> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Thursday, September 3rd, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/thursday-september-3rd-2026/ - Published: 2026-09-03T10:00:45.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-03T10:00:44.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## CFB Thursday/Friday Best Bets & 32 in 32: LA Rams *Scott Seidenberg and AJ Hoffman preview tonight's Week 1 slate in College Football with leans and Best Bets. Plus our 32 in 32 previews continue with the Los Angeles Rams.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) ## 🏈 THE WEEK ZERO DEBATE ### Is Playing First an Advantage — or a Disadvantage? **AJ takes the contrarian side:** "The common thought is that playing in week zero is an advantage. **I'm not sure I see it that way.** **It's good to hold your cards to your vest and not show exactly what your offense is going to do — you're giving the other team film.** While people think 'great, they've got a game under their belt, they know what it's like to be hitting' — **I'd rather be on the other side and know what you've put on the table.** **If your opponent has film and you don't, I don't see how there can't be an advantage.**" **The added arguments:** "**Every time you play a football game, your body deteriorates** — you lose a guy, somebody's ankle gets stepped on. And there's a mental thing: **the first game of the season just feels special.** There's added motivation." **The USC caveat:** "**Some people have made a judgment on USC based on the second half of that game — which was third-string players.** I don't know what you can really take away from that." --- ### The Counter-Data (via Jared Smith) **Since 2023: teams that played in week zero and are FAVORED the next week against a team playing its first game are 8-0 straight up, 6-2 ATS, covering by nearly 10 points.** **This week, only two teams qualify: USC and Memphis.** *(Note on Memphis: Market has steamed a lot since their opening win)* --- # 🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 1: TONIGHT'S CARD --- ## ⭐ AJ'S BEST BET: IDAHO +34.5 AT UTAH **Total: 57.5** **AJ's honest self-own:** "**Maybe I'm talking out of two sides of my mouth here** — my best bet today is a team that played in week zero. **But they're not favored.**" **The Idaho case:** "They played last week — **a heartbreaker against Cal Poly — but this was a PLAYOFF TEAM last year.** They return **four of five offensive line starters** with something like 80 combined starts. And while I say recruiting doesn't matter for the big programs — **for a place like Idaho, recruiting REALLY matters. They got the highest ranked recruiting class in their HISTORY and the second best 2025 class in the FCS, period. Seventeen three-star guys — for an FCS school, that's a big deal.** **Idaho is one of only three FCS teams with multiple wins over FBS teams in the last two years** — they beat Nevada 33-6 in 2023 and Wyoming 17-13 in 2024." **The Utah case against:** "**Brand new coaching staff** with a lot to plug in. And I always ask: **what's on deck? Utah has ARKANSAS — an SEC program — next week.** What's the purpose of running it up? **And what has Utah dealt with the last couple of years? INJURIES.** Why would you have your starters out any longer than necessary when you've been snake-bitten losing key guys? **I think Utah wants to get in, get the job done. Idaho hangs long enough.**" --- ## ⭐ GEORGIA TECH -6.5 vs COLORADO (ESPN) + THE OVER 50.5 ### The Continuity Argument **AJ:** "**I like Tech here, and the number's just right** — it's a little scary that there hasn't been more Tech money coming in. **Deion has basically a brand new team.** You're starting six or seven transfers on offense, **every starter on defense is new. Eighteen of your twenty-two starters are new guys. That's pretty wild.** Georgia Tech is replacing an offensive coordinator and brought in transfers of their own — **but it's NIGHT AND DAY on continuity.** They return a lot of production on defense and added from the portal, and they got **one of the top backs in the portal in Justice Haynes — an instant boost.** Colorado was so bad against the run last year — **but again, all new defense. How do you determine that?** **I like Tech. I'm not playing anything over seven — but at 6.5, that's the way I'd go.**" ### The Total **AJ:** "**OVER.** A brand new defense out there for the first time — **eleven guys who have never played together.** I don't care how much you've practiced, **there are going to be communication issues. I think we see quite a few points.**" **Scott: "That might be my favorite lean for tonight."** --- ## RUTGERS -29.5 vs UMASS — UNDER 51.5 **Scott:** "Anytime I see a Rutgers game with a total this high, it makes me want to go under. **Doesn't this feel like 38-0 or 42-0 at the most?**" **AJ:** "**You've got to be a diehard to want to sit down and watch this.** UMass is pretty dreadful — 0-12 last year, about as disastrous as it gets. **But Rutgers didn't average thirty points a game last year either.** To me this is like a **28 or 30 to nothing** game. **And if UMass scores just ONE touchdown, it's almost impossible for them not to cover.** Under and the dog are my leans." *(The correlation reminder: favorites-and-overs, dogs-and-unders.)* --- ## 🔍 THE HUGE UNDERDOG RESEARCH: MISSOURI -54.5 vs ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF **Total: 61.5** ### The Look-Ahead Argument **AJ:** "Missouri has **higher expectations than maybe they should** — a good recruiting class, though **I don't know how important recruiting classes are anymore. It's more about the portal. How often do freshmen have a major impact at this point?** **But while Kansas isn't great, Missouri-Kansas is a MASSIVE rivalry game, on the road, and I'd imagine Mizzou has it circled as a statement game. I don't know how much they're willing to show against Arkansas-Pine Bluff.**" ### ⚠️ THE SCREEN THAT SAYS STAY AWAY **Dogs of 50+ points with a total between 60 and 62.** **The result: 0-6 ATS — and EVERY game went OVER.