MLB Trade Deadline & 32 in 32: Jacksonville Jaguars

Scott Seidenberg and Angelo Magliocca recap the MLB Trade Deadline and our 32 in 32 NFL previews continue with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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⚾ DEADLINE FALLOUT WITH ANGELO MAGLIOCCA

(SportsLine / CBS Sports HQ — and a new Bettor Day contributor)

⚾ THE SKUBAL ANGLE NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT

It's Not About the Prospects — It's About the CBA

Angelo: "This is almost like the Dodgers getting in EARLY on Tarik Skubal — because now they can try to extend him and get him grandfathered in before the new CBA. They don't have to deal with any of the new rules and regulations coming after this season. They wouldn't have been able to do that if a competitor signed him."

The missed opportunity: "Some teams weren't thinking about that angle — make it hurt for the Dodgers. Skubal already said he wanted to be a Dodger. Make it so you have to sign him under the NEW CBA after we've had him for the rest of the year. And you get him through the playoffs. The Brewers should have gone for it."

The prediction: "I think they get an extension done rather quickly."

Dodgers: +160 to win the World Series. Yankees second at +600.

⚾ GRADING THE AL EAST DEADLINE

AL East Odds

The Yankees: The Cashman Special

What they got: Luis García Jr., Heliot Ramos. What they didn't get: Mason Miller. A catcher. Any real bullpen reinforcement.

Angelo's stat: "This is the first deadline since 2019 where Cashman hasn't acquired a reliever. That's what they DO every year — grab a random guy off the Rockies, hone in on one pitch, and suddenly he's elite. They did it with Clay Holmes. They didn't do it this year."

Scott's prediction of the presser: "He's going to say 'once we get Aaron Judge back, it's like trading for the best player in baseball. Once we get Stanton back, it's like trading for one of the best power hitters. Once we get Clark Schmidt back, it's like trading for an elite arm.'"

The platoon problem: "They're going to platoon García with Goldschmidt — Goldy vs lefties, García vs righties. Ramos is another platoon bench guy, near-.900 OPS against lefties but he won't see an at-bat against a righty. He doesn't defend well, he's slow. Cashman got platoon help, said the prices were high everywhere else, and decided the injury returns would cover it. The Yankees just did not make moves for RIGHT NOW."

The catching squirm: "Thinking about Ali Sánchez catching big innings in the playoffs already makes me squirm. I think they're serious about Ben Rice catching at least a little."

The Rays: Best Deadline in Baseball

The haul: Freddy Peralta plus Liam Hicks.

Angelo: "Hicks is another bat I can see causing nightmares for the Yankees in the postseason. I can already see him working a big at-bat and getting a big hit somewhere. The Yankees didn't go get a grinder like that — a guy who wears you down."

The Red Sox: Buying for Now

The haul: Adley Rutschman, plus Ranger Suárez back off the IL.

Angelo: "Say what you want about Adley and the decline — he's still a major upgrade. They shipped out Carlos Narváez, who was pretty much a strikeout hole. Now you get switch-hitting flexibility and you can lean on the defense."

🎯 ANGELO'S BET: RAYS TO MAKE THE ALCS (+200)

Angelo: "I think they're going to win the East at this point. I don't think the Yankees' injuries come back as soon as we think — Judge, Stanton, Bellinger. I could see New York floundering and settling for the first or second wild card.

The Rays take the East, get the bye and probably the one seed, then face the worst wild card team out of a bye. You've got to win that one series and you cash 2-to-1. You don't even have to worry about winning the ALCS."

⚾ THE PHILLIES: +450 TO MAKE THE NLCS

The Luis Arraez Addition

Scott: "I've been saying for months Dombrowski would be aggressive. Arraez is a great addition because they needed someone at the top — Trea Turner was not getting it done setting the table."

Scott's concern — the domino defense:

Angelo's fix: "Arraez started 112 games at first base last year and wasn't bad. They may sub him in there and remove the extra moving parts — Harper at first, DH Arraez on a day Schwarber's out, give Stott a day off. It's the Yankees merry-go-round from a couple years ago. They've got 50 games to make it work."

Angelo: "I'm much higher on the Phillies than I was to start the season. Top-end pitching can just roll a team in the playoffs — Wheeler and Sanchez, and suddenly you're up 2-0. Plus Durán at the back end to cut games short."

The catch: "The Braves are probably winning the division — they're up eight. Philly has to come out of the wild card and win a couple of series to cash the +450. I still like it."

🎯 ANGELO'S NICHE MARKET: FIRST PLATE APPEARANCE STRIKEOUTS

Why He Moved Off Pitcher Strikeout Props

Angelo: "The strikeout markets are among the sharpest in baseball betting. They get bet a TON, and over the last couple years they've gotten sharper and pushed up. I like the overs, and this year the numbers all seem maybe one strikeout too high. That forced me to look elsewhere."

How It Works

The market: Listed as "plate appearance" on FanDuel. Lines open once lineups are confirmed — usually 2-3 hours before first pitch.

The method: PLATOON SPLITS.

The prices: +150 to +200 routinely. Angelo's season ROI: ~40%.

Angelo: "Sometimes you could argue it's a negative EV bet — you're betting the exact result of something happening. But the way baseball goes now, these guys strike out more than ever. They get paid for damage, for home runs and driving in runs. Teams do not care about high strikeout numbers, so it's okay to take bigger swings. I think strikeouts are a bit undervalued."

More Angles

• Unfamiliarity: Interleague matchups where a lineup has never seen the pitcher and there's little video.
• Live betting: "These stay up live. If you know Mason Miller is coming in, bet the strikeouts for the batters coming up. Relievers only need a few outs, so they go 100% the whole time."
• Scott's wheels turning: "You can look at a pitcher's numbers the first time through a lineup, and which hitters struggle in their first plate appearance. I can't wait to jump into this market."

Angelo drops 5-7 of these daily in the SportsLine Discord, and will be writing free plays for Bettor Day through the World Series. Find him: @AMagsPicks on Twitter/YouTube, SportsLine and CBSSports.com (Sun/Mon/Tue articles).

🏈 32 IN 32: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Market

Trevor Lawrence: 20/1 MVP. Liam Coen finished 2nd in Coach of the Year voting behind Mike Vrabel.

THE REGRESSION CASE

Last Year's 13 Wins Were Built on Sand

Scott: "Turnover differential is not predictive of future success. I don't see how you replicate that."

The Offensive Questions

• Travis Etienne is gone — Chris Rodriguez takes over (familiar with Coen's system from Kentucky, but oft-injured), so Bhayshul Tuten may get more carries. Expect a more physical running team.
• Multiple tight end sets: Coen wants them (they drafted two TEs). "But how does Trevor Lawrence and the passing game look with more tight ends on the field?"
• Brian Thomas Jr.: Healthy now after a rough, injured second season. "Does he take a step forward and regain his standing as one of the top receivers in the NFL?"
• THE KEY QUESTION — Travis Hunter on offense? "They've already said he's their number one cornerback, so he's starting on defense. But with more tight end sets and a receiver room that already needs snaps — maybe we don't see Hunter play a ton of offense this year."

The Trench Report Read

The loss: All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd signed with Carolina.

Scott: "Decent grades overall — the 10th best trench team. But the MATCHUPS just aren't good. They play a lot of teams that will have the edge on them week to week."

THE PLAY: UNDER 8.5 WINS (plus money)

Scott: "I could see this being a mediocre 8-9 team. That's not a knock — there's talent on this roster. But there's recency bias from last year, and a lot of it was schedule ease and turnover luck. Under 8.5 at plus money is the play."

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32 in 32 This Week

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