> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Tuesday, September 15th, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/tuesday-september-15th-2026/ - Published: 2026-09-15T10:00:02.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-15T10:00:01.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## Missed Tackles & Market Reactions *Scott Seidenberg and Michael Fiddle recap the Chiefs win over the Broncos on Monday Night Football and the market reactions to week 1 games. Plus some NFL Week 2 trends.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) # 🏈 CHIEFS 31, BRONCOS 10 — AND WE BOTH GOT CRUSHED **Kenneth Walker: 23 carries, 173 yards, TD.** Kansas City embarrassed Denver at Arrowhead. --- ## The Damage Report **Scott:** "I had a lot invested on the **Broncos +3** — bet over a month ago — **plus a Broncos teaser from 2.5 to 8.5\. Neither came through.**" **Fiddle:** "**Misery loves company.** This summer, this was the first game I recognized as one that would gain CLV. **As soon as the schedule came out, I was the first one on the betting exchanges OFFERING liquidity for Broncos +3.** I got filled quite a bit for as long as the line stayed there — I was the one being bet against and taking fill. **A very big position for me. I'm lucky my entire order didn't fill before it moved to 2.5 and then 2.**" *(The one salvage: Scott live-bet *Dobbins over 22.5 rushing at the half* after Payton said they needed to run it — cashed on the first drive of the third quarter — and a *live under 47.5* after the first quarter.)* --- # 🚨 THE STATISTICAL ANOMALY ## Patrick Mahomes Did Not Complete a Single Pass of More Than SIX AIR YARDS | Metric | Number | | ------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------- | | **aDOT** | **4.24** | | **Longest completed air yards** | **6** *(his very first pass, to Xavier Worthy, at 0-0)* | | **Passing EPA per play** | **\-0.14** | | **Final score** | **Chiefs by 21** | **Scott:** "**If I told you Mahomes had a 4.24 aDOT, didn't complete a pass more than six air yards, and had a passing EPA per play of NEGATIVE 0.14 — did they win by 21?**" **Fiddle: "I'd tell you 31-10 Broncos."** --- ## ⚠️ THE MARKET IS GOING TO OVERREACT TO KANSAS CITY **Scott:** "**This was not a dominating Chiefs performance. This was a pathetic Broncos performance.** The Chiefs futures, the Super Bowl market — **it's going to over-inflate Kansas City when in reality it was just as much, if not more, Denver GIVING them this game.**" ### ⭐ THE PLAY: COLTS +7 (or 7.5?) (Sunday night) **The line:** Chiefs -6.5 at recording — **and the look-ahead was also -6.5.** **Scott:** "**I think by the time you're listening to this, that line is seven** — maybe 7.5 by kickoff Sunday night. **And I will be betting the Indianapolis Colts.**" **Fiddle's caution:** "**I tend to agree, but be a little wary — the Chiefs at Arrowhead consistently take action.** I was very surprised they didn't yesterday. The Colts weren't too impressive either. **But that Mahomes stat is cause for concern — and the Colts secondary is one of the stronger units on their defense.**" --- # 📉 THE BRONCOS TAPE: THREE FAILURES --- ## 1\. THE MISSED TACKLES — AN NFL RECORD | Team | Missed Tackle Rate | | ----------------------------------------------- | ------------------ | | **Broncos, last night** | **26.37%** | | Highest in the NFL all of last season (Bengals) | **13.3%** | | **Broncos, all of last season** | **7.4%** | **Per Next Gen Stats:** Denver **missed 28 tackles**, allowing **247 yards after missed tackles — the most by any defense in a game since 2018.** **Eight different defenders missed multiple tackles.** **Fiddle:** "**The Rashee Rice play — two defenders bounce into him and neither even tries to use their ARMS.** They just shoulder-bump him. You're inside the 10-yard line. **You have to wrap the guy up.**" **Scott:** "Aikman and Buck talked about **Andy Reid having the Chiefs in full pads five or six days in a row**, and Harbaugh running a physical camp with the Giants. **The Broncos looked like a team that did not hit or tackle in training camp.** Sean Payton is supposed to run a hard camp — **these misses were inexcusable at the NFL level.**" --- ## 2\. THEY ABANDONED THE RUN — THEIR BIGGEST STRENGTH **The Trench Report has Denver as the THIRD best O-line/D-line combo in the NFL and THIRD in run blocking.** **They ran it roughly 11-12 times before kneel-downs. The pass rate: 68.1%.