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# Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
- URL: https://www.bettorday.com/tuesday-october-13th-2026/
- Published: 2026-10-13T10:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-13T10:00:03.000Z
- Author: Scott Seidenberg
- Tags: Newsletter

## MNF Recap / Week 6 Lookahead & MLB Favorites in Trouble

> 🎙️ **No podcast this morning.** The Bettor Day podcast returns **Wednesday morning** with David Bearman. Today: a wild Monday night in Los Angeles, two LCS games that went sideways for the favorites, and a Week 6 board with four brand-new favorites.

---

# ⏱️ BILLS 37, RAMS 34 (OT) — AND BUFFALO ALMOST GAVE IT AWAY WITH THE CLOCK

Buffalo won. Buffalo should never have had to play overtime to do it.

## The sequence that shouldn't have happened

Tied 27-27 with the ball and the game in their hands, the Bills scored too fast.

| Time        | Play                               | Score           |
| ----------- | ---------------------------------- | --------------- |
| **Q4 1:44** | James Cook, 5-yard TD run          | Bills 33-27     |
| **Q4 1:39** | Tyler Bass extra point             | **Bills 34-27** |
| **Q4 0:08** | Kyren Williams, 1-yard TD run      | Bills 34-33     |
| **Q4 0:05** | Harrison Mevis extra point         | **34-34**       |
| **OT**      | **Tyler Bass, 45-yard field goal** | **Bills 37-34** |

The Rams needed **1 minute 31 seconds** to go the length of the field and tie it. Buffalo handed them the clock to do it.

## 🎯 The House Take: That Touchdown Was a Mistake

Joe Brady Knew it. 

Buffalo had the ball, tied, inside two minutes. **The correct play was to take the clock down and kick the field goal** — or walk it into the end zone as the clock expired. Take knees, bleed it to single digits, let Bass win it and go home 30-27 with the Rams never touching the ball again.

Instead they scored on first-and-goal with 1:44 showing, kicked the extra point, and gave Matthew Stafford time and a timeout, of course he drove it down the field to tie the game. 

## 📊 How the Rams Lost a Game They Dominated

Los Angeles out-gained Buffalo, out-possessed Buffalo by nearly eight minutes, didn't turn it over once — and lost.

|                    | Rams        | Bills        |
| ------------------ | ----------- | ------------ |
| **Total yards**    | **454**     | 436          |
| **First downs**    | **33**      | 25           |
| **Possession**     | **37:57**   | 30:08        |
| **Turnovers**      | **0**       | 2            |
| **Yards per play** | 5.8         | **7.6**      |
| **Field goals**    | **0-for-2** | **3-for-3**  |
| **Penalties**      | 11 (84 yds) | 13 (112 yds) |

**Stafford: 40-of-54, 383 yards, 3 touchdowns, no picks, 111.9 rating.** Davante Adams caught two touchdowns, Puka Nacua one.

**And the Rams still found three ways to lose it:**

1. **A missed field goal.**
2. **A blocked field goal.** (0-for-2 on the night, Mevis.)
3. **A failed two-point conversion** at 20-19 in the fourth — Stafford sacked on the attempt.

That's roughly eight points left on the field in a game decided by three in overtime.

## 🏃 Buffalo Won This on the Ground

> **Bills: 37 carries, 234 yards, 6.3 per attempt, 3 rushing touchdowns.**

---

# ⚾ MLB: BOTH LCS FAVORITES ARE IN TROUBLE

Monday delivered two games and two teams in real danger.

## 🍺 NLCS Game 2: Brewers 7, Dodgers 4 — Milwaukee leads 2-0

The Dodgers are heading home down two games, and the way they lost is worse than the fact that they lost.

> **Los Angeles finished with THREE HITS.**

|                                      | Brewers      | Dodgers     |
| ------------------------------------ | ------------ | ----------- |
| **Runs**                             | 7            | 4           |
| **Hits**                             | **12**       | **3**       |
| **Team average**                     | **.343**     | **.107**    |
| **Team OPS**                         | .909         | **.299**    |
| **With runners in scoring position** | **6-for-15** | **0-for-4** |
| **Errors**                           | 2            | 2           |

**The middle of the Dodgers order did nothing.** Shohei Ohtani 0-for-4\. Will Smith 0-for-4\. Freddie Freeman 0-for-3\. Teoscar Hernández 0-for-4\. Max Muncy 0-for-3\. The only three hits came from Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and a Kyle Tucker double.

**Milwaukee's night:**

- **William Contreras: 3-for-5, home run, 3 RBI**
- **Christian Yelich: 2-for-5, 2 RBI**
- Brice Turang: 2-for-5, a double, 3 runs
- David Hamilton: 2-for-4, 3 runs
- Cooper Pratt: 2-for-4

**The pitching tells the story of how both teams are built right now.** Milwaukee used five arms and needed 125 pitches to get through nine innings — 

Los Angeles used **eight pitchers and 172 pitches to cover eight innings.** Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw 75 pitches to get 2⅔ and gave up three. Brock Stewart took the loss. Edgardo Henriquez gave up three hits and two runs in an inning.

