CFB Thursday/Friday Best Bets & 32 in 32: LA Rams

Scott Seidenberg and AJ Hoffman preview tonight's Week 1 slate in College Football with leans and Best Bets. Plus our 32 in 32 previews continue with the Los Angeles Rams.

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🏈 THE WEEK ZERO DEBATE

Is Playing First an Advantage — or a Disadvantage?

AJ takes the contrarian side: "The common thought is that playing in week zero is an advantage. I'm not sure I see it that way.

It's good to hold your cards to your vest and not show exactly what your offense is going to do — you're giving the other team film. While people think 'great, they've got a game under their belt, they know what it's like to be hitting' — I'd rather be on the other side and know what you've put on the table.

If your opponent has film and you don't, I don't see how there can't be an advantage."

The added arguments: "Every time you play a football game, your body deteriorates — you lose a guy, somebody's ankle gets stepped on. And there's a mental thing: the first game of the season just feels special. There's added motivation."

The USC caveat: "Some people have made a judgment on USC based on the second half of that game — which was third-string players. I don't know what you can really take away from that."

The Counter-Data (via Jared Smith)

Since 2023: teams that played in week zero and are FAVORED the next week against a team playing its first game are 8-0 straight up, 6-2 ATS, covering by nearly 10 points.

This week, only two teams qualify: USC and Memphis.

(Note on Memphis: Market has steamed a lot since their opening win)

🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 1: TONIGHT'S CARD

⭐ AJ'S BEST BET: IDAHO +34.5 AT UTAH

Total: 57.5

AJ's honest self-own: "Maybe I'm talking out of two sides of my mouth here — my best bet today is a team that played in week zero. But they're not favored."

The Idaho case: "They played last week — a heartbreaker against Cal Poly — but this was a PLAYOFF TEAM last year. They return four of five offensive line starters with something like 80 combined starts.

And while I say recruiting doesn't matter for the big programs — for a place like Idaho, recruiting REALLY matters. They got the highest ranked recruiting class in their HISTORY and the second best 2025 class in the FCS, period. Seventeen three-star guys — for an FCS school, that's a big deal.

Idaho is one of only three FCS teams with multiple wins over FBS teams in the last two years — they beat Nevada 33-6 in 2023 and Wyoming 17-13 in 2024."

The Utah case against: "Brand new coaching staff with a lot to plug in. And I always ask: what's on deck? Utah has ARKANSAS — an SEC program — next week. What's the purpose of running it up?

And what has Utah dealt with the last couple of years? INJURIES. Why would you have your starters out any longer than necessary when you've been snake-bitten losing key guys? I think Utah wants to get in, get the job done. Idaho hangs long enough."

⭐ GEORGIA TECH -6.5 vs COLORADO (ESPN) + THE OVER 50.5

The Continuity Argument

AJ: "I like Tech here, and the number's just right — it's a little scary that there hasn't been more Tech money coming in.

Deion has basically a brand new team. You're starting six or seven transfers on offense, every starter on defense is new. Eighteen of your twenty-two starters are new guys. That's pretty wild.

Georgia Tech is replacing an offensive coordinator and brought in transfers of their own — but it's NIGHT AND DAY on continuity. They return a lot of production on defense and added from the portal, and they got one of the top backs in the portal in Justice Haynes — an instant boost.

Colorado was so bad against the run last year — but again, all new defense. How do you determine that?

I like Tech. I'm not playing anything over seven — but at 6.5, that's the way I'd go."

The Total

AJ: "OVER. A brand new defense out there for the first time — eleven guys who have never played together. I don't care how much you've practiced, there are going to be communication issues. I think we see quite a few points."

Scott: "That might be my favorite lean for tonight."

RUTGERS -29.5 vs UMASS — UNDER 51.5

Scott: "Anytime I see a Rutgers game with a total this high, it makes me want to go under. Doesn't this feel like 38-0 or 42-0 at the most?"

AJ: "You've got to be a diehard to want to sit down and watch this. UMass is pretty dreadful — 0-12 last year, about as disastrous as it gets. But Rutgers didn't average thirty points a game last year either.

To me this is like a 28 or 30 to nothing game. And if UMass scores just ONE touchdown, it's almost impossible for them not to cover. Under and the dog are my leans."

(The correlation reminder: favorites-and-overs, dogs-and-unders.)

🔍 THE HUGE UNDERDOG RESEARCH: MISSOURI -54.5 vs ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

Total: 61.5

The Look-Ahead Argument

AJ: "Missouri has higher expectations than maybe they should — a good recruiting class, though I don't know how important recruiting classes are anymore. It's more about the portal. How often do freshmen have a major impact at this point?

But while Kansas isn't great, Missouri-Kansas is a MASSIVE rivalry game, on the road, and I'd imagine Mizzou has it circled as a statement game. I don't know how much they're willing to show against Arkansas-Pine Bluff."

⚠️ THE SCREEN THAT SAYS STAY AWAY

Dogs of 50+ points with a total between 60 and 62.

