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# Thursday, September 24th, 2026
- URL: https://www.bettorday.com/thursday-september-24th-2026/
- Published: 2026-09-24T10:00:19.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-24T10:00:18.000Z
- Author: Scott Seidenberg
- Tags: Newsletter

## TNF Preview & Same Game Parlay

*Scott Seidenberg and Brandon Kravitz preview Thursday Night Football between the Falcons and Packers and build a Same Game Parlay. Plus some more QB talk and who can truly beat the Dodgers in the MLB Postseason?*

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# 🏈 IT'S OFFICIAL: JAXSON DART'S SEASON IS OVER

**Scott:** "It was initially thought to not be a big deal. **Then it was a big deal. Now we find out it's multiple ligaments — let's just clean it up and get him ready for the future.**"

---

## Do the Giants Make a Move?

**Brandon:** "**They have to approach this with an open mind.** Jameis clearly is not dialed into the playbook — **he looked LOST on Monday night. That's not what you need from a requisite starter, or even a requisite backup.**

**But the market is not as plush as people make it out to be.** *Just go get Mac Jones.* Of course the talking heads say *go get Shedeur Sanders.* **These teams aren't tripping over themselves to send you their high quality backup quarterbacks. The backup quarterback position is one of the most underrated positions in all of football for exactly this reason.**

The Giants went from ***they might be this year's Patriots*** to now we're talking about **Arch Manning and Dante Moore** and what the future looks like. That's how quickly these things change.

**You saw the look on John Harbaugh's face.** It's not good. He's not a believer — and neither am I in the Winston experience."

---

### 💡 THE NAME TO WATCH: JJ McCARTHY

**Scott:** "Gary Myers, the longtime New York sportswriter, tweeted about **calling the Vikings on JJ McCarthy.** Everyone's negative on him — **but he can run a similar RPO read option offense to what Dart runs.**

**And there's the Harbaugh connection** — Jim loved him at Michigan, **and we know what the Harbaughs are like about swapping players who have relationships with the brothers.**"

---

# 🎲 THREE FUN PROPS

---

## 1\. Jameis Winston: More INTs or TDs? *(INTs -140)*

The current ledger: zero touchdowns, one interception.

**Brandon:** "Mr. 30-30\. **We know he can push on this — it wouldn't be a surprise.** 

**Laying -140 makes me pretty uncomfortable. I'd go counter to popular opinion — I'd take the TOUCHDOWNS. They have the Titans this week, so you should be able to get a couple.**"

**Scott's read on the price: "This book doesn't expect Jameis Winston to be the starter the entire season."**

---

## 2\. Aaron Rodgers Benched at Any Point? *(No -200 / Yes +150)*

**Brandon: "I just don't see it. He's too big a name and too tied in with Mike McCarthy.** And it's not like you're turning to Steve Young **— it's Mason Rudolph. I know folks in Pittsburgh are excited about Drew Allar; he's still fourth on the depth chart.**

**I think it's more likely Rodgers would bench HIMSELF than that McCarthy would bench him.** But he has not looked good. No doubt."

---

## 3\. When Do the Chargers Get Their First Win?

**They're 0-2 and 7.5-point dogs in Orchard Park.**

| Week | Opponent                                     | Odds                |
| ---- | -------------------------------------------- | ------------------- |
| 3    | **at Buffalo**                               | **+300**            |
| 4    | at Seattle                                   | +350                |
| 5    | **vs Denver**                                | **+125 (favorite)** |
| 6+   | at KC, at the Rams, vs Houston, at Baltimore | —                   |

**Brandon: "That's murderers' row."**

**They'll be underdogs in five of the next seven games.**

---

### ⭐ THE SMARTEST BET ON THE BOARD

**Brandon:** "**The dumbest bet you can make today is Chargers to make the playoffs at +240.**

**If you think this team finds their stride and makes the playoffs — just take their MONEYLINE this week at +300\. Because they're not making the playoffs if they lose to the Bills and start 0-3.** The percentages are really against them, even with the expanded field.