---

## ⚾ ALCS Game 1: Guardians 7, Rays 3 — Cleveland leads 1-0

Tampa Bay led 2-0 after the first inning, got six strong innings from their starter, and then watched the bullpen hand the game away in four innings.

### The innings that mattered

| Inning  | Guardians | Rays  |
| ------- | --------- | ----- |
| 1st     | 0         | **2** |
| 2nd–5th | 0         | 0     |
| 6th     | 1         | 0     |
| 7th     | 1         | 0     |
| 8th     | **2**     | 1     |
| **9th** | **3**     | 0     |

**Drew Rasmussen did his job:** 6 innings, 8 hits, 2 earned runs, 7 strikeouts. He left with his team in it.

**Then the bullpen:**

| Pitcher             | IP  | ER    | ERA   |
| ------------------- | --- | ----- | ----- |
| **Tyler Wells** (L) | 0.1 | **2** | 54.00 |
| **Cole Sulser**     | 0.2 | **3** | 40.50 |

**One inning of work between them. Five earned runs.** That's the ballgame.

**Cleveland's offense was relentless — 14 hits:**

- **Chase DeLauter: 3-for-5, home run, double, 3 runs**
- **José Ramírez: 3-for-5, 2 runs, an RBI**
- **Patrick Bailey: 2-for-4, home run**
- **Nathaniel Lowe: 2-for-5, 2 RBI**
- Jo Adell: double, 2 RBI

Cleveland hit **.350** as a team with four extra-base hits. Foster Griffin gave them four innings and Hunter Gaddis got the win out of the bullpen, with Daniel Espino striking out three in a clean inning.

Tampa's offense managed seven hits. Cedric Mullins homered, Yandy Díaz went 2-for-5, Jonny DeLuca 2-for-4, and Junior Caminero drove in one. Jonathan Aranda went 0-for-4.

---

## 🔜 The Next LCS Games

### ⚾ TONIGHT — ALCS Game 2: Guardians at Rays

**Tuesday, 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT**

The must-win is Tampa's. **Live model has the Rays at roughly 56%** — modest respect for the home side after they just lost at home.

**What to watch:** whether Kevin Cash trusts the back of that bullpen again. Wells and Sulser combining for five earned runs in an inning is the kind of outing that reshapes how a manager navigates the seventh and eighth for the rest of a series. If Tampa has to shorten the game, their starter needs to go deep.

### ⚾ TOMORROW — NLCS Game 3: Brewers at Dodgers

**Wednesday, 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT**

Los Angeles comes home down 0-2\. **Live model has the Dodgers at roughly 61%** — the market is treating the three-hit night as noise rather than signal, and giving full credit to the home-park and talent edges.

**The honest question:** is a lineup that just went 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position and got nothing from Ohtani, Freeman, Smith, Hernández, and Muncy really a 61% favorite? That's where the number is. Whether it's right is the whole bet.

---

# 🏈 NFL WEEK 6: THREE NEW FAVORITES

Here's what the market has done to the Week 6 board since the look-ahead numbers posted — and the headline is that **four teams flipped from underdog to favorite.**

## 🔄 The Three Flips

| Game                       | Look-ahead       | Now             | Move                       |
| -------------------------- | ---------------- | --------------- | -------------------------- |
| **Steelers at Buccaneers** | Bucs **−1.5**    | Bucs **+2.5**   | **4 points** → Pittsburgh  |
| **Saints at Giants**       | Giants **+1**    | Giants **−1.5** | **2.5 points** → New York  |
| **Cowboys at Packers**     | Packers **+1.5** | Packers **−1**  | **2.5 points** → Green Bay |

### 🏴‍☠️ The Big One: Four Points on Steelers-Bucs

This is the largest move on the board and it's pointed straight at Pittsburgh.

A week ago the market had Tampa Bay as a 1.5-point home favorite. Now the Steelers are laying 2.5 on the road. That's a **four-point swing** — and it comes off a weekend where Pittsburgh beat the Colts 34-22 (AJ's best bet of the show, cashed) and Tampa Bay *won* in Dallas on Thursday night.

Both teams won. The number moved four points anyway. Worth asking whether that's the Steelers earning respect or the market overcorrecting on a Buccaneers team that, by Mac's EPA audit last week, was 27th on offense even with turnovers stripped out.

