five or six days in a row, and Harbaugh running a physical camp with the Giants. The Broncos looked like a team that did not hit or tackle in training camp. Sean Payton is supposed to run a hard camp — these misses were inexcusable at the NFL level."

2. THEY ABANDONED THE RUN — THEIR BIGGEST STRENGTH

The Trench Report has Denver as the THIRD best O-line/D-line combo in the NFL and THIRD in run blocking.

They ran it roughly 11-12 times before kneel-downs. The pass rate: 68.1%.

For Context

Fiddle: "Outside the Dobbins breakaway, they were averaging about 4.5 yards a carry. This is strength on strength — you need to see if your strength works. Going away from the run that quickly seems like a rookie mistake from Davis Webb."

3. BO NIX NEVER RAN

Scott: "They didn't design any rollouts, no read option plays. He tried to run on the first play, didn't get positive yards, and that was it. He's fine — everyone talked about how good he looked in the preseason."

Fiddle: "He said himself he reached his max speed as a runner two weeks ago — there was a pregame piece about him hitting the fastest speed he's ever run in his life, in training camp."

(The mental errors weren't all on the coordinator either: Jaylen Waddle dropped a massive third-down conversion and Pat Bryant dropped one he should have had.)

🎙️ THE PLAY-CALLING DEBATE

Scott: "Davis Webb clearly should not be calling plays. And Sean Payton in his halftime interview was asked how it feels not calling plays and said 'ask me at the end of the game.' He's going to take back play-calling responsibilities."

Fiddle disagrees: "I think Webb remains the play caller for quite a few more weeks. I don't think it's a quick trigger. It felt like Payton wanted to pull it back at the start of the second half — but then he didn't, and once it got out of hand there was no reason to."

📊 THE UPDATED MARKETS

Super Bowl (FanDuel)

MVP

⚠️ FIDDLE'S BIGGEST MARKET OVERREACTION: THE RAMS AREN'T DOWN ENOUGH

Fiddle: "I don't think we've downgraded the Rams enough — only from 5/1 to 6.5/1. To still power rank them as the clear number one team, even without Myles Garrett for the next four weeks?

With the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals all 1-0 and the Rams a full game back of EVERYONE in the division, that's a very difficult path. Their offense, their schedule, their division. I've had Rams to miss the playoffs since before the season.

The overreaction is the Rams not being all the way back to +800, +850 — with the Bills and maybe the Ravens slightly ahead of them. We'll be doing this show in a few weeks and the Rams will be hovering around FIFTH in the futures market."

🎯 WEEK 2 DOGS: THE FULL BREAKDOWN

Since the start of 2021, Week 2 underdogs are 44-30-4 ATS — 59.5%.

The Splits That Matter

The takeaway: the edge is in SAME-RECORD matchups.

The Qualifying Games

❌ LIONS AT BILLS: NO INTEREST IN THE DOG

Fiddle: "They lost another offensive lineman against the Saints. This is a terrible spot if you believe in the schedule components. I think the Lions are overrated in market and the Bills are still slightly underrated. I have more trust in the Bills defense than market does and less faith in the Lions offense.

I don't see how the Lions stop Buffalo at home."

⭐ THE STRUCTURE PLAY: BUFFALO ALTS

Scott: "Five is a DEAD number. It's not going to land on five. So laying -4.5 does nothing for you, even at a reduced price. I'd much rather take Bills -6.5 at +128 — or -5.5 at +106. Give me the alt line."

(Fiddle pulled it live: games have landed on exactly five in 5% of games over the last three seasons.)

And the Prop

Fiddle: "Dalton Kincaid receiving props are going to be very interesting — he's the one who stretches over the middle. If Detroit is missing two of their safeties on those deep shots, I think he reaps the biggest rewards going low or deep post over the middle."

⭐ THE GAME OF THE WEEK: VIKINGS AT BEARS (-5.5)

Fiddle: Vikings Are the Sharp Side

"So much of that Bears offense is based on TIMING — and you are completely thrown off by the complex blitzing schemes of that Vikings defense. That's the angle that disrupts them.

And this Bears defense is a sieve. They have more holes than Swiss cheese.

I don't think the biggest gap is between Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray. We just saw Wentz put up points against the Packers defense — and I think the Packers defense long term is going to be way more formidable than the Bears defense. You might get some CLV backing the Vikings."

🧠 SCOTT'S FLORES ANGLE: THE ANTI-BLITZ

"Brian Flores has mentally F'd with Caleb Williams."

The setup: Flores has a famously high blitz rate — fully on display last week against Green Bay.

The history that matters:

Week 1, 2025 — Vikings 27, Bears 24: Flores did NOT blitz. He played back in coverage and gave up the underneath. Caleb went 21/35 for 210 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT — OVER his completions, UNDER his passing yards. (A same game parlay Scott gave out that cashed.)

The rematch: Flores blitzed him all night long.

The second meeting last year: 16/32 for 193 yards, no touchdowns.

Caleb Williams is on record calling Brian Flores "the king of the cover zero."

Scott: "He went UNDER his passing yards in BOTH games against Flores last year. After the blitz rate we saw last week, do not be surprised if this game is drop coverage and very minimal blitzing. He dared Caleb Williams to beat him without the blitz — and Caleb couldn't do it."

The Prop to Hunt

Fiddle: "Caleb Williams interception props?" — not posted yet at recording. "The Bears had one of those incredibly lucky full-season turnover numbers — Caleb threw a lot of interception-worthy balls that were not picked off. Get some top-down perspective, see where the sharper books price it. That's a dart throw. Pun intended."

⭐ FIDDLE'S FAVORITE BET OF WEEK 2: BROWNS/BUCS OVER 40.5

Fiddle: "I don't think these week one overs were an anomaly. I think there's something real there — the overall success rate and the quarterback depth throughout the league has gone up.

Everyone says 'well, Deshaun Watson is one of these quarterbacks' — yeah, but I think we see fewer turnovers in this game.

It got pushed through 41 today. We're still seeing some 40.5s. If you can get 40.5 out to -115, even -120, I think that's actionable. Forty-one is a key number for NFL totals — we're recording this after a 31-10 game, so that's on point. Cleveland-Tampa over 40.5 is one of my favorite bets for next week."

💰 THE HALF-LOOK-AHEAD ALPHA

Fiddle: "We're going to find a bunch of these half look-aheads throughout the year — where one team has already played Sunday and the other plays Monday night. So when the week two lines reopen Monday morning, there's a huge asymmetry.

Jags +3 was one of my first in, along with the over 43.5 in that game. We knew Jacksonville came out looking good and — more importantly — healthy. I had the number at Jags +2.8, so at +3 I'm taking it because that factors in no injuries for Denver, and there's maybe a 4% chance a key Denver player gets hurt in the Monday game.

With the Broncos laying a total stinker, it's popped back instantly. Two and a halves everywhere, and there's even a 1.5 showing up on one of the exchanges."

📅 Coming Up

• Today: The college football Trench Report updates for Week 3
• Tomorrow: The NFL Trench Report updates for Week 2 — plus we grade the Week 1 BettorDay lines against actual results and where our closing line value landed

Fiddle's show has switched completely to a prediction-market lens in partnership with Novig — live order books, live trades on screen. "People looking for action when I'm live are going to see exactly what I'm taking. Take it with me at the same price." He's already down on Packers/Jets over 43.5 and added more at 44.5 live on air.

Novig and other sportsbook offers are in the promo tab — select your state.