Thursday Night Football Preview & Same Game Parlay

Scott Seidenberg and Brandon Kravitz preview Thursday Night Football, talk Week 2 trends, and build a Same Game Parlay for Bills vs Lions.

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🎙️ BRANDON KRAVITZ JOINS THE POD

Our newest contributor debuted last week on BettorDay.com with the Prop Shop — a weekly article, plus premium and free picks — and he's now a Thursday morning fixture for our Same Game Parlay build.

🏈 TONIGHT: LIONS AT BILLS

The Regular Season Debut of the New Highmark Stadium

🌬️ THE WIND ANGLE (not tonight — but soon)

The engineering: Going back to the Hard Knocks episode where Josh Allen toured the stadium, the engineers explained that it was designed to mitigate wind AT FIELD LEVEL. It can be swirling and gusting outside — you won't feel it on the field. 

Scott's season-long plan: "When we get a windy game in Orchard Park and everyone rushes to bet the under — because windy unders, right? — we're going to PIVOT and bet the OVER on a reduced number."

Tonight: 3 mph winds, 7 mph gusts. Not a factor.

⭐ BRANDON'S STANDALONE: JAKE BATES UNDER 1.5 FIELD GOALS

"Dan Campbell is not kicking field goals in this game. He'd have to be like fourth and ten from the 30, down by two. Otherwise he's going for it throughout the course of this game.

📉 THE OVERTIME FADE — AND WHY IT'S SHRINKING

Teams coming off an overtime game, then playing on the road on a Thursday:

Scott: "I wonder if that's telling us the market has caught up to how bad a spot this is — and over recent years it's being priced in accordingly. Maybe the Bills should only be a three-three and a half point favorite, not four and a half-five"

🧠 BRANDON'S RULE ON TRENDS

"I try to enter sports betting as non-egotistically as I can. The moment I start using a game factor in the point spreads I project, I assume the folks operating these sportsbooks already have me beat by a couple of years.

So I'm factoring this in — there's no reason DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM wouldn't as well. Which means it's part of the spread. And once something becomes part of the spread, you're going to see those trends regress toward the median.

It's a factor. Something to add to your analysis. I would never say throw it away — but it gets added to the line. It's not a reason to bet on anything."

📊 THE UNDER SIDE OF THAT SAME SYSTEM

The stronger under trend is the RECENT one.

❌ Why Brandon Is Passing on the Total Anyway

"Trend-wise this points you directly to the under. But it's overreaction week in the NFL. You had two games score over 60 points in week one. So naturally everyone who casually bets the NFL is going to be on the over. That's a great time to go the other way.

But I can't bet the under in this game. Not when the Lions just got torched by Tyler Shough and the Bills got torched by CJ Stroud. In a game with Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, DJ Moore, and Jameson Williams — this is a fantasy paradise.

I'm not taking the under. But the over is just way too casual for me. I'm sitting this one out from a totals perspective."

📄 THE WEEK 2 BETTING STRATEGIES ARTICLE

Free for everybody at BettorDay.com and in the app. Since the start of 2021:

🚩 FADE CATEGORY 1: THE 1-0 OVERVALUED FAVORITE

The Bills fall into both.

Scott: "It's hard to say the Buffalo Bills are overvalued — we know how good they are. And I like them here: at home, great situational spot with the Lions coming off overtime on the road early in the season. But it is very interesting that these 1-0 favorites have been overvalued since 2021 and do not cover."

⭐ THE OTHER SIDE: THE 0-1 UNDERVALUED DOG

Teams that FAILED TO COVER in week one and enter week two as an underdog: 65% ATS since 2021 (24-13-2)

Brandon: "The Lions fit that trend — and I think they're the only GOOD team this week that fits it. The other teams are Titans, Falcons, Browns, Dolphins, Colts. That's disgusting.

If you want a nice sexy dog that didn't cover in week one, you've got one option — and it's on Thursday Night Football."

🎯 THE WEEK 2 PHILOSOPHY

Brandon: "That's what week two is all about. It's about not overrating teams, and it's about not underrating teams based on them crapping the bed in week one.