### 🧀 Green Bay Flips After the Bears Blowout

The look-ahead had Green Bay as a **+1.5 home underdog** to Dallas. After 31-7 over Chicago — Jordan Love 25-of-31 for 367 and a 137.5 rating — they're **−1 favorites.**

Context worth remembering: this is the same market that had Chicago laying 2.5 at Lambeau nine days ago. The Packers have now been repriced twice in two weeks in opposite directions.

### New York Flip at Home

A 2.5-point moves that turns a home dog into home favorites:

- **Giants −1.5 vs. Saints.** New York is **3-1-1** and leads the NFC East after the tie in Washington. New Orleans is 1-4 and lost 23-13 at home to the Vikings.

## 📈 Two More Big Moves (No Flip)

| Game                  | Look-ahead   | Now            | Move          |
| --------------------- | ------------ | -------------- | ------------- |
| **Cardinals at Rams** | Rams −10.5   | **Rams −13**   | 2.5 → LA      |
| **Bills at Raiders**  | Raiders +3.5 | **Raiders +6** | 2.5 → Buffalo |

**Rams −13** is a statement. Los Angeles just *lost* on Monday night and the market pushed them two and a half points further. That's entirely about Arizona, who got buried 45-21 by Detroit and are now 1-4 with a patched-together offensive line. Dan's note from Saturday's Survivor pod reads like a preview: Arizona lost their left tackle and their round-two right guard, and Jacoby Brissett folds under pressure. The market has now priced that in fully.

**Raiders +6** is the market agreeing with Fezzik. He said Thursday, "the Raiders are never good. Never." Las Vegas then lost 45-17 in Foxborough. The number moved 2.5 toward Buffalo.

---

## 📋 The Full Week 6 Board

### Thursday, October 15

| Game                    | Line   | Look-ahead   |
| ----------------------- | ------ | ------------ |
| Seahawks at **Broncos** | DEN +3 | *was DEN +2* |

Seattle is 3-2 off the home loss to San Francisco. Denver is 3-2 and won at the Chargers. One point moved toward Seattle.

### Sunday, October 18

| Game                       | Line            | Look-ahead / Note             |
| -------------------------- | --------------- | ----------------------------- |
| 🇬🇧 Texans vs **Jaguars** | **JAX −3**      | *London*                      |
| Bears at **Falcons**       | **CHI −3** ⚠️   | *was CHI -1 —*                |
| Ravens at Browns           | CLE +3.5        | *was CLE +3*                  |
| Titans at **Colts**        | IND −6.5        | —                             |
| Jets at **Patriots**       | NE −7.5         | *was NE −7*                   |
| Saints at **Giants**       | **NYG −1.5** ⚠️ | *was NYG +1 — *flip**         |
| Panthers at **Eagles**     | PHI −1.5        | —                             |
| **Steelers** at Buccaneers | **TB +2.5** ⚠️  | *was TB −1.5 — *flip, 4 pts** |
| Cardinals at **Rams**      | **LA −13**      | *was −10.5*                   |
| Chargers at **Chiefs**     | KC −7.5         | —                             |
| **Bills** at Raiders       | **LV +6**       | *was +3.5*                    |
| Cowboys at **Packers**     | **GB −1** ⚠️    | *was GB +1.5 — *flip**        |

### Monday, October 19

| Game                    | Line    |
| ----------------------- | ------- |
| Commanders at **49ers** | SF −7.5 |

---

## 👀 Three Things on This Board

**🇬🇧 The Jaguars stay in London at only −3.** Jacksonville is 4-1 and just beat the Eagles on a 57-yard field goal. Houston is 1-4 but won 26-3 at Tennessee and got Nico Collins back. Mac flagged the acclimatization edge on Saturday — Jacksonville doesn't travel, Houston does, and the Jaguars have now spent a week in country. A three-point number between a 4-1 and a 1-4 team says the market respects Houston's underlying play, which tracks with the DVOA note that they were one of the best 0-4 teams on record.

**🦅 Philadelphia is only −1.5 at home against a 2-2 Carolina team.** That is the clearest statement on this board. Six weeks ago the Eagles were a Super Bowl favorite. They're 2-3, they rushed for 22 yards on 18 carries in London, Lane Johnson is retired, Cam Jurgens is traded, and the market now makes them a coin flip at the Linc against the Panthers.

**💔 The Chargers are 0-5** and catching 7.5 in Kansas City. Along with the Titans and Dolphins, that's three winless teams at the five-game mark.

---

## 📅 Coming Up

- 🎙️ **Wednesday morning:** The Bettor Day podcast returns with David Bearman
- 📺 **Thursday, 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT:** The BettorDay Football Show streams live on YouTube and Twitter
- ⚾ **Tonight:** ALCS Game 2, Guardians at Rays
- ⚾ **Wednesday:** NLCS Game 3, Brewers at Dodgers
- 🏈 **Thursday night:** Seahawks at Broncos kicks off Week 6

---

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