> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Thursday, October 22nd, 2023 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/thursday-october-22nd-2023/ - Published: 2026-10-22T10:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-22T10:00:00.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## Live Betting Masterclass & TNF Same Game Parlay *A new voice on the pod today. *Evan Daniel* — co-host of the Walter Football podcast — specializes in something most handicappers skip entirely: live, in-game betting. He explains who should never do it, why the books leave money on the table after kickoff, and the one angle he's hunting in tonight's Bears-Patriots game. Plus a five-leg Thursday night same game parlay.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) # 🎯 THE THREE PEOPLE WHO SHOULD NOT LIVE BET Evan opened by disqualifying most of the audience, which is the right way to start. **1\. Anyone playing five figures a game.** **Evan:** "A lot of the folks you and I know in town are playing five figures on a game. **Those folks simply cannot get down enough on a live bet to make it worth their while.** There's no book that's going to take $10,000 or $50,000 on a live quarterback prop or a live team total midway through the third quarter. **Folks playing five figures — or maybe even $5,000 or $3,000 — just aren't going to have the ability to get down what they want.**" **2\. Anyone without access**, depending on what state you live in. **3\. The pure fan.** "**Somebody who just simply loves football for the sake of watching football.** Not betting, not playing fantasy." **Who it's actually for:** "Somebody like you and me. Not so much the casual — though it could be a casual bettor, or somebody trying to do well with it. **Not just to have fun, hang out with friends in a bar and make $100 on a game.**" --- ## 🤖 THE CORE THESIS: THE ALGORITHM IS SET PRE-GAME > **"The algorithm is set pre-game. What is the line pre-game? What is the score? And how much time remains? They're not necessarily taking into consideration the situation."** ### In football, the situation is the deficit **Evan:** "What we take advantage of in football is often **teams that are behind.** You talk about a guy like Josh Allen — **when he's behind, he's throwing more.** Stafford, when he's behind, he's throwing more. **Running quarterbacks might run more.**" ### In basketball, the situation is the run **Evan:** "Basketball is a game of runs. **When a team is favored by eight, that line assumes the team is going to be up by two every quarter — or one every six minutes. And that's not the way basketball works.** There's an ebb and flow to these games that, if you're following, you can really take advantage of." --- ## 📈 THE PROOF: NBA OPENING NIGHT **Evan:** "Look no further than Tuesday. **All three games — every team that was down at halftime made a run.**" And here's the number that makes the case: | Spurs vs. Thunder | Price | | ---------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------- | | **Spurs moneyline at halftime** | **+900** | | **Thunder moneyline midway through the third** | **−278 / −268** *(depending where you shop)* | **Evan:** "**The Spurs didn't come back to win the game. But they were +900 at halftime.** Midway through the third quarter that line was OKC −278." > 🔑 **"When you're live betting, you don't necessarily need your team to come back and win. You just need them to make a run."** "If I can go into a game and **play the middles, hedge the moneylines back and forth**, I have a great opportunity." --- ## 🏀 PLAYER-PROP CASE STUDY ### The Anthony Edwards blowout Wednesday night, Minnesota beat Miami **131-106.** Up 25-plus, Edwards never came out. **Evan:** "For some reason, up by 25-plus points, Anthony Edwards was still in the game. **He had 45 points to close the game. Nine threes.** He was going for ten threes. He was going for 50 points. **And they were leaving him in. When he had the ball, what do you think he was doing? He was shooting.**" > **"I played over seven threes, eight threes, nine threes, ten threes. Obviously didn't get the ten — but the ninth three that he made was +800\. You're offering me 800 on a guy who's on fire from three, who's shooting?"** --- # 🏈 TONIGHT: BEARS HOST PATRIOTS **Line:** Bears **−3** | **Total:** 50.5 | **The BettorDay Line: Bears −2.85** ## 📐 Why the Number Moved, and Why Evan Likes the Dog **Evan's own power rating had this at 1.5.** "I think New England is slightly the better team. I do give Chicago a slight home field advantage — **nobody really gets more than a point and a half anymore.** So I think the one and a half is fair." **What pushed it to three: three offensive linemen.** | Patriot | Status | | ---------------------- | ------------------------------------- | | **Elijah Vera-Tucker** | **Ruled out** | | **Ben Brown** | **Ruled out** | | **Morgan Moses** | Practiced limited — **NOT ruled out** | **Evan:** "All of a sudden you're missing three linemen for New England, and everyone knows it's a short week. **But if Morgan Moses plays, you've got your right tackle, Campbell is obviously playing much better, and Drake Maye is playing a lot better.**" ### ⭐ His lean: Patriots +3 **Evan:** "I think there's value in getting that full field goal. **This line should be a little under three — maybe a 2.5 with juice to the favorite. But at three, I kind of like it.