**If you're going to jump into this shark-infested water: get me in, get me out as quick as possible. I don't want to drive myself crazy figuring out where an 0-3 team facing the toughest gauntlet in the NFL picks up a win. Just give it to me now.**

**And the Bills defense is a problem right now. If you're going to get right offensively, it's against this Buffalo defense — you just have to figure out how to slow down Josh Allen.**"

---

# 🏈 TONIGHT: FALCONS AT PACKERS

| Market | Line             |
| ------ | ---------------- |
| Spread | **Packers -5.5** |
| Total  | 43.5             |

**Michael Penix makes his 2026 debut.**

---

## The Line Movement

**It was Falcons +7 on Sunday. It's moved a full point and a half.**

**Brandon:** "**And I'm not even sure that's a vote of confidence for Penix. It's more of a slight toward everyone else who has attempted to throw a pass.** I was joking with somebody this week — **they'd be better off just running the Wildcat with Bijan Robinson the way this offense has looked.**

**The Panthers had SIX drives into the red zone, some of which were gifted. The Falcons had NONE in week two.** This is going to be a massive improvement. It's addition by subtraction, even if Penix is just okay, because the quarterback play was so bad."

### ⚠️ The Injury Nobody's Talking About

"**I don't love the AJ Terrell injury — because of all the quarterback noise, it's been lost in the shuffle.** The Packers' offensive line is banged up and Penix is starting; that's garnering the headlines.

**Don't overlook that Terrell is one of the best defensive players they had LEFT. They're already without both edge rushers — Jalon Walker and James Pearce. They'll start CJ Henderson and Mike Hughes on opposite sides. Those are not great cornerbacks.**

**I'd downgrade Atlanta by at least half a point. So I land about where the number is — I can't bet this spread as it sits. I wish I'd gotten the seven earlier in the week. I just didn't have the stomach for it.**"

---

# ⭐ THE SAME GAME PARLAY

## The 3-Leg Baseline: +880

| Leg | Bet                                            |
| --- | ---------------------------------------------- |
| 1   | **Christian Watson OVER 68.5 receiving yards** |
| 2   | **Drake London OVER 5.5 receptions** (+106)    |
| 3   | **Atlanta Falcons MONEYLINE** (+205)           |

## The 4-Leg Version: **+2363**

| 4 | **Bijan Robinson UNDER 77.5 rushing yards** |

---

## Leg 1: Christian Watson — The CLV Note

**Scott:** "**The first bet I made on this game, as soon as I saw the AJ Terrell news, was Christian Watson over his receiving yards — at 62.5\. It's now 68.5.**

**We don't have the same CLV as that early standalone bet. But these same game parlays are not full unit plays.**"

**Brandon:** "**Definitely. The yards are my favorite way to attack it.** 19 total targets, 10 grabs, 188 yards and three touchdowns to start the season. **He's +160 to score. I also looked at longest reception over 25.5** — **but the worry is the O-line is so mangled that unless it's a screen, you need Jordan Love protected for those long receptions, and I'm not confident that happens.**

**The touchdown is probably overpriced. As long as the yards are sub-70, we're getting value on Watson against backup corners who are not all that good.**"

---

## Leg 2: Drake London — The Love Affair

**Scott walked the full Penix-start history from last season:**

| Game               | London's Line                |
| ------------------ | ---------------------------- |
| Week 1 vs Tampa    | **8 catches on 15 targets**  |
| Next               | 3 on 4                       |
| Next               | 5 on 8                       |
| Next               | 8 on 10                      |
| **Out of the bye** | **10 catches on 16 targets** |
| Next               | 4 on 10                      |
| **vs New England** | **9 catches on 14 targets**  |

**"You see the picture I'm painting. Michael Penix LOVES Drake London — and we as sports bettors love that he loves Drake London."**

**Brandon: "His last three starts last season: 119 yards, 104, 118 — with a bunch of catches, all over 5.5\. No problem rubber stamping this. And wide receivers against the Packers this season: 12 catches for 123 yards, which is 20th in the NFL against the position. It's a good matchup.**"

---

## Leg 3: The Falcons — From Points to Moneyline

### 📉 The Trend

**Coming off an overtime game Sunday, playing Thursday against an opponent that did NOT play overtime, as the FAVORITE:**

| Sample         | Record                 |
| -------------- | ---------------------- |
| **Since 2021** | **1-5 SU and ATS**     |
| Since 2016     | **1-6 SU and ATS**     |
| **Since 2012** | **2-10 SU · 1-11 ATS** |

