TNF Preview & Same Game Parlay

Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers preview Thursday Night Football between the Seahawks and the Broncos with a Same Game Parlay. Plus the Dodgers are on the brink of elimination.

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🏔️ TNF: SEAHAWKS AT BRONCOS

Line: Seahawks −2.5 | Total: 40.5 (was 41.5 earlier in the week)

📐 Do the Arithmetic on What That Number Claims

Scott: "On the surface, I don't know how we get to this line. Or maybe I should rephrase — I actually do know how we get to this line. I just don't think it makes a whole lot of sense."

"And we also have to factor in that this is Denver. It's Mile High. It's a very difficult place to play. You're on a short week as the road team, which already puts you at a disadvantage. This spread is telling us the Seahawks are a lot better than four points on a neutral."

📊 What the models actually say

Three points of disagreement between our number and the board. That's the whole segment.

🏈 Mac's Comparison Point: Last Year's Super Bowl

Mac: "What was the Super Bowl line? Patriots plus four and a half, plus five and a half? It didn't make sense in hindsight. I was saying on Super Bowl row, you were like, 'the market knows it's four and a half,' and I'm thinking maybe the Seahawks win by twenty. I was not a fan of efficient market theory for that particular Super Bowl."

"So — are the Broncos one point worse than last year's Patriots? With injuries, I could kind of get there. But I think the Broncos are underrated and I think the Seahawks might be overrated."

🎯 The Sam Darnold Problem Nobody's Discussing

This is the sharpest thing said all show, because the entire public conversation has been about the other quarterback.

Mac: "The Broncos have gotten a lot of heat for Bo Nix not being what we expected in his third or fourth year. How about Sam Darnold? You look at the ESPN QBR list — Justin Herbert is the worst. Sam Darnold is second-worst."

"He hasn't been good, and we kind of give him a pass because he missed a game, and then you come back and you have that pick-six to end the Washington game. All right, that was the first game back. And the 49ers are a good defense. But put it all together and we have enough sample here to say he is not playing as well as he was last year. Therefore the Seahawks aren't six points better than a pretty good AFC team. I think the Broncos are the play here, especially on a short week."

📉 And the EPA Splits Back Him Up

Scott's numbers — total EPA per play:

Denver is ahead of Seattle on offense by this measure. Seattle's edge is entirely defensive — and it's a big one, but it's one side of the ball.

🏥 THE COUNTERWEIGHT: DENVER'S SECONDARY IS GUTTED

Scott flagged the thing that gives him pause on his own position.

Scott: "You've got to go up against JSN and Cooper Kupp without your starting cornerbacks and your starting safety. Bad spot to be in here for the Denver Broncos."

Mac: "Good point." Then he returned the favor with two against Denver:

• "The great Broncos home field advantage, historically by the database, kind of just dissipates by mid-October. It's an early-season trend."
• "Mike Macdonald is what, 18-3 on the road in his career."

Mac's landing spot: "I think the total I like more than either side here"

🎰 THE THURSDAY NIGHT SAME GAME PARLAY

Built live on FanDuel, all alternates, and the construction logic is the reason to read this.

🧠 The Core Idea: Deliberate Negative Correlation

Scott: "If we take the under as leg number one, we are setting ourselves up for some serious negative correlation — we're going to jack up the payout on anything else we build."

Mac: "The thing is, 41.5 is a key — you can get a lot of offense in a 21-20 game or a 24-17 game."

Leg 1: Alternate UNDER 41.5

The live number is 40.5. Scott and Bettor Day Premium members already have the under at 41.5 from earlier in the week, so rather than recommend a worse number, they bought the alternate back up to 41.5.

Mac: "Pay a little extra. −120 is fine." And on the number itself: "41 is a key number."

Leg 2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 100+ receiving yards

Baseline prop was over 92.5. They took the alternate up to a flat 100.

Mac: "He lost them the game last week. He's the best player in football not named Brock Purdy. He's going to show up." And: "He's got a hundred every game."

Scott: "It's