If you just simply follow that path — I'm not going to overrate the teams that performed well, I'm not going to underrate the ones that didn't, based on how I felt about them before the season — I think you'd come out quite profitable. It's just hard to do in practice.

I mean, I'm betting the Jets this weekend. So not everything I say is gospel, people."

⭐ THE SAME GAME PARLAY: +1841

The three-leg build pays +669. Adding the under takes it to +1841.

"This is going to be quite the sweat on Thursday night. Hopefully we can thread that needle."

The Legs

🏈 Lions +4.5

Scott: "I don't know if I have it in me — I really like the Bills in this matchup with Detroit coming off overtime. But I think it's the sharp play to take the four and a half. All the trends point us in that direction. Field goal game. Let's go."

🎯 DJ Moore OVER 62.5

Week 1: 5 catches on 8 targets, 100 yards and a touchdown vs Houston.

Brandon: "He was heavily involved — in on 80% of the snaps in the first half. The only problem: when they play 13 personnel — and a lot of teams including the Bills are doing that — with three tight ends on the field, he comes off.In the second half he looked like he got banged up a little, but that's also when he had his biggest play of the game.

Going up against a team that just let Chris Olave look like Jerry Rice — I like Olave better than DJ Moore, but the matchup plays into the factor. The Lions secondary is going to get tested all year. This should be a good DJ Moore game."

🏃 James Cook OVER 100.5 rush + rec — THE BUY-LOW PIVOT

Brandon's original nomination was Gibbs over 88.5 — "He had 92% of the running back opportunities, and the Bills just gave up a monster day to David Montgomery. Just wait till they run into the modern-day LaDainian Tomlinson."

Scott's pivot: "I feel like we're paying a tax on Gibbs at 90.5. Cook is at 78.5 — and because he didn't have a good week one, maybe there's a bounce-back idea and we're buying low."

Brandon's provision: "If we're going Cook, we should slam his receiving number in too — because of the way Joe Brady gets him involved in the pass game. In the games where Cook has been at his best, he's involved as a receiver. I wouldn't want to leave the receiving yards on the table.

And I'm fine buying low. He was one of the guys in the first ever Prop Shop — I had his UNDER last week and we cashed. So we pivot to the over this week."

📉 The Under 54.5 as the Correlation Leg

Scott: "Because it's a primetime game, because of those under trends, and because we want the NEGATIVE correlation with the overs on receiving yards and Cook's rushing plus receiving. Dog and under is somewhat correlated since we're taking the points — that's what jacks this baby up."

📝 The Two Standalones That Didn't Fit

FanDuel doesn't allow pass attempts in the SGP — but Brandon likes them as standalone bets:

Brandon's reasoning: "Everyone's talking about the Lions playing into overtime — but the Bills played 77 snaps on DEFENSE too. Both teams are going to be dog tired, and both coaches are likely to try to shorten this game as much as they can."

(And the logical extension: "If you like those two unders, you kind of have to like one of these running backs to go over — if we're going to ground and pound a little more.")

🏈 THURSDAY NIGHT COLLEGE: SYRACUSE AT PITT

⭐ THE PLAY: OVER 51.5

Brandon: "Last week you had the monsoon of all monsoons with Pitt taking on my UCF Knights. So people might be a little down on that Pitt offense — but so much of that was weather related. The game was delayed and it was just an absolute slop fest.

UCF's defense is sneaky good this year. But Mason Heintschel is a stud — seven touchdowns in week one. I'd look the way of the over. I think Pitt puts up a number on Syracuse."

📅 Coming Up

• The Prop Shop returns this weekend at BettorDay.com — Brandon's weekly article
• Week 2 Betting Strategies is live and free to everyone 
• The NFL Trench Report is updated for Week 2 — "but it's only based on one game, so take it with a grain of salt." College football is updated too, at BettorDay.com and in the app
• The Bettor Day Football Show LIVE STREAM today at 2pm Eastern on YouTube & X @Bettor_Day

Find Brandon: Two weekly podcasts with Action Network — The Favorites, where they lock in five contest plays against the spread on Thursdays — and The Florida Line, isolating Gators, UCF, FSU, Jags, Bucs and Dolphins, with a Saturday morning pregame show.