NFL Market Watch & NBA Season Tip Off

Scott Seidenberg and Michael Fiddle take a look at NFL Week 7 and wonder how the market is treating certain teams. Plus the NBA season tips off tonight and the guys have Best Bets!

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🩸 JALEN HURTS IS OUT FOR THE SEASON — AND HE PLAYED ON 36 HOURS WITHOUT SLEEP

Blood clots in his lungs. He's on IR and done for the year. But the part that stopped both guys cold is what happened before London.

After being diagnosed with a superficial blood clot, doctors told Hurts not to sleep as a precaution. He had been awake roughly 36 hours when he started against the Jaguars.

He played the entire game. He attempted 40 passes. They nearly won it. Then he was back in the hospital.

🤨 Fiddle's Problem Is With the Framing

Fiddle: "The weirdest part was the way it was framed. The original news came from Tom Pelissero, and it was 'how committed is Jalen Hurts to football.' They put it in like, hey, this guy is Superman and he cares so much about football and his team that he was willing to play through this."

"My first reaction was — is that safe to play? I'm not the doctor or the expert, but this seems like a really weird story."

"And then there have been a lot of questions directed at Nick Sirianni about how come you let him fly. And Sirianni's like, listen, I'm not the doctor. So — should we have access to some of the doctors? Should reporters and beat writers have access to the medical staff? Does that get into HIPAA violations, even though some of the information is so public about the decisions for handling these things? It's really strange."

DeVonta Smith also appears to have re-injured himself in that game.

Fiddle: "I was kind of holding out hope — not as a fan, but from a betting perspective. They could still eke out this division and be dangerous in the playoffs, because their defense is good, they're star-studded, they can run the ball sometimes, and they have the tush push to convert short yardage. I think this is a little bit of a nail in the coffin."

📊 THE NFC EAST JUST DID SOMETHING UNPRECEDENTED

We went the first two weeks in NFL history where a division didn't win a single game. The Commanders, Giants, Cowboys and Eagles all failed to record a win for two weeks in a row — and there was a matchup between two of them. The Giants and Commanders played and each recorded a tie. 

🦅 SCOTT: DON'T GIVE UP ON THE SEASON. GO GET A QUARTERBACK.

Scott: "Just trade for Justin Herbert. The Chargers' season is over — let them start from scratch. Trade for Justin Herbert and re-engage yourself as a Super Bowl contender. Then you can decide what you want to do with Jalen Hurts moving forward."

Fiddle: "Kirk Cousins? Would you go after Kirk Cousins?"

Scott: "I'd go after any veteran quarterback that's available. I would not give up on the season, because the NFC East is terrible."

🏆 The Roster Argument

Scott: "You could say the Cowboys might have the better offensive roster, because quarterback is the most important position and they have elite wide receivers. But the Eagles have the best overall roster in that division. It's not even close — even having lost Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens on the offensive line. If they get a quarterback who can come in and be competent, this is not a lost season."

⭐ THE NUMBER: EAGLES +460 TO MAKE THE NFC PLAYOFFS

Scott: "Think about how everybody is viewing this Eagles season as a lost season — and you can get them at +460."

🐏 THE RAMS: DAVANTE ADAMS OUT 6 TO 10 WEEKS

Hamstring. As if the season could get worse.

The 2-4 Rams are +1100 to win the Super Bowl — fifth-shortest on the board — and would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

💰 Fiddle's Position, Held Since Preseason

Rams +400 to MISS the playoffs.

Fiddle: "This was a base I was on before the season — they're in such a hard division, and they're a few injuries away. They were actually incredibly healthy last season. I just don't know if that was going to continue."

"Now I think they're probably pretty well priced in market. The Davante news stinks, but they're going to get kicked off their market rating — they were still top in the market ratings prior to this week. Losing Davante hurts in the red zone but probably shouldn't be a huge deal against their ratings. They've got guys coming on strong at receiver with Puka back on the other side."

And the confession: "I took them in Survivor and they kicked my ass out of the tournament."

🎯 THE MARKET RATINGS MASTERCLASS: RAMS −4.5 AT RAIDERS

This is the best exchange of the episode, because Scott ran his transitive-property exercise — the one that correctly nailed Broncos +2.5 last Thursday — and Fiddle took it apart.

Scott's setup

Scott: "In back-to-back weeks we have seen the Buffalo Bills as a 4.5-point favorite at the Raiders. And now we have the Rams as 4.5-point favorites at the Raiders. The market right now is telling us the Rams and the Bills are even teams. And that couldn't be further from the truth."