**Scott: "You played overtime on Sunday. Now you're a favorite on Thursday. You don't win. You don't cover. Falcons +5.5 for our third leg."**

### ⭐ Brandon's Upgrade

"**I don't mind it — but I think we should get more juice from the squeeze.**

**If the dam is going to open, it's going to BREAK. If the Falcons are in range late in this game to cover, the Packers are going to be crapping themselves — and there's going to be a swagger and a confidence that carries Atlanta to the finish line.**

**Let's just take the Falcons on the MONEYLINE. Forget the points.**"

---

## Leg 4: The Anti-Correlation

**Scott:** "**If we believe in Penix, how about Bijan Robinson UNDER 77.5 rushing yards?**

**We'd be going against the Falcons, who we think are going to WIN the game with this parlay.**"

**The result: the parlay jumps from +880 to +2363.**

**"That is how you price in an anti-correlation right there. Bijan only has \~60 rushing yards — but he might have \~50 receiving yards — and everything else comes through."**

**Brandon: "I love it. No problem with that. It makes sense to me."**

---

### 📝 The Standalone That Didn't Fit

**Brandon's correlated idea FanDuel wouldn't allow in the SGP: MICHAEL PENIX UNDER 0.5 INTERCEPTIONS.**

"**It's correlated to Drake London playing well and the Falcons winning — you've got to play mistake-free football. His coaches have to be telling him one thing: don't turn that damn ball over.**

**The Falcons are 32nd in the NFL in turnover differential through two games. And Penix has thrown ZERO interceptions in his last five starts. This is not something he's prone to do — a lot of their offense is around the line of scrimmage, look no further than Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson.**

**I'd throw under one pick for Michael Penix.**"

**Play it standalone.**

---

# ⚾ WHO CAN BEAT THE DODGERS?

## The World Series Board

| Team        | Odds     |
| ----------- | -------- |
| **Dodgers** | **+230** |
| Brewers     | +500     |
| Rays        | +800     |
| Yankees     | +850     |
| Guardians   | 12/1     |
| **Red Sox** | **13/1** |

*(The Yankees will be without Aaron Judge for the wild card series.)*

---

## ⭐ BRANDON'S ANSWER: THE RED SOX

"**I don't think it's anyone in the National League. I think the Dodgers run through scot-free as long as they maintain that bye — in a three-game set they could get got, but that's not happening.**

**For me it's the Red Sox. I think the Red Sox make it to the World Series.**

**Look back at that 21-4 stretch — that amazing July. Since then you could argue they've been the best team in baseball.** They've cooled off a little in September, so maybe that's taken the bloom off the rose.

| Metric                        | Red Sox                         |
| ----------------------------- | ------------------------------- |
| Expected ERA                  | **5th**                         |
| Outs above average (fielding) | **7th**                         |
| **Bullpen rate, AL teams**    | **1st by a comfortable margin** |

**Timely hitting is the question. But baseball is a weird game of momentum — we've seen the rally monkey be a factor. The Red Sox would have so much juice going into that series.**

**When I envision who takes down the new evil empire, it's a team like that: almost playing with house money, but with the talent to overtake a team as good as the Dodgers.**"

---

### 💰 The Exacta Angle

| Bet                      | Payout   |
| ------------------------ | -------- |
| **Red Sox over Dodgers** | **35/1** |
| Dodgers over Red Sox     | 20/1     |

**Scott: "You're probably better off doing that than just betting the Red Sox to win the American League."**

**Brandon's honesty on the AL market:** "**If you're trying to get in now, you're too late. Even after their hot July run you'd have been closer — I bet 10-to-1 at one point to win the American League, and that was AFTER the market was catching up. There are people out there with much better numbers. Compared to where we are now, I don't think it's worth a buy.**

**But who's got the horses, who's got the juice, who's been putting it together over the last couple of months? It's got to be the Red Sox.**"

---

## 📅 Coming Up

### TODAY

**🎬 The Bettor Day Football Show — 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT.** Scott, **Steve Fezzik**, and **AJ Hoffman**, live on the Bettor Day YouTube page and **@bettor\_day** on X.

### This Weekend

**Catch him on The Favorites** via Action Network — five favorite plays against the spread every Thursday.

---

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