CLV Lessons & 32 in 32: Chicago Bears
Scott Seidenberg and Michael Fiddle talk NFL Preseason and Closing Line Value, continue the 32 in 32 previews with the Chicago Bears and the College Football AP Preseason Top 25 is out.
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🚨 DID WE MOVED A MARKET?
Dan Quinn: 12/1 → 3/1
Yesterday's pod: Scott and Mackenzie gave out Dan Quinn at 12/1 to be the first NFL head coach fired.
Later Monday morning: A sportsbook PR email lands announcing Dan Quinn is the NEW FAVORITE at 3/1.
Scott: "For Bettor Day listeners who woke up early and placed the bet — congratulations. We're moving markets here."
Fiddle: "From a CLV perspective it's a no-brainer. Those niche markets are sometimes where you can really attack — study the less talked-about variables and find weird markets. If you're not a big fish betting thousands on games, play into props and smaller markets where the edges are bigger, then grow vertically into the main lines.
And what a quick fall from grace for Quinn. Two years ago with Jayden Daniels' breakout he totally changed the trajectory of that team — he was in the Coach of the Year running. Then injuries, and Washington had the OLDEST team in the league last year despite some young pieces. It shows how quickly the coaching carousel spins."
🎯 THE FOLLOW-UP PLAY: ZAC TAYLOR 9/1
Fiddle: "Zac Taylor could be the one — the Bengals always start slow. If they start slow again in a year they're projected to have that bounce-back season, I could see it being him. If you missed the Quinn play, or you got it and want to secure the portfolio, that's who I'd go with now."
Current board: Quinn (favorite), Todd Bowles, Aaron Glenn, Zac Taylor 9/1
Scott: "Quinn at 12/1 and Zac Taylor at 9/1 — I'll take that portfolio."
🏈 PRESEASON WEEK 2: THE LINES ARE UP
⭐ Both Teams Off a Win (Favorites 24-12 SU, 21-15 ATS)
| Game | Line |
|---|---|
| Ravens at Vikings | MIN -3 (home) |
| Bears at Bengals | CIN -1.5 (home) |
⭐ The Embarrassed Dogs (21-14 ATS, edge in the SECOND half)
| Team | Line This Week |
|---|---|
| Texans | +1.5 home vs Raiders (Thursday) |
| Packers | +6.5 at Denver |
| Panthers | +3.5 at Jacksonville |
| Falcons | +2.5 at Indy |
| Dolphins | +2.5 home vs Giants |
| Eagles | +1.5 at New England |
| Seahawks | +2.5 at Tennessee |
| Favored at home vs Buffalo — skip | |
| Favored on the road — skip |
Scott: "A lot of play-on dogs — but maybe second half, or live in-game if the first half doesn't go their way."
📚 THE TRENDS DEBATE
Fiddle: "I'm not much of a trends bettor. When those statistics get thrown at me it doesn't speak loudly — the teams are different, the situations are different. But there's probably truth behind some situational trends. The real question is whether the trend has been PRICED IN or PRICED OUT. If you can evaluate that, trends become viable."
The Alt Win Total Market Is Nuked
Fiddle: "Yahoo asked me to write up alt win totals. I like that market — mathematically these don't follow normal binomial distribution, so priors can be way off. Look at last year: the top ten healthiest teams all made the playoffs. The Lions went 6-11 after 15-2. There are serious regression teams just from attrition.
So I looked at the odds — and everything was priced out. Over or under on pretty much every team was sold way short of where it should be. I went back to Yahoo and asked to do season-long player props instead. There's no sound advice I could give in that market."
🎓 THE CLV MASTERCLASS
The Steam Moves Went 0-6 — Does It Change Anything?
Fiddle: "My toxic gambling thought is 'well then the next one HAS to win.' I know that's not true. In reality these are small edges that stack. The next CLV move probably still has a 5% edge — a 55% win rate on a 50/50 priced bet. There's still a 45% chance it loses. Ignore the small sample and stack the small edges. I'd trust preseason CLV moving forward and still front the steam."
🔑 WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU GET NEGATIVE CLV
Fiddle: "Mathematically, the vast majority of the time, the best thing to do is NOTHING.
- Cash out: You're taking a -10% cash out when your negative EV is only -4%.
- Hedge: You're locking in -5%, or buying an alt number that creates a no-win middle at -7%. You're better off riding an all-or-nothing -4% EV ticket.
- Live betting off it: If you had +2.5 that closed +3.5 but they're up 7-0 after a quarter and now they're -1.5 — your bet is GOOD now. It's better to be plus CLV after the first quarter than before kickoff, because you have more information. You'd be dumping something good — and paying a higher live-market hold to do it."
