MNF Recap & NFL Record Study

Scott Seidenberg recaps the Falcons win over the Saints on MNF where we cashed another Same Game Parlay! Plus a study of NFL team's schedules where we proclaim, you are what your opponents record says you are.

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✅ EVERY VERSION OF THE PARLAY CASHED

Falcons 45, Saints 24

The legs: Drake London over 78.5 ✅ (5 catches, 96 yards) · Falcons moneyline ✅ · over 47.5 ✅ · Penix under 1.5 passing TDs ✅ (15/20, 223 yards, one touchdown to Dotson) · Shough over 254.5 ✅ (286 yards and a touchdown)

That's TWO same game parlay cashes in four weeks!!!

🏃 MR. PRIMETIME

Bijan Robinson: 19 carries, 145 yards, 2 TD. Brian Robinson: 14 carries, 62 yards, 3 TD.

FIVE rushing touchdowns for Atlanta.

Scott: "We joked a couple of weeks ago about having to see the Atlanta Falcons on three consecutive primetime games. I don't think we care anymore — because they are GOOD in primetime, and Bijan Robinson is EXCELLENT in primetime. We're going to have to start calling him Mr. Primetime."

(And on the other side: Alvin Kamara had seven carries for 23 yards — and TWO rushing touchdowns. "If you had the Kamara anytime touchdown or the two-touchdown prop, kudos to you. Imagine the parlay — Kamara two touchdowns, both Robinsons two touchdowns. You'd have cashed a pretty number.")

⚠️ THE TYLER SHOUGH CONCERN

"He was only sacked twice, but he took A LOT of hits and a lot of pressures.

And now you face a Minnesota Vikings defense that ALL THEY DO IS BLITZ. They love to get after the quarterback. They love to put hits on the quarterback.

The Saints are going to have to draw up a better game plan to get the ball out of his hands quickly — because that's what's going to happen against Minnesota."

Week 5 Early Lines

📊 THE ARTICLE: YOU ARE WHAT YOUR OPPONENT'S RECORD SAYS YOU ARE

Out later today on BettorDay.com and in the BettorDay mobile app — emailed free to every newsletter subscriber.

The Method

"A play off the famous Bill Parcells quote. I looked at every team's opponents' records in all of their OTHER games — excluding the games against each other.

This is NOT Vegas power ratings or Vegas win totals. This is just: how have your opponents done against everybody ELSE?"

The Question It Answers

"Maybe our opinions of these teams have been swayed too much by what we've seen in one game or two. Maybe hope is not lost for teams that are 0-4 or 1-3. And maybe some of the best teams in the league are NOT AS GOOD AS WE THINK THEY ARE."

🚩 THE EASIEST SCHEDULES SO FAR

Buffalo Bills (3-1) — Opponents are 3-9

"Three and nine. Based on our study, it is the WORST RECORD OF OPPONENTS IN THE NFL. We could make the argument that the Buffalo Bills at 3-1 have played the easiest schedule in the league so far."

Also at 3-9

The Cincinnati Bengals — and the Seattle Seahawks.

🏔️ THE HARDEST SCHEDULES SO FAR

Denver Broncos (2-2) — Opponents are 11-1

"Eleven and one in games not involving the Broncos. That is the BEST RECORD of any team's opponents in the NFL — along with the Miami Dolphins, who are 0-4."

Los Angeles Rams (2-2) — Opponents are 9-3

San Francisco · the Giants · Denver · Philadelphia — the second-best opponents' record in the NFL.

⭐ FIDDLE'S BEST BET: RAMS -2.5 vs THE BILLS (Monday Night, Week 5)

He's laying the 2.5 with the Rams at home.

And the Study Backs It Up

⭐ THE FUTURES PLAY: BRONCOS TO WIN THE AFC WEST (+315)

The Case

"Denver might be better than we think"

🗓️ THE SCHEDULE FLIPS COMPLETELY

"We talk about how difficult their START was. Look at how it OPENS UP."

The rest: at the Chargers · Cardinals · Panthers · Raiders (home) · at the Steelers · Dolphins (home) · at the Jets · at the Raiders · at the Patriots · Chargers (home)

"Outside of those difficult games, THE BRONCOS ARE GOING TO BE FAVORED IN EVERY GAME THEY PLAY for the rest of the season.

In fact, Denver has the FIFTH EASIEST remaining strength of schedule in the NFL based on the record of their future opponents."

The Chiefs' Path Isn't Clean

"They're at the Seahawks on a Sunday night — actually the week BEFORE playing Denver. That's a tough stretch. They also have to go to Buffalo and to the Rams. There are possible losses on that schedule."

The catch: Denver already lost to Kansas City once, so they have to win the rematch — which is in Denver — and hope KC hiccups along the way.

⚾ MLB POSTSEASON

2-0 Leads in the American League

Tonight's Game Threes

Tomorrow's Do-or-Die Game Threes

Guardians vs White Sox — no pitching announcements yet. Yankees vs Rays — Max Fried pitches in the Bronx. Early line: Yankees -162.

🏒 THE NHL SHOTS ON GOAL STRATEGY

Our NHL HQ is cooking. Last night's top two projections were both Dallas Stars:

⭐ THE SPRINKLE STRATEGY

"Something I really love to do when betting a shots on goal prop.

If you like the player to get VOLUME ON NET, then you might as well take a chance that they're going to SCORE.

Split your bet accordingly. Maybe 80% of your bet goes on the shots on goal prop, and you take 20% and put it on the ANYTIME GOAL.

If the player scores, not only is it a shot on goal — which obviously helps you cash your prop — but you get the PLUS MONEY CASH on the anytime goal too. It maximizes your payout on the same handicap for that player."

What's in the NHL HQ

Matchup analysis on every game · the first period database — over/under records, straight up records, goal in first 10 records, and goalie stats in the first period · shots on goal prop recommendations

Two parlay cashes in four weeks. Let's keep it rolling into Thursday night.

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