❌ Fiddle: "I disagree."

Fiddle: "We just had a Rams-Bills game where the Rams were steamed from −2.5 to −3.5 in market. If home field advantage is worth 1.5 — and maybe a little less at SoFi — then the Rams should be the better team. I priced this game at six before the Davante news, so 4.5 now. If it was a 3.5 line negating the home field, they're a point and a half, two points better. I think we're perfectly on here."

And then the counterfactual that ends the argument:

"So much of this is small sample size — getting a kick blocked and then going the other way, and the Bills hitting a kick in overtime. If the Rams win that game by three because they just make the kick in overtime, and Mevis keeps his job, are we completely different here?"

Scott: "No, you're right."

🔑 How Market Ratings Actually Update

Scott pushed back one more time: doesn't laying an egg at home against Arizona have to downgrade the Rams?

Fiddle: "Yes — that one does downgrade the Rams. And from a market rating perspective, the biggest point is where do these close, and then what's the essential scoring margin of the outcome."

Fiddle: "So market direction, closing line, and subsequent results would tell you to slightly downgrade the Bills as well."

That's the lesson worth keeping: a loss where the market was with you costs your rating almost nothing. A loss where the market never showed up costs you plenty. The result alone doesn't tell you which one you just watched.

⭐ WEEK 7 BEST BET: CHIEFS +2.5 AT SEATTLE (SNF)

Fiddle: "This was one of my first plays of the week."

On the timing: "Normally it's like, do you lay a +2.5 early in the week because is it going to get to three and then you're much better off? Fezzik will yell at me for saying this — there's no chance this reaches Chiefs plus three."

The case

• "Margin of victory for the Chiefs makes me upgrade the Chiefs."
• "Broncos taking steam against the Seahawks and then winning makes me downgrade the Seahawks."
• On Darnold: "I understand they're getting Charbonnet back, but Darnold has just really not looked good. A lot of turnovers. Even when they won the Super Bowl he had a lot of turnovers last year."
• "I trust Mahomes to find ways to score against a difficult defense. Seattle's defense is very good — maybe a step back from last season — but I trust them to get it done. Maybe they get Rashee Rice back. Kenneth Walker is an unstoppable force for the Chiefs right now."
• The summary: "I trust the Chiefs offense to score a lot more than I do Seattle to not make mistakes. And the Seattle offense is super one-dimensional. Easy Chiefs click early in the week. The moneyline is not priced fairly, so it's just a +2.5 grab."

🎚️ And It's a Prime Teaser Leg

Scott: "It's also an incredible teaser candidate. With correct teaser pricing you take the Chiefs from +2.5 to +8.5 and find a dance partner."

🏈 MONDAY NIGHT RECAP: 49ERS 23, COMMANDERS 17

The streak is over — but the dog still covered.

San Francisco led 23-3 midway through the third quarter and did not score again. Washington put up 14 in the final 9:40 and covered the 7.5 comfortably while losing the game.

San Francisco's defense got home: four sacks, 10 QB hits. And the penalty epidemic rolled on — 18 combined flags for 154 yards.

The streak of primetime underdogs winning outright ends at nine.

🏀 NBA OPENING NIGHT

🗓️ Tonight's Three Games

Scott's lean: "As much as I'm going to celebrate the Knicks raising the banner — +5.5 is the move on the 76ers for night number one."

Fiddle: "I do think that will be the side that takes some steam. I don't have any plays on the spread there. I do have an early over price at a good number."

⭐ FIDDLE'S OPENING-NIGHT THESIS: THE TOTALS ARE TOO LOW

"A lot of the totals for opening nights in the NBA are a little bit depressed — as in they're too low, and they should be more over spots than under spots across the board."

Why the market has it wrong

He thinks it's an overreaction to two new points of emphasis:

1. The hand-check rule tightened. "Last year the rule was you couldn't come to a full extension where your elbow straightens. This year it's just past 90 degrees to create separation from your defender — a point of emphasis to call an offensive foul."

2. Illegal screens. "More offensive fouls called on the person setting the screen."

Fiddle: "I think that's a little bit overrated in how much it's going to impact shot opportunities — or potential shot and free throw opportunities that now become offensive fouls, turnovers, set your defense, go back the other way slowly. I think those are a little bit overblown."

What he thinks actually governs: "The shooting depth just continues throughout the league. These benches are such good shooters, and there are such specific role players who are mainly professional shooters now. The pace is so high, the efficiency is so high."

