TNF Preview / Same Game Parlay & Alabama vs Georgia Preview

Scott Seidenberg and AJ Hoffman preview Thursday Night Football with a Same Game Parlay for Cowboys vs Bucs. Plus the guys preview the biggest college football game of the week, Alabama vs Georgia.

Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe!

Listen

🦅 THE EAGLES TEARDOWN ACCELERATES

Lane Johnson retires. Then on Wednesday, they trade All-Pro center Cam Jurgens to the Baltimore Ravens.

They're already without Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith this week vs Jaguars in London.

AJ: This Feels Like the End of the Sirianni Era

"Most people expected this team wouldn't be as good as the last couple of years. But I don't think anybody thought it would be BAD. And right now it looks kind of like a bad football team.

Two and two is not the end of the world — but there hasn't been a single moment where the Eagles looked like, wow, this is a real team to beat. The way they blew the game against the Rams had to be really disheartening if you're an Eagles fan."

💸 THE JALEN HURTS VERDICT

"I think they're starting to realize that JALEN HURTS IS JUST NOT A GOOD QUARTERBACK.

There have been a lot of teams who have misallocated funds to quarterbacks. I don't know how many are going to end up looking WORSE when it's all said and done than what the Eagles did.

He is not a $50 million quarterback. A fifty to sixty million dollar quarterback should be able to THROW THE FOOTBALL. And quite frankly, Jalen Hurts looks like he can't.

I know he's played well in two Super Bowls. He's got a ring. That doesn't mean he's the REASON the Eagles won the Super Bowl.

As we see things crumble around him — how much of that defense has gone away, this offensive line starting to RAPIDLY fall apart — I think you're going to see the flaws in his game even more obviously.

They had him in the perfect spot at the perfect time when their roster was what it was three years ago. It's not that anymore. JALEN HURTS NEEDS EVERYTHING AROUND HIM TO BE TAILORED TO HIM TO WORK. And now it's not."

🎯 THE NFC EAST IS WIDE OPEN

Scott: "I was asked yesterday who wins the NFC East, and I said honestly, ANYONE. If Washington wins the division with an 8-9 record, would that shock you? Nothing would shock me in this division this year."

⭐ AJ'S PLAY: WASHINGTON AT 11-TO-1

"When you read those odds, the one that jumped out was WASHINGTON. Now that we know Jayden Daniels is back this weekend, that's already a tick up in my mind.

I just told you what I think of the Eagles' quarterback situation. The Giants are a roller coaster at best — it wouldn't shock me if Jameis Winston goes on a nice run, but at some point JAMEIS WINSTON IS GOING TO IMPLODE and cost them games.

I don't think there's a great team — or there might not even be a GOOD team — in this division. And if you've got Jayden Daniels and he can somehow be what he's been in the past, you've got a puncher's chance at eleven to one."

🚫 AND WHY HE WON'T PAY FAVORITE PRICES ON DALLAS

"The Cowboys have easily the most settled and calm quarterback situation. But everybody said their defense CAN'T be worse this year.

Well — it actually might be WORSE. The Cowboys defense might be worse than a year ago, when it was disastrously bad.

I can't picture a world where you pay favorite prices on the team with the WORST DEFENSE IN THE LEAGUE to win their division, no matter how good their offense might be."

The number: Dallas is dead last in the NFL in EPA per play on defense.

🏈 TONIGHT: COWBOYS vs BUCCANEERS

Dallas -8.5, total 47.5. No Baker Mayfield — undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels starts for Tampa.

📊 THE 0-4 BUCS IN CONTEXT

From this week's article, You Are What Your Opponent's Record Says You Are:

⭐ LEG 1: BUCS +8.5

Scott: "They're 0-4 by a combined twenty points against a slate of opponents that are above .500 in every other game they play."

AJ: "I hate to miss out on the fact we could have had TEN two days ago — ten and a half in some places. But I tend to agree. They haven't lost a game by more than a touchdown."

⚠️ His Honest Caveat

"My concern: the Browns, Vikings, and Packers are three of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Packers are the LOWEST SCORING OFFENSE in the league. So Tampa's defensive numbers may be a little INFLATED.

The Cowboys are going to score. The question is whether the Bucs can put up enough to hang."

🏃 The Reason He's In Anyway

"At least their backup quarterback CAN RUN. And one thing we've seen — THIS COWBOYS DEFENSE CANNOT HANDLE A MOBILE QUARTERBACK. They've struggled with it all season long. Jackson Dart had his way with them early in the season."

⭐ LEG 2: JALEN DANIELS OVER 46.5 RUSHING YARDS

AJ: "Tampa's beat up at running back. They don't have a lot of options. They don't have a quarterback they trust to throw it. I think that's going to be a heavy part of their game."

(His preference for a standalone: rush ATTEMPTS — which FanDuel won't allow in the SGP.)

⭐ LEG 3: CEEDEE LAMB OVER 80.5 RECEIVING YARDS

AJ: "What I've seen out of this Cowboys team is they are IN LOVE WITH CEEDEE LAMB. The talk of a 1 and 1A with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens is NONSENSICAL — I don't know if they're looking to drive down the asking price for Pickens by not involving him as much, or what.

CeeDee Lamb is clearly Dak's favorite, and we've seen it every game this year. Last week SEVENTEEN CATCHES, which is just absurd.

I actually prefer CeeDee Lamb overs to Dak Prescott overs, because the VOLUME is going to be there."

🔀 LEG 4: THE ANTI-CORRELATION — COWBOYS -2.5 IN THE FIRST QUARTER

Scott's Coin Toss Logic

"Because Dallas leads with their OFFENSE and Tampa leads with their DEFENSE — if the Cowboys win the toss, they take the ball. If the Bucs win the toss, they DEFER because they want to be on defense first.