The result: 0-6 ATS — and EVERY game went OVER.

AJ: "What you've said is enough. I'm staying away. I've got no business betting this game and no interest in watching it. Clearly Mizzou can name their number — I just don't see much motivation with Kansas on deck."

📊 TOMORROW: EASTERN MICHIGAN -3 vs SAN JOSE STATE

Total: 56.5 — and both teams played in week zero.

The New Blended Trench Report

Scott: "I didn't want to give 2026 data off one game as the be-all end-all. So I blended it. On BettorDay.com you'll now see 'projection' next to most teams' names, and a 50% mark with a one-game note — meaning we're blending game one 50/50 with the preseason projection."

The read: "Eastern Michigan has the trench advantage — largest edges in pass blocking and run defense. Not enough to play a rushing prop, but with the trench edge, home field, and a San Jose State team coming from the West Coast after an uphill, fast-paced game against USC — laying the points might be a play."

AJ Goes the Other Way: The OVER

AJ: "San Jose State built confidence last week, at least offensively — they scored kind of at will in the second half. And I'd imagine USC's second and third string is probably better than Eastern Michigan's starters on defense.

One thing I know about Ken Niumatalolo — he's coached a lot of teams without high expectations and he's good at getting the most out of a little.

I think Eastern Michigan wins, but I don't want to play them as a favorite of more than a field goal. If it comes below three I'd be interested. I like the over — and it wouldn't surprise me if San Jose State is in this at the end."

(Scott's counter on the USC second half: "What was the motivation in an empty stadium on a hot day when you're already winning?")

🏈 32 IN 32: LOS ANGELES RAMS

The Market

Scott: "You'd think the shortest Super Bowl price on the board would have a win total higher than 11.5. It goes to show how difficult that division is."

AJ: The Talent Justifies It, The Price Doesn't

AJ: "I've got no interest in betting them to win a Super Bowl. They're an older team. Stafford is one of the elder statesmen — though he's stayed healthy and just won MVP. Aaron Donald hasn't played in a couple of years and is an older guy. And are we certain Puka plays all 17 games with the weird off-field stuff this offseason?

They're justifiably the favorite. I just don't think 5/1 has any value — because they play in a division that might have three of the five best teams in the NFC if San Francisco ever stays healthy.

And this is by far the best coaching division in the NFL. McDonald, Shanahan, McVay — there's brilliance all over that thing. The talent justifies them being the top team in the market. But that talent is going to play a bunch of OTHER talent all season. That's why the win total is lower than you typically see for a favorite."

The verdict: "I'd be more interested in the win total OVER than the 5/1. I can't imagine this being a 10-7 team with their talent, barring a Stafford injury. And Fezzik will tell you — Super Bowl futures have so much vig it's hard to find real value."

On the division (-105): "Gun to my head — yes. They could have and probably should have won it last year, and a second-place schedule instead of a first-place schedule helps. But that division fascinates me. I don't have a great feel for who the best team is."

⭐ THE BEST BET, RESTATED: EAGLES +3 (WEEK 4, CAESARS)

The schedule: Melbourne → home Monday night vs the Giants (mini-bye) → at Denver → cross-country to Philadelphia for a 1 PM ET kickoff.

The stat: Since 2021, teams on the road the week after playing at Denver are 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS.

The trench angle: "The Rams are #1 in my Trench Report — and the Eagles are #2."

🔄 AJ'S PUSHBACK

AJ: "The Eagles are on a short week that game — they play Monday night in Chicago on the road. So any rest advantage is kind of negated.

I'd normally say playing at Mile High the week before is a disadvantage — but I think that full extra day is probably an advantage for the Rams. At worst it evens out. And I'm not high on the Eagles either, so I'm not rushing to throw money on them four weeks in.

That said — if you're a person who cares most about getting the right number, and a lot of people are and I don't blame you, you're probably right that it's not three on game day."

🇦🇺 WEEK 1 IN MELBOURNE: RAMS -3.5 vs 49ERS

Scott: "I think the Rams roll. They sent team people to Melbourne to TEST the travel, they're flying as late as possible, playing, and getting out. The 49ers are staying there days early to acclimate. The Rams did this in London and blew out Jacksonville. The body clock study is a reason I like them."

AJ: "I generally agree. Although — we've never seen a game in Australia before. Crazy things might happen. The ball might spin the opposite way. I don't even know."

📅 Coming Up

TODAY

• 🎬 The Bettor Day Football Show — 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT on YouTube and X @Bettor_Day. Duck's college football plays, Fezzik's released CFB positions and more. Join the chat.

NEXT THURSDAY

• AJ returns for Thursday Night Football — Rams vs 49ers, currently LA -3.5, total 48.5 — with a same game parlay. "It's going to be a blast."

📊 Member Note

Premium members already have several plays out for this weekend as we try to stay ahead of the line moves. Insider gets the Trench Reports — now running the blended model for college football.

See both tiers →

The Bettor Day app is now available on BOTH Apple and Google Play