** ### For Context | Team | Pass Rate | | ----------------------------------------------------- | --------- | | **Broncos, last night** | **68.1%** | | **Highest in the NFL all of last season** (Cardinals) | **63.9%** | **Fiddle:** "**Outside the Dobbins breakaway, they were averaging about 4.5 yards a carry.** This is strength on strength — **you need to see if your strength works.** Going away from the run that quickly seems like a rookie mistake from Davis Webb." --- ## 3\. BO NIX NEVER RAN **Scott:** "**They didn't design any rollouts, no read option plays.** He tried to run on the first play, didn't get positive yards, and that was it. He's fine — **everyone talked about how good he looked in the preseason.**" **Fiddle:** "**He said himself he reached his max speed as a runner two weeks ago** — there was a pregame piece about him hitting the fastest speed he's ever run in his life, in training camp." *(The mental errors weren't all on the coordinator either: *Jaylen Waddle dropped a massive third-down conversion* and Pat Bryant dropped one he should have had.)* --- ## 🎙️ THE PLAY-CALLING DEBATE **Scott:** "**Davis Webb clearly should not be calling plays.** And Sean Payton in his halftime interview was asked how it feels not calling plays and said 'ask me at the end of the game.' **He's going to take back play-calling responsibilities.**" **Fiddle disagrees:** "**I think Webb remains the play caller for quite a few more weeks. I don't think it's a quick trigger.** It felt like Payton wanted to pull it back at the start of the second half — but then he didn't, and once it got out of hand there was no reason to." --- # 📊 THE UPDATED MARKETS ## Super Bowl (FanDuel) | Team | Odds | | -------- | -------- | | **Rams** | **+650** | | Bills | +900 | | Seahawks | 10/1 | | Ravens | 11/1 | | Chiefs | 14/1 | ## MVP | Player | Odds | | --------------- | ----- | | Josh Allen | +400 | | Lamar Jackson | +600 | | Joe Burrow | +850 | | Caleb Williams | +900 | | Trevor Lawrence | +1400 | --- ## ⚠️ FIDDLE'S BIGGEST MARKET OVERREACTION: THE RAMS AREN'T DOWN ENOUGH **Fiddle:** "**I don't think we've downgraded the Rams enough** — only from 5/1 to 6.5/1\. **To still power rank them as the clear number one team, even without Myles Garrett for the next four weeks?** **With the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals all 1-0 and the Rams a full game back of EVERYONE in the division**, that's a very difficult path. Their offense, their schedule, their division. **I've had Rams to miss the playoffs since before the season.** **The overreaction is the Rams not being all the way back to +800, +850 — with the Bills and maybe the Ravens slightly ahead of them. We'll be doing this show in a few weeks and the Rams will be hovering around FIFTH in the futures market.**" --- # 🎯 WEEK 2 DOGS: THE FULL BREAKDOWN **Since the start of 2021, Week 2 underdogs are 44-30-4 ATS — 59.5%.** ### The Splits That Matter | Situation | Dog Record ATS | | --------------------------- | -------------- | | **0-1 dog vs 0-1 opponent** | **12-6** ✅ | | **1-0 dog vs 1-0 opponent** | **12-7-1** ✅ | | 1-0 dog vs 0-1 opponent | 5-6-1 ❌ | | 0-1 dog vs 1-0 opponent | 13-11-2 | **The takeaway: the edge is in SAME-RECORD matchups.** --- ## The Qualifying Games | Game | Line | The Read | | ---------------------------------- | ------------ | -------------------- | | Lions at Bills (1-0 vs 1-0) | BUF -4.5 | **Both pass** | | Panthers at Falcons (0-1 vs 0-1) | CAR -1.5 | QB-dependent | | **Vikings at Bears (1-0 vs 1-0)** | **CHI -5.5** | ⭐ **Play Vikings** | | Browns at Bucs (0-1 vs 0-1) | — | **Over, not a side** | | Commanders at Cowboys (0-1 vs 0-1) | DAL -3.5 | Maybe Was | | Seahawks at Cardinals (1-0 vs 1-0) | SEA -4.5 | Maybe Arizona | --- ## ❌ LIONS AT BILLS: NO INTEREST IN THE DOG **Fiddle:** "**They lost another offensive lineman against the Saints.** This is a terrible spot if you believe in the schedule components. **I think the Lions are overrated in market and the Bills are still slightly underrated. I have more trust in the Bills defense than market does and less faith in the Lions offense.** **I don't see how the Lions stop Buffalo at home.**" ### ⭐ THE STRUCTURE PLAY: BUFFALO ALTS **Scott:** "**Five is a DEAD number. It's not going to land on five.** So laying -4.5 does nothing for you, even at a reduced price. **I'd much rather take Bills -6.5 at +128** — or -5.5 at +106\. **Give me the alt line.**" *(Fiddle pulled it live: games have landed on exactly five in *5% of games* over the last three seasons.)* ### And the Prop **Fiddle:** "**Dalton Kincaid receiving props are going to be very interesting** — he's the one who stretches over the middle. **If Detroit is missing two of their safeties on those deep shots, I think he reaps the biggest rewards going low or deep post over the middle.