Either way, that gives the Cowboys the first possession of the game, and possibly an extra possession in the first quarter.

I trust the Cowboys offense to score EARLY as opposed to late. Maybe it's 3-0 at the end of the first quarter. Maybe it's 10-0."

💰 THE BUILD

🎣 The Hail Mary Reasoning

AJ: "I'm trying to think of an UNDER where you've got a brand name player who isn't going to have the kind of game with this quarterback situation in place. So maybe an EGBUKA UNDER."

Scott's alternative was Bucky Irving — "if the Cowboys are winning and it's a come-from-behind script, maybe it's Jalon Daniels passing and running, so fewer handoffs to Bucky."

AJ: "They'll be willing to use Irving in the PASSING game with Daniels. They're going to look for short stuff — which is kind of why I like Egbuka. He's going to be their BIG PLAY guy, and I want to keep the ball out of his hands."

🦵 THE STANDALONE PROP: LONGEST FIELD GOAL OVER 49.5 (-115)

AJ: "The Cowboys have had a kick BLOCKED in each of the last two weeks. I imagine they're working hard in practice to make sure that doesn't happen again.

Brandon Aubrey has historically been such a weapon for them. In a game against a respectable defense — and Tampa at worst is a respectable defense — the Cowboys are going to be put in a situation where they have to kick a pretty long field goal.

And Schottenheimer has NOT backed off his trust in Aubrey. I expect them to be very willing to use him."

The market: Aubrey over 1.5 field goals made is -164. But the longest field goal made IN THE GAME — by either team — at over 49.5 sits at -115.

🐘 #2 GEORGIA AT #6 ALABAMA — THE SYSTEM vs THE METRICS

Alabama -1.5. Total 51.5. Both teams 5-0.

This is a system play ONLY because the favorite flipped — Georgia was favored in the look-ahead markets and as recently as last week.

📊 THE SYSTEM (since 2021)

Two top-25 teams where the LOWER-ranked team is favored over the HIGHER-ranked team:

Narrowed to Two TOP TEN Teams

(The only straight-up loss this season: Michigan losing to Iowa on the final play. Otherwise it's a perfect 6-0.)

🔴 BUT SCOTT'S ANALYTICS SAY GEORGIA

"All my metrics point to Georgia. But the market and the system are telling me to play Alabama."

⭐ AJ: ALABAMA IS THE ONLY SIDE HE'D PLAY

"My power ratings make Georgia about a FIVE AND A HALF POINT FAVORITE on a neutral. So there's no home field advantage that gets me to Alabama being favored.

But Alabama is the only side I would play here. And part of it has to do with STRENGTH OF OPPONENTS."

The Résumé Comparison

"Kentucky and Mississippi State are both pretty good — both sitting at one loss, and THEIR ONLY LOSSES ARE TO ALABAMA.

Georgia's wins? Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt. THAT MIGHT BE THE THREE WORST TEAMS IN THE SEC. Plus Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. THEY HAVE NOT PLAYED A SINGLE OPPONENT THAT IS EVEN AN AVERAGE TEAM.

The blowout home win over Oklahoma looks less and less impressive every week.

This road trip to Alabama is the kind of spot where I'm looking to back the team who's ALREADY TAKEN SOME BULLETS — who's been in the firefight. Alabama fits that mold."

The Lookahead Caveat He Raises Himself

"I worry a little because Alabama has another big rivalry game on deck at Tennessee. But that's just the SEC. When you're Alabama or Georgia, you're ALWAYS going to have a rival on deck.

With both these teams having a zero next to their name, I expect the best effort from both sides."

🎯 His Actual Position

"It's Alabama or pass for me. And I LEAN TO THE OVER — I was hoping to get something below fifty, just knowing Georgia's defensive reputation. It's at 51.5. IF IT WERE 49.5, I WAS GOING TO HAMMER THE OVER. Now I'm pretty neutral."

⛈️ TRACKING THE WEATHER: TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS

The storm is expected to make landfall around the Florida panhandle / Gulf region. Totals are already moving across the southeast.

🌬️ AJ'S WEATHER FRAMEWORK

"Obviously I'd want to know more about WIND than rain. I don't think the rain will matter.

Last week one of my best bets was the Alabama–Mississippi State OVER, and the under got hammered because it was supposed to be horrific weather. There was a little rain. IT SAILED OVER.

Alabama is scoring FIFTY POINTS A GAME. They just go out every week and put up fifty. I don't expect that this weekend because they're playing Georgia — but when the total is just over fifty and Alabama averages fifty themselves, I don't know how much weather there would have to be to keep me off it.

On the rest of the board: maybe wait to decide around game time. For a lot of those games — you mentioned the Marshall game — I DON'T CARE WHAT THE WEATHER IS. I've seen Marshall's defense play football. They're DREADFUL. THEY COULD PLAY THAT GAME ON THE MOON AND I THINK IT GOES OVER.

If you're borderline one way or the other, maybe default to the under. But I'm not going to let it take me off my heavier plays."

⚠️ And Monitor the Schedule

Scott: "Right now Georgia-Alabama is set to be played as scheduled. But you never know — some games could decide to MOVE. A Florida A&M game is being moved to Friday morning because it's homecoming and they want to make sure it isn't affected."

📅 TODAY

🎬 THE BETTOR DAY FOOTBALL SHOW — 2 PM ET. AJ Hoffman hosts alongside Steve Fezzik and Michael Fiddle, streaming live on the BettorDay YouTube channel and the BettorDay Twitter account.

For the full data, databases, Trench Reports, Game Centers and HQs — become a BettorDay Insider or Premium member at BettorDay.com or in the mobile app. Compare tiers →