** | Year | Result | | ---- | -------------------------------------- | | 2024 | Arkansas 70-0 over Arkansas-Pine Bluff | | 2023 | LSU 72-10 over Grambling | | 2019 | Alabama 66-3 over Western Carolina | | — | Florida State 77-6 | | — | BYU 70-6 over Wagner | | 2013 | Troy 66-3 | **AJ:** "**What you've said is enough. I'm staying away.** I've got no business betting this game and no interest in watching it. **Clearly Mizzou can name their number — I just don't see much motivation with Kansas on deck.**" --- ## 📊 TOMORROW: EASTERN MICHIGAN -3 vs SAN JOSE STATE **Total: 56.5** — and **both teams played in week zero.** ### The New Blended Trench Report **Scott:** "I didn't want to give 2026 data off one game as the be-all end-all. **So I blended it.** On BettorDay.com you'll now see **'projection'** next to most teams' names, and **a 50% mark with a one-game note** — meaning we're blending game one 50/50 with the preseason projection." **The read:** "**Eastern Michigan has the trench advantage** — largest edges in pass blocking and run defense. **Not enough to play a rushing prop**, but with the trench edge, home field, and a San Jose State team coming from the West Coast after an uphill, fast-paced game against USC — **laying the points might be a play.**" ### AJ Goes the Other Way: The OVER **AJ:** "**San Jose State built confidence last week, at least offensively** — they scored kind of at will in the second half. And I'd imagine **USC's second and third string is probably better than Eastern Michigan's starters on defense.** One thing I know about **Ken Niumatalolo** — he's coached a lot of teams without high expectations and **he's good at getting the most out of a little.** **I think Eastern Michigan wins, but I don't want to play them as a favorite of more than a field goal.** If it comes below three I'd be interested. **I like the over — and it wouldn't surprise me if San Jose State is in this at the end.**" *(Scott's counter on the USC second half: "What was the motivation in an empty stadium on a hot day when you're already winning?")* --- # 🏈 32 IN 32: LOS ANGELES RAMS ## The Market | Market | Line | | -------------- | -------------------- | | **Super Bowl** | **+500 (FAVORITE)** | | **Win total** | **11.5** (over -130) | | NFC West | \-105 | **Scott:** "You'd think the shortest Super Bowl price on the board would have a win total higher than 11.5\. **It goes to show how difficult that division is.**" --- ## AJ: The Talent Justifies It, The Price Doesn't **AJ:** "**I've got no interest in betting them to win a Super Bowl.** They're an older team. Stafford is one of the elder statesmen — though he's stayed healthy and just won MVP. Aaron Donald hasn't played in a couple of years and is an older guy. **And are we certain Puka plays all 17 games with the weird off-field stuff this offseason?** **They're justifiably the favorite. I just don't think 5/1 has any value** — because they play in a division that might have **three of the five best teams in the NFC** if San Francisco ever stays healthy. **And this is by far the best coaching division in the NFL.** McDonald, Shanahan, McVay — **there's brilliance all over that thing. The talent justifies them being the top team in the market. But that talent is going to play a bunch of OTHER talent all season. That's why the win total is lower than you typically see for a favorite.**" **The verdict:** "**I'd be more interested in the win total OVER than the 5/1.** I can't imagine this being a 10-7 team with their talent, barring a Stafford injury. **And Fezzik will tell you — Super Bowl futures have so much vig it's hard to find real value.**" **On the division (-105):** "**Gun to my head — yes.** They could have and probably should have won it last year, **and a second-place schedule instead of a first-place schedule helps.** But that division fascinates me. **I don't have a great feel for who the best team is.**" --- ## ⭐ THE BEST BET, RESTATED: EAGLES +3 (WEEK 4, CAESARS) **The schedule:** Melbourne → home Monday night vs the Giants (mini-bye) → **at Denver** → **cross-country to Philadelphia for a 1 PM ET kickoff.** **The stat:** Since 2021, **teams on the road the week after playing at Denver are 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS.** **The trench angle:** "The Rams are #1 in my Trench Report — **and the Eagles are #2.**" ### 🔄 AJ'S PUSHBACK **AJ:** "**The Eagles are on a short week that game — they play Monday night in Chicago on the road.** So any rest advantage is kind of negated. I'd normally say playing at Mile High the week before is a disadvantage — **but I think that full extra day is probably an advantage for the Rams. At worst it evens out.** And I'm not high on the Eagles either, so I'm not rushing to throw money on them four weeks in. **That said — if you're a person who cares most about getting the right number, and a lot of people are and I don't blame you, you're probably right that it's not three on game day.**" --- ## 🇦🇺 WEEK 1 IN MELBOURNE: RAMS -3.5 vs 49ERS **Scott:** "**I think the Rams roll.** They **sent team people to Melbourne to TEST the travel**, they're flying as late as possible, playing, and getting out. **The 49ers are staying there days early to acclimate.** The Rams did this in London and blew out Jacksonville. **The body clock study is a reason I like them.**" **AJ:** "I generally agree. Although — **we've never seen a game in Australia before. Crazy things might happen. The ball might spin the opposite way. I don't even know.**" --- ## 📅 Coming Up ### TODAY - **🎬 The Bettor Day Football Show** — 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT on [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@BettorDay?ref=bettorday.com) and X [@Bettor\_Day](https://x.com/Bettor%5FDay?ref=bettorday.com). **Duck's college football plays**, Fezzik's released CFB positions and more. Join the chat. ### NEXT THURSDAY - **AJ returns for Thursday Night Football** — **Rams vs 49ers, currently LA -3.5, total 48.5** — with a same game parlay. "It's going to be a blast." --- ## 📊 Member Note **Premium members already have several plays out for this weekend** as we try to stay ahead of the line moves. **Insider** gets the Trench Reports — now running the **blended model** for college football. 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