NFL Futures Strategy & 32 in 32: LA Chargers

Scott Seidenberg and Michael Fiddle talk NFL Future's betting strategy. Plus our 32 in 32 previews continue with the LA Chargers.

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FUTURES PHILOSOPHY

Michael Fiddle joins the pod every Tuesday all season — Monday Night Football recaps and early-week CLV hunting.

The Bankroll Discipline

Fiddle: "I'm betting less than I normally would at this time, because I've gotten into the mindset of churning bankrolls. I want shorter turnaround stuff.

When I was a high-level hobbyist, my buddy and I would each put up a thousand dollars every year and pick off every awards market we thought had value — most catches, most passing yards, MVP, OPOY — stuff we wanted to root for. I've cut all that noise out. Now I only do things I think are plus EV, because I want that bankroll for MLB, WNBA, and NBA."

THE BAROMETER: BEAT THE S&P

Fiddle: "I'm super analytical about this. If I'm betting a future, I'm processing it against the return on SPY. I want a higher ROI than just investing in the S&P 500. That's my barometer."

WHY WIN TOTALS

Fiddle: "Win totals are what I play most because they have the lowest theoretical market hold. You'll see -110 on each side — a sub-5% hold. That's the book's rake. It's like choosing the roulette wheel with two zeros instead of three — go where it's most favorable to the player.

I also like them because they repopulate every week, so you can constantly hedge, double down, create a middle, or pivot."

The prediction market wrinkle: "That mattered more before. It used to be hard to hedge MVP — you're in a great spot but the next best options are four guys you'd otherwise consider. Now you can hedge with 'no' on a prediction market on the actual guy you've gained value on. And those holds are tiny: Stafford at 7% MVP with 94% no is a one-cent split."

🎯 FIDDLE'S WIN TOTAL CARD

⭐ THE STRONGEST PLAY: BEARS UNDER 9.5

The turnover case: Chicago was number one in fewest offensive turnovers, number one in defensive takeaways, AND number one in net turnover differential.

Fiddle: "Year over year, turnovers are not a sticky stat. They're a game of inches — the deflection goes the wrong way, the fumble bounces the other direction. Leaning into regression to the mean there is really important.

They play a first-place schedule this year. There's more film out on the Ben Johnson offense and how Caleb is going. I think Caleb got lucky to not have a lot of interceptions last year. If the turnovers balance out and the schedule is harder, they're in for trouble.

A lot of people are high on the Bears because of flashy skill player names — but last season came against one of the easiest schedules in the league, and that takes a strong turn. I'm high on the Lions, high on the Packers, and the Vikings will be better if they handle the quarterback situation. That division is going to be really hard."

THE CORRELATION PLAYBOOK

1. Parlay Correlated Division Win Totals

Fiddle: "Because I was on the Lions over AND the Bears under, I went around trying to parlay them. If you get the correlation right, find a place where you can parlay two win totals, plug the odds into a generic parlay calculator, and see what correlation tax you're paying. Two -110s completely uncorrelated should spit out +264.

Get best price in market on both — or best on one, second best on the other. I would NOT reach and do this at a book with the worst price on both AND a big correlation tax."

2. If You're Under, Go ALT Under

Fiddle: "The rare time I go into alt derivative win totals is when I'm going under. If you're already low on a team, you're probably not baking in catastrophic injury. This is a game of attrition — I think the top ten healthiest teams all made the playoffs last year. The Lions were the use case going the other way; they ended 6-11 dealing with so many injuries.

So if you like Bears under 9.5, shouldn't you also play under 7.5 or 6.5? What if Caleb gets hurt? The market prices injury risk in, but not much."

Scott: "That's exactly what Mackenzie said yesterday about the Commanders — go alt under 5.5. And more times than not, when teams miss their win total, it's not by half a win — it's by two."

Fiddle: "The average margin has been something like 2.7 wins off the win total."

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🏈 32 IN 32: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Market

Justin Herbert: 10/1 MVP | 25.5 passing TDs

Trench Report: 4th MOST DIFFICULT trench strength of schedule — "in the majority of their games, they are outmanned on one line or the other."

THE MIKE McDANIEL EFFECT

Fiddle: "Very exciting to bring him over — though the offensive line getting healthy again is probably the biggest upgrade. Looking at how McDaniel used skill players in Miami: a lot of quick out routes, plays into the flats, sweeps on handoffs."

The Play It Points To

Fiddle: "Omarion Hampton in a touchdowns market is where I'd most look — look at how a guy like Raheem Mostert, a pretty similar build, did in the Dolphins years."

Scott's extension: "More receptions from the running backs. And that leads me toward the over on Herbert's passing touchdowns (25.5) — maybe not downfield throws, but a lot of quick throws. On a week-to-week basis I'd be looking at Herbert total completions."

⭐ FIDDLE'S BEST BET: QUENTIN JOHNSTON OVER 625.5 RECEIVING YARDS

The role case: "He's truly the only field stretcher among this receiver group. Keenan Allen remains unsigned. Ladd McConkey and Arondae Gatson are going to dominate in the flats, and the backs will eat in the passing game. Johnston has the clear defined role."

The math on injury risk: "There's a common misconception that I hate overs on season-long props. But factor in what the injury cost is priced at. 625 over 17 games is 36 yards a game. There's already a baked-in 'what if he misses four games' — at 625 over 13 games you're still sub-50 yards a game for a field stretcher who's going to have 135-yard games when he hits two deep balls."

The Win Total Verdict: PASS

Fiddle: "The win total market is pretty spot on — I don't have any edge in either direction. I ran a top-down check: where are the sharper books pricing this versus the recreational books? No actionable directional edge either way using Circa and Pinnacle."

📅 WHAT TUESDAYS WILL BE

Fiddle: "Most of my stuff is actioned before Wednesday. I'm not waiting on Sunday liquidity. I forecast how injury reports will go, how markets will shape, what becomes the sharp side, where liquidity is developing, and the value of each point.

Last year the NFL market was incredibly sharp — if you got CLV, you did really well. Two years ago it was the opposite. Hopefully this year finds the middle. But if you bet early and close well, you should have a 7-12% ROI. That's the goal for us on Tuesdays."

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