⭐ The specific play: KNICKS/SIXERS OVER 231.5

"It's gotten pricey from where it was a few weeks ago when these lines were opening, but — Maxey and Edgecombe are going to push the pace and be willing to leave Embiid behind. And then when they do set up half court, Embiid's probably one of the best half-court offensive players in the NBA."

"And vice versa: some of the Knicks' biggest playoff success was being able to push against teams. When they played the Sixers specifically in the playoffs it was — hey Sixers, you don't really have a bench, you don't really have depth, we're going to gas you out because we play eight, nine deep every game and can go ten or eleven. I don't expect much to change. I expect pace in this game."

🏀 Thunder at Spurs — the WCF Rematch

Fiddle's position: "My numbers angle toward OKC still having a little bit of value. But here's the caveat, and this gets into my play."

⭐ THE PLAY: CHET HOLMGREN UNDERS

Holmgren has not played a single preseason game — a quad contusion. He is questionable.

Fiddle: "They asked Coach Daigneault, is he going to play? He said everyone did a little bit at practice today, but we'll let the injury report speak for players' availability. So I'm actually uncertain if they're going to let Chet play. I'm not sure if he's playing five-on-five in practice."

"Even if Chet does play, I don't expect him to play the 28 to 29 minutes he averaged last season. I expect 18 to 22."

🚀 NBA HQ IS LIVE

What you can use right now at BettorDay.com and in the app:

• The games, the odds, and click inside any game for matchup data (populating this week)
• Search player props — points, rebounds, assists, PRA
• The live odds screen is free — no Insider or Premium needed — with the full prop menu and every derivative market, on every game, not just NBA

Inside NBA HQ:

• Prop projections with hit rates
• Analysis based on the opponent
• Usage rates
• Injury reports — so you know who's out and which players' usage rates jump without them on the floor
• The first quarter / first half database, including who makes the first basket and which team wins the opening tip — exactly the markets the partner books may stop offering
• 📍 Live NOW on BettorDay.com and the Bettor Day mobile app, ahead of Tuesday's tip-off. Become a Bettor Day Insider or Premium member to get it. Compare tiers →

🧰 Fiddle's Injury-Report Workflow — Steal This

The problem: "You're going to see the alert that Luka Dončić is out, and the Lakers line will be −7 and it'll move to −2. You might be late to the party. The screens lock and reopen, or on sportsbooks you'll get flagged for limits shooting those latencies. On prediction markets there are a lot of bots trading into it."

The better angle: "Luka's out. Okay — the angle to shoot here is Reaves over assists, Reaves over points, Mamukelashvili over threes. And parlay those things."

The actual discipline, and this is the part most people skip:

"When you're studying injury reports for the day — is Luka questionable for the next five games? Write down what you're going to want based on the news. If Luka in, I want XYZ. If Luka out, I want ABC. Then you get the news and you angle-shoot it right away."

"You shouldn't have time to process and figure it out. You should figure those things out beforehand, so that you're three or four clicks away from getting some EV into your account."

⚾ THE RAYS ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES

Tampa Bay beat Cleveland 7-3 on Monday night to win the ALCS 4-2 — closing it out at home after winning three straight, two of them in Cleveland.

Cleveland took Games 1 and 3. The Rays took everything after that.

Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz both homered, each driving in two. Richie Palacios added a double and two RBI. Taylor Walls didn't get a hit and still reached three times — he walked in all four plate appearances but one, part of a night where Tampa turned seven hits into seven runs on a .385 on-base percentage.

Freddy Peralta got the win again — 5⅓ innings, one earned run — after shutting Cleveland out for six in Game 2. Cleveland ran eight pitchers at it and gave up home runs from two of them.

🏆 So the World Series is Brewers vs. Rays

Game 1 is Friday, October 23 in Milwaukee. Games 1 and 2 at American Family Field, Games 3 and 4 at Tampa Bay.

📅 Coming Up

• 🏀 Tonight: The NBA season tips off — Celtics/Pistons, Sixers/Knicks, Thunder/Spurs
• 🎙️ Wednesday: David Bearman joins the pod
• ⚾ Friday: World Series Game 1 — Rays at Brewers
• 🏈 Sunday night: Chiefs at Seahawks

🎧 Fiddle's podcast has been rebranded — NBA Betting with Fiddle is now Predicting Sports with Michael Fiddle, wherever you get podcasts. Follow him at @FiddlesPicks.