**" ### 🐕 And the streak says the same thing > **Ten straight primetime underdogs have covered.** Eight straight won outright before the 49ers snapped that Monday — **and the Commanders still covered.** --- # 🎰 THE THURSDAY NIGHT SAME GAME PARLAY ## Leg 1: D'Andre Swift OVER 17.5 receiving yards **The line moved the wrong way for the books.** It was **19.5 earlier in the week — now 17.5.** Swift's season average is about **23 and change.** **The matchup reason, and it's the key to the whole card:** > **"Both of these teams play a lot of man coverage, and both of these teams blitz a lot. When you have blitzing man-coverage teams, you see that running back sneaking out into the flat."** "That leads not only to designed screens for Swift, but also **the check-down passes.**" With Kyle Monangai out, Roschon Johnson gets more run — but Caleb Williams was looking for Swift out of the backfield last week. **Evan's caveat, stated upfront:** "I'm not sure how much I love adding that in right away, because **that prop has a much better chance of hitting if the Bears are behind later in the game.**" ## Leg 2: Patriots +3 ## Leg 3: AJ Brown OVER 71.5 receiving yards Scott's angle: after last week's drops, this is a make-amends game. **Evan prefers yards to receptions, and the reasoning is clean:** "**With receptions I need multiple plays to get there. With the yards, I theoretically have the home run or bust.**" **On last week:** "AJ Brown had one of the worst games a receiver could ever have. **Four drops, five drops — balls that just hit him in the hands. Perfectly thrown balls.** Took his eyes off the ball, rust, whatever you want to call it. He was horrible." **On why it's a buy:** "They ask Drake Maye after the game about forcing the ball to Brown. **He says, Brown's a great receiver, and I'm going to continue to throw him the ball.** I think they make a conscientious effort early to get him the ball, get him feeling good. **I don't think AJ Brown forgot how to catch a football all of a sudden.**" An injury elsewhere in the receiving room also helps his target share. ### 🔁 And the live follow-up on the same player **Evan:** "**If his line is 70 and he has 45 or 50 at halftime, his line in the second half is not going to adjust based on his earlier performance.** It's simply set based on what the line is right now — **about 35 yards per half.**" "Unless something crazy is happening — like the Pats up 24-7 at halftime with shorter passing usage — **there's no reason his line adjusts more than that 35 yards. And there could be an alternate play on AJ Brown later if New England is forced into a situation where they have to pass.**" ## ⭐ Leg 4: FIRST HALF UNDER 24.5 — the correlation breaker The first three legs all point the same direction, so the base parlay only pays about **+400.** Scott added the leg that fights them. **Why 24.5:** it's a key number for halves. | First-half scoring | | | ----------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ | | Bears, offense | **\~14** *(inflated by two big games, notably Week 1)* | | Patriots, offense | **\~12** | | **Patriots, defense allowed** | **\~7** | | **Bears, defense allowed** | **\~10** | **Scott:** "Can I get a 14-7 half? Can I get 21 points? **You know something — 17-7 is okay with me, because 24 is okay.**" **Evan loved it enough that he had it as a standalone:** "**I was actually going to give you that as a separate straight bet.** I love taking these primetime first halves under." **His supporting observation from this week:** "The Niners come right down the field, walk down the field like it's butter, touchdown right away. The night before, Green Bay moving the ball right down the field — **and both of those first halves went way under the total.**" > **"Oftentimes that first drive is that scripted, easy six- or seven-minute touchdown drive, and then it slows down. Or better yet, oftentimes that first drive doesn't go anywhere — and now that line is dropping like a stone."** ## Leg 5 (the sprinkle): GAME OVER 50.5 **Scott:** "We like the first half to go under 24.5 — **but I do think this game winds up going over 50.5.**" --- ## ⭐ YOUR FOUR OPTIONS | Build | Legs | Payout | | ------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------------- | --------- | | Base | Swift over, Brown over, Patriots +3 | \~+400 | | **Four-leg** | **\+ 1H under 24.5** | **+900** | | **Five-leg** ⭐ | **\+ game over 50.5** | **+2438** | | **No-Patriots four-leg** | Swift over, Brown over, 1H under 24.5, game over 50.5 | **+1615** | *That last one is for anyone who wants the card without taking a side.* --- # 📺 INSIDE THE WAR ROOM: EVAN'S LIVE-BETTING RULES ## Rule 1: Don't play live until halftime Simple as that, with one exception — ## ⭐ Rule 2: The double-dip drive **This is the most actionable thing in the episode.** **Evan:** "I know the Bears are getting the ball out of half. So I know who's getting the ball first. **And let's say the Bears get the ball back with under two minutes to go in the second quarter. That's a pedal-to-the-floor drive — they're not looking to run the clock, they're looking to move.**" "So whoever is behind, if that team gets the ball late in the second quarter **and** is getting the ball at halftime — **that is where I'd start to look at the quarterback alternate passing total. And it doesn't matter where it is at that point.**" **The math:** "For the game we're looking at around 240 for each quarterback. So about **125 for a second half.** **If I can steal a drive before halftime, that is when I'm looking to play the quarterback over.**" ## Rule 3: Let the drive develop first "If Drake Maye is behind, **I don't want to play Maye on passing yards until he's getting the ball back.** I'm waiting for that first Bears drive of the half to at least go near completion, or at least be midway through. **Then** I'm looking toward Maye over on his passing." ## 🤦 Rule 4: Check both angles — his own Monday night miss **Evan:** "The other night I was shading toward Jayden Daniels on the rushing with Washington behind. **And that was a mistake. I didn't even look toward the passing angle — and he ended up with 300 even passing.** He had around 120 at halftime. It wasn't much." **What he left on the table:** "If you laddered Jayden Daniels' passing yards with a big deficit, you were probably looking at **225 for his regular line. And if you laddered that alternate — 225, 250, 275, even 300 — you're looking at payouts in the two-to-one, five-to-one, and then eight or nine-to-one range.**" ## Rule 5: The combo-yards angle **Evan:** "If this could be a shootout and either team is behind seven or ten points, that yields more passing. **And we both know Drake Maye is looking to take shots down the field, and Caleb is looking to take shots down the field.**" "Midway through the third or even fourth quarter, until the final drive or two, **you can look for a combo yards where both quarterbacks combine for 500 — or even 600\. Some of those payouts get into the five-to-one or better range.**" --- # ⭐ HIS FAVORITE ANGLE TONIGHT: QB RUSHING YARDS, SECOND HALF, FOR WHOEVER IS BEHIND The chain of logic here is the best handicapping in the episode. Follow it: **1\. The Bears play a ton of man coverage.** "For the league in general they're in the **top two or three for man. Dennis Allen plays a lot of man.**" **2\. Man coverage means a single high safety.** "And what happens when you have a single high safety? **Shots down the field.**" **3\. Those shots go one of two ways.** "If Maye has time — **big if** — he's going to take those shots. **So either he's racking up passing yards, or incomplete passes, which yield more stopped clock and maybe a few more plays.**" **4\. And if the shots aren't there?** "**Dare I say, if those plays are not there and he's getting blitzed, he's going to run.**" **5\. Chicago blitzes at a tremendous rate.** "Last week Kyler Gordon came back for the Bears. **He ended up with three sacks in the game.**" **6\. And Maye is the right quarterback for it.** "**When they blitzed Michael Penix, he's a statue. When you blitz Drake Maye, he's moving, he's evading pressure, and he's going to take off.**" ### 🧮 Now the number > **"His rush yards for the game are around 30 — which means by halftime you're looking at around 15\. So midway through the third quarter his line's about 10, maybe 12\. In one shot he can pick up 10 to 15 yards. All it takes is that one scramble."** ### ⭐ THE PLAY **Evan:** "If I'm looking for the quarterback that's behind — **either one of them** — seven to ten points or fourteen points down in the second half, midway through the third quarter: **the prop of quarterback rushing yards in that eight-to-twelve-yard range. I want the straight over, I want it laddered 15 plus, 20 plus — and heck, why not 30 plus?**" ### 🛑 And the discipline that makes it work This is the part most people would skip, and it's why the angle is worth anything at all: **Evan:** "**I do this all the time — but I'm not doing it now. I'm not coming into the game playing all the quarterback rushing yards over. I want to be strategic about my timing and the game situation.**" > **"We want to let the game — almost like you're a coach telling your players — let the game come to you. Don't force any action. Wait for it. Be strategic and be responsible. But they're there. The numbers are there. The situation will call for something in this game."** **His final line on the game: 30-27.** "I think New England's the better team. I wouldn't be surprised if either team won. **But I love the angle of the quarterback rushing second half for the team that's behind.**" --- # 🐕 WEEK 8 TRENDS ## ⭐ 1\. Dogs off a loss against favorites off a win > **Dogs off a loss vs. an opponent off a win, this season: 17-8 ATS.** **Who it applies to this week:** **Ravens, Buccaneers, Colts, Falcons, Giants.** --- ## 📅 Coming Up - 📺 **Today, 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT:** The Bettor Day Football Show streams live on YouTube and X — Scott, **Steve Fezzik** and **AJ Hoffman** on the NFL and a college slate we crushed last Saturday - 🎙️ **Tonight, 15-20 minutes after the final whistle:** Evan co-hosts the **Walter Football** podcast live on YouTube — a two-hour show through every game, taking questions in the comments. He and Walter **share Circa Millions entries**, so you get the reasoning behind the picks - ⚾ **Tomorrow:** A full **World Series preview** — Brewers vs. Rays, Game 1 Friday night [ Bettor Day Exclusive Sportsbook Promos Promo Codes, Unlocked For You We've partnered with top sportsbooks to bring exclusive sign-up offers to the Bettor Day community. Offers vary by location — **see what's live in your state.** Check Offers In Your State → 21+ • For entertainment purposes only • Please bet responsibly ](https://www.vaultsportshq.com/preferred-books/bettorday?ref=bettorday.com)