Thursday Night Football Preview & Same Game Parlay

Scott Seidenberg and Brandon Kravitz preview Thursday Night Football between the Steelers and Browns with a Same Game Parlay.

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🎯 GOING FOR BACK-TO-BACK

Last Thursday's same game parlay cashed at +880 — and plenty of you got it at better numbers using odds boosts.

Brandon: "I love when we can deliver. And I don't just say this because it sounds good — it makes me feel BETTER delivering for other people than when I hit myself. I wear the losses hard. But when we win publicly like this and other people are tailing our action, it's the biggest sense of satisfaction you can have in this industry."

Tonight: Steelers at Browns. Pittsburgh -2.5, total 38.5.

🟤 THE DESHAUN WATSON REASSESSMENT

Scott: "I was very anti-Deshaun Watson and very critical of the Browns. I said after that preseason press conference — where he sounded like he didn't even want to be in Cleveland — that Todd Monken had no choice but to make Shedeur Sanders the starter.

I have to take a step back. Deshaun Watson is healthy and looks like a SERVICEABLE NFL quarterback.

That said, they played the 0-3 Bucs and the 1-2 Panthers. I can't say this team has faced tough competition and overcome it. But outside of game one — maybe we underrated him a little bit."

Brandon: It's the Scheme, Not the Upside

"He's shown in flashes just enough of that escapability. The play evading the rush, stepping up in the pocket, hitting Harold Fannin in the end zone — that was VINTAGE Deshaun Watson. I don't think he can pull that out of the suitcase as often these days. But the fact that he's still got it, and that he knows how to operate an NFL offense.

The guy doesn't have the upside he used to. The offensive SCHEME is what's really delivering for Watson right now."

📉 The Numbers Under the Hood

"It's not like everything is sunshine and rainbows. But Todd Monken is calling a really smart game right now, and Deshaun Watson is helping to NOT RUIN IT. That's something you probably couldn't confidently say about Shedeur Sanders — which is what makes Watson the better option right now."

⭐ THE SAME GAME PARLAY

The Baseline: +648

Leg 1: Harold Fannin Jr.

The Browns' target distribution: KC Concepcion 20 of 82, Fannin 18, Denzel Boston 15.

Brandon: "I'm still not 100% sure I trust the rookies. Denzel Boston had a couple of touchdowns in the first two games, but they're just not going to him enough. Concepcion — so much of that is around the line of scrimmage.

Fannin's the guy. TWENTY TWO PERCENT TARGET SHARE in that offense, Fannin IS the offensive passing attack more than anybody else."

His line: 7 catches for 51 vs Carolina, 5 for 54 vs Tampa, 2 for 21 in the Jacksonville loss.

(Brandon floated first touchdown scorer at 12/1 — "at home, primetime" — but we saved the touchdown for the Hail Mary version.)

Leg 2: Jaylen Warren — Scott's Mea Culpa First

Scott: "I was completely wrong on Warren last week. That was more of a backing of the Bengals defense, which looked really good over the first two weeks.

But I needed to take a step back and look at WHO they played. They beat the Bucs, who turned it over three consecutive possessions and then abandoned the run. They beat the Texans, who abandoned the run because of DeMeco Ryans' questionable decisions.

Two 0-3 teams. Maybe I should have paused before announcing the Bengals defense as the '85 Bears. Warren torched them for 127."

🔑 Brandon: Three Things Changed at Once

1. Rodgers broke out. "The most explosiveness we've seen from the Steelers since he joined. His highest average depth of target as a Steeler. He connected on three 30-plus pass attempts — the most in the league in week three."

2. The scheme changed. "They did NOT run into the line. Every run with Jaylen Warren went OUTSIDE ZONE. They basically said: we're not even going to test Dexter Lawrence."

3. The line got healthy. "Max Iheanachor finally got a start on the line. They'd been slow playing that, and it made a huge difference."

The Case

"Warren is TOP FIVE in rush yards before contact in the NFL. He's off a game with 127 on 17 carries and a 66% snap share. We came into the season thinking he'd split with Rico Dowdle — that's not the case.

And he had an EIGHTY-YARD TOUCHDOWN called back on a holding penalty. The game could have been even better. WE LEFT MEAT ON THE BONE.

Over 67.5 was my favorite prop of the night."

⚠️ The Line Moved

It's now 71.5.