**" --- # ⭐ THE GAME OF THE WEEK: VIKINGS AT BEARS (-5.5) ## Fiddle: Vikings Are the Sharp Side "**So much of that Bears offense is based on TIMING — and you are completely thrown off by the complex blitzing schemes of that Vikings defense.** That's the angle that disrupts them. **And this Bears defense is a sieve. They have more holes than Swiss cheese.** **I don't think the biggest gap is between Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray.** We just saw Wentz put up points against the Packers defense — **and I think the Packers defense long term is going to be way more formidable than the Bears defense. You might get some CLV backing the Vikings.**" --- ## 🧠 SCOTT'S FLORES ANGLE: THE ANTI-BLITZ **"Brian Flores has mentally F'd with Caleb Williams."** **The setup:** Flores has a famously high blitz rate — **fully on display last week against Green Bay.** **The history that matters:** > **Week 1, 2025 — Vikings 27, Bears 24:** Flores did NOT blitz. He played back in coverage and gave up the underneath. **Caleb went 21/35 for 210 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT — OVER his completions, UNDER his passing yards.** *(A same game parlay Scott gave out that cashed.)* > > **The rematch:** Flores blitzed him all night long. > > **The second meeting last year:** **16/32 for 193 yards, no touchdowns.** **Caleb Williams is on record calling Brian Flores "the king of the cover zero."** **Scott:** "**He went UNDER his passing yards in BOTH games against Flores last year.** After the blitz rate we saw last week, **do not be surprised if this game is drop coverage and very minimal blitzing. He dared Caleb Williams to beat him without the blitz — and Caleb couldn't do it.**" ### The Prop to Hunt **Fiddle: "Caleb Williams interception props?"** — not posted yet at recording. "**The Bears had one of those incredibly lucky full-season turnover numbers — Caleb threw a lot of interception-worthy balls that were not picked off.** Get some top-down perspective, see where the sharper books price it. **That's a dart throw. Pun intended.**" --- # ⭐ FIDDLE'S FAVORITE BET OF WEEK 2: BROWNS/BUCS OVER 40.5 **Fiddle:** "**I don't think these week one overs were an anomaly. I think there's something real there** — the overall success rate and the quarterback depth throughout the league has gone up. Everyone says 'well, Deshaun Watson is one of these quarterbacks' — **yeah, but I think we see fewer turnovers in this game.** **It got pushed through 41 today. We're still seeing some 40.5s. If you can get 40.5 out to -115, even -120, I think that's actionable. Forty-one is a key number for NFL totals** — we're recording this after a 31-10 game, so that's on point. **Cleveland-Tampa over 40.5 is one of my favorite bets for next week.**" --- # 💰 THE HALF-LOOK-AHEAD ALPHA **Fiddle:** "**We're going to find a bunch of these half look-aheads throughout the year** — where one team has already played Sunday and the other plays Monday night. **So when the week two lines reopen Monday morning, there's a huge asymmetry.** **Jags +3 was one of my first in, along with the over 43.5 in that game.** We knew Jacksonville came out looking good and — more importantly — **healthy.** I had the number at **Jags +2.8**, so at +3 I'm taking it **because that factors in no injuries for Denver, and there's maybe a 4% chance a key Denver player gets hurt in the Monday game.** **With the Broncos laying a total stinker, it's popped back instantly. Two and a halves everywhere, and there's even a 1.5 showing up on one of the exchanges.**" --- ## 📅 Coming Up - **Today:** The **college football Trench Report updates for Week 3** - **Tomorrow:** The **NFL Trench Report updates for Week 2** — plus we **grade the Week 1 BettorDay lines** against actual results and where our closing line value landed **Fiddle's show** has switched completely to a prediction-market lens in partnership with **Novig** — live order books, live trades on screen. "**People looking for action when I'm live are going to see exactly what I'm taking. Take it with me at the same price.**" He's already down on **Packers/Jets over 43.5** and added more at 44.5 live on air. *Novig and other sportsbook offers are in the *promo tab* — select your state.* [ Bettor Day Exclusive Sportsbook Promos Promo Codes, Unlocked For You We've partnered with top sportsbooks to bring exclusive sign-up offers to the Bettor Day community. 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