⭐ THE ONE SMART EXIT: CASH-OUT POLICY ARBITRAGE
Fiddle: "There are sportsbooks that allow full value cash-outs if the number hasn't moved. Others give you -2% immediately even at the same number.
Know your book's cash-out policy. If the number is identical at two books but one offers full-value cash-out — place the bet at THAT book. Then if you see the market moving against you at other books but it hasn't moved at yours yet, take the full-value cash-out."
Scott's version: "I have a screen on my desk dedicated to the odds board. When I see the screen flash, I go straight to the Bettor Day odds board and look at the derivative markets — maybe the game moneyline moved but the halftime moneyline hasn't yet."
Fiddle's closing thought: "If a line never moved against you, that would also mean it could never move FOR you — which would mean sports betting is solved and there are no edges. Minus CLV bets are inevitable. Knowing how to optimally handle those moments is the job."
🏈 32 IN 32: CHICAGO BEARS
The Market
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Win total | 9.5 (UNDER -125) |
| Alt: under 7.5 | +250 |
| Make playoffs | +116 |
| Miss playoffs | -136 |
| NFC North | +305 |
⭐ THE PLAY: UNDER 9.5 (-125)
Fiddle: "They had the number one net turnover differential last season — most defensive takeaways, fewest offensive giveaways. Turnovers regress to the mean and are not sticky. Tipped passes, fumble bounces — this is a game of inches. I don't think that's maintainable.
Add the harder first-place schedule, more film on Ben Johnson, and now the injuries: Luther Burden has a groin injury, and Coby Bryant — the safety they brought in — is out four to six months. You can overcome some injuries, but once they cluster you're in trouble.
People ask how I can be low on Chicago with Caleb and Ben Johnson. It's against market prices, this season, this schedule, these early injuries. On a five-year outlook they'll be great as the division regresses around them. This just isn't the year to buy."
On the alt under 7.5 (+250): "No — because of the binomial distribution, it should be way higher than that. You'd have to get lucky with injuries breaking your way."
🎯 THE SCHEDULE SPOT: FADE THE BEARS IN DECEMBER
The sequence: at Miami → at Buffalo → home vs Green Bay (Christmas)
Scott's handicap: "Everyone knows about Miami and Jacksonville's home field edge early in the season — heat, humidity, and in Miami the way the stadium bakes the road team in the sun. But I love betting Miami and Jacksonville at home LATE in the season against cold weather teams.
You leave frigid Chicago in December and arrive in South Beach and it's 80 degrees — it's natural for your body to go into vacation mode. Then the next week you go from Miami to depressing cold Orchard Park. Then you come home on a short week for Christmas Friday against Green Bay."
The line: Bears -1.5 on Christmas. Scott: "Give me Packers in a teaser. Plus seven and a half. Find me the dance partner."
Fiddle's structure idea: "The market probably won't properly bake in the travel situation on look-aheads. You could three-week parlay this and fade the Bears three weeks in a row — the current week against Miami plus the look-ahead lines."
📐 A TEASER NOTE
Scott: "People get mad when I do the Fezzik math lesson, but: don't bet two bets when you only need to bet one. If you like a team to win, just bet the moneyline. Don't bet a -250 moneyline at -280."
Fiddle: "And if you love the teaser math, the root of it is Stanford Wong's Sharp Sports Betting — that's where the term Wong teaser comes from. But a lot of the qualifying triggers get glossed over. You don't want to do it on a dog up to +7.5 when the total is north of 52 for example — that no longer qualifies. In content space, very few people actually read the book and then they see any +1.5 and say 'Wong teaser it.' No — that doesn't fit the criteria."
🏈 THE AP PRESEASON TOP 25 IS OUT
| Rank | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State |
| 2 | Oregon |
| 3 | Georgia |
| 4 | Notre Dame |
| 5 | Texas |
| 6 | Indiana (defending champs) |
| 7 | Miami |
| 8 | Texas A&M |
| 9 | Ole Miss |
| 10 | Oklahoma |
The Stat
No preseason AP No. 1 has finished the season at No. 1 since Alabama in 2017.
Ohio State is +550 to win the national championship.
And Speaking of Alabama...
For the first time in 18 years, the Crimson Tide are NOT in the AP preseason top 25.
📅 Coming Up
- Wednesday: David Bearman / 32 in 32: Detroit Lions
- Thursday: AJ Hoffman / 32 in 32: Green Bay Packers
- Thursday: The BettorDay Football Show, 2 PM ET on YouTube and X @better_day (episode 1 is up now!)
Fiddle's content: Season-long player prop article for Yahoo posting today (@FiddlesPicks). Live streams Mon/Wed/Fri on Twitter and YouTube — and he's shifting the show to a prediction-market lens: market making, liquidity, and reading market signals. "That's where most of my volume is now, and I keep my content authentic to what I'm actually doing."
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