World Cup Semifinal Preview
Scott Seidenberg recaps last nights Home Run Derby and Brad Thomas previews the first World Cup Semifinal between France and Spain.
Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe!
💣 JORDAN WALKER: HOME RUN DERBY CHAMPION
The Long Shot Delivers
The final: Walker beats hometown hero Kyle Schwarber in Philadelphia — with SIX CONSECUTIVE HOME RUNS to close it out, including the magenta bonus ball.
The scene: "The crowd was booing and getting on Jordan Walker — then he just delivered. The moment was incredible."
✅ CASHED: Round 1 OVER 74.5 home runs — "Congratulations to all who tailed. It was clear the sportsbooks didn't know how to price the new format."
The New Format: A Winner
Scott: "I loved it. 20 swings, no clock, no bracket until round two. I was concerned it would drag without a time limit, but the night moved well. I wish it was the normal 10 outs, but this was a really good way to do the derby."
The Magenta Ball Mystery
The quirk: Homer on your final swing, you keep going — but with a discolored bonus ball. NOBODY homered on it until the finals.
Scott: "The color change actually hurt the hitters. You're tracking a regular baseball for 20 swings, then suddenly you have to change your eye for a colored ball — you don't pick up the seams as well. Only the guys with a THIRD look at it (Schwarber and Walker in the finals) hit it."
How the Field Fared
| Player | Result |
|---|---|
| Jordan Walker | 🏆 CHAMPION (was +600) |
| Kyle Schwarber | Runner-up — "put on a show" |
| Junior Caminero | Great round 1, faded in round 2 |
| Bryce Harper | Out in round 1 — "a little too tense" |
⚾ TONIGHT: ALL-STAR GAME
The Trout Moment
The news: Mike Trout will LEAD OFF for the American League.
Scott: "Trout is from South Jersey — he's pretty much a Philly guy. There have been trade rumors for YEARS. The Phillies crowd loves Mike Trout, they WANT Mike Trout. When he's announced to lead off, that ovation is going to be an incredible moment."
The Game
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| National League | -136 |
| American League | +116 |
| Total | 7.5 (over -122) |
Starters: Cristopher Sanchez (NL) vs Dylan Cease (AL)
Scott's lean: "It's a hitters ballpark. I think over 7.5 is the play for me — that's my strong lean."
⚽ WORLD CUP SEMIFINAL: FRANCE vs SPAIN
The TRUE Championship?
Brad Thomas: "These are easily, by margin, the two best teams in the world — team 1A and team 1B. The margin between France and Spain is much closer than the margin between England and Argentina. The winner of this, if they stay healthy, will go on to win the World Cup."
The Odds (To Qualify)
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| France | -150 |
| Spain | +128 |
Brad's position: France draw-no-bet at -140 when lines opened (now -165). "I got a really good price."
Scott: "Am I too much of a sucker for saying -150 is a GIFT on France? I want to load up."
The Tactical Battle
Brad: "We haven't seen this French team concede possession all tournament — and it's gonna be the inverse. Spain will dominate the ball, play tiki-taka, death by a thousand cuts. Can France stay patient? Can they be clinical on the break? If they're turning the ball over, Spain will capitalize."
The Mbappé quote: Asked if this is the best French team ever, he said no — "It's the French team with the most POTENTIAL. You only become the best by winning."
The Deschamps factor: "They want to send him off in his last World Cup with another title. Not many managers win one World Cup. He could win TWO."
The Plays
| Bet | Notes |
|---|---|
| France to qualify -150 | Scott's best bet — "load up" |
| Regulation draw +210 | "I can see nil-nil into extra time" |
| BTTS + Under 3.5 goals | Brad's sicko special — "2-1 either way or 1-1 at a good price" |
Scott: "If Spain gets a goal and it's 1-0, they will NOT try to score the rest of the game."
Spain's tournament: ONE goal conceded all World Cup (vs Belgium in the quarters).
⚽ GOLDEN BOOT: THE CONSOLATION GAME ANGLE
The Race at 8 Goals Each
| Player | Goals | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 8 | -140 |
| Leo Messi | 8 | +145 |
| Harry Kane | 6 | 12/1 |
| Jude Bellingham | 6 | 25/1 |
Scott's Messi Argument
Scott: "If France loses to Spain, I don't think Mbappé plays in the consolation game. But if Argentina loses to England, I STILL think Messi plays in the third-place game. It's his final World Cup — it's ceremonial. Claiming the Golden Boot means something for the legacy. That's why Messi +145 is the better bet."
Brad: "That makes sense. We need Messi in the third-place game getting a hat trick — those games are horrible otherwise."
Updated Tournament Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| France | +140 |
| England | +310 |
| Spain | +320 |
| Argentina | +430 |
📅 Coming Up
Tonight
- MLB All-Star Game — Trout leads off in Philly
Today
- World Cup SEMIFINAL: France vs Spain
Tomorrow
- World Cup SEMIFINAL: England vs Argentina — full preview with Brad
🎁 New Promos Are Live
5 Books. 1 Code. Free Money.
Up to $100 in bonus value at each book with code BETTORDAY
See All Offers →