Brandon: "I don't like being late to the party, but sometimes you just are. We're at least DIRECTIONALLY right with the way the line is moving. I'm still comfortable. Seventy-four and a half, seventy-five — that's when I'd walk away from the table."

Leg 3: Watson Under 187.5 — The Anti-Correlation

Scott: "We have to go with an under. And this is a great negative correlation — we're going OVER on Fannin's receptions and UNDER on Watson's passing yards."

Brandon: "I was leaning that direction. A lot of what he's doing is around the line of scrimmage — and I'd venture to say he hasn't played a defense as good as what Pittsburgh is going to throw at him.

Pittsburgh was a team I was going to target early in the season, before their age really catches up with them. One of the oldest rosters in the NFL.

This just feels like a classic black-and-blue AFC North battle. An island game on Thursday night with a total under 40."

📉 AND THE UNDER HE ALSO LIKES

Brandon's game total trends:

"I really like the under in this game overall."

🚀 THE HAIL MARY VERSIONS

Warren over 71.5 and Watson under 187.5 stay in every combination.

Brandon: "The man is cooking."

⭐ BEST BET OF THE WEEK: EAGLES +3 vs THE RAMS

Both hosts. Scott bet it in the SUMMER.

Brandon's Case

"I'm IN on the Eagles. That's one of my best bets of the week. I expect a big bounce back.

I think the Rams could really be in trouble here. No Puka Nacua. They're asking WAY too much of Davante Adams.

This was not a team built to deal with injuries to their star players. Puka Nacua and Myles Garrett being out — that is MASSIVE. They really don't have the personnel to overcome it.

Getting Philadelphia at home, Rams traveling west to east — never an easy spot."

📊 THE TREND SCOTT BET IN THE SUMMER

"I gave this out at +3 in the summer. This is the week the mileage catches up: Australia, back for Monday night against a physical Giants team, then DENVER AT ELEVATION, then cross-country to Philadelphia."

Since the start of 2021 — teams playing AWAY the week after playing AT DENVER:

Scott: "Can the Rams win AND cover by only scoring 21 against the Eagles? Maybe. I don't think so."

👀 WHAT WE'RE WATCHING IN WEEK 4

Packers at Buccaneers — a Franchise Statement Game

Brandon: "If the Bucs are able to beat the Packers with Jalen Daniels at quarterback, we need to talk about Green Bay seriously as a team that needs to RESTRUCTURE EVERYTHING. This is a statement-of-the-franchise sort of game for them.

For both sides it's a disgusting game. But Jalen Daniels was awesome in the preseason and in the very short moments he had against Minnesota. He's got escapability and a CANNON for an arm. If they can figure out how to get him to complete some of that intermediate stuff, he could be a threat.

That game is going to tell us a lot in whichever direction it goes."

Jaguars at Bengals — The One He Can't Read

"On a much sexier level, same thing here. I came into the season with EXTREME OPTIMISM in both.

The Bengals had that tough divisional game last week — and I never really make too much of AFC North battles. It feels like all of those games are decided by three. It's written into the law of the universe.

The Jags have had two blowout wins. One is looking better as it ages — blowing out the Browns. And I don't know what to make of the Patriots right now.

I feel like it's going to be one of those games where it's just NOT GOING TO BE CLOSE. One of these teams pulls away, and we'll take away a lot from that."

🚫 The One He Won't Touch

"The Patriots have to get right. That seven was hanging out there, and it's disappeared. I get it.

But I'm 0-3 betting AGAINST the Bills this year. I am not touching that game with a ten-foot pole."

⚾ IF NOT THE DODGERS, THEN WHO?

Brandon has changed his answer.

"I'm really struggling to be uber confident about ANY team going up against the Dodgers. But if it's going to happen — IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE WORLD SERIES ANYMORE."

⭐ THE NEW ANSWER: THE BREWERS, IN THE NLCS

"It's got to be the other team that got the bye in the National League.

There's a reason why they didn't go all in to get Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline — they're pretty confident with what they have.

So it's a matter of their BATS showing up in key moments. We know the Dodgers are going to put up five or six in these pivotal games. Can the Brewers match? That's the biggest question mark.

But they've got that sour taste in their mouths from last year. They've got the pitching to do it. That's most likely going to be the NLCS — and I could see a world where the Brewers take them out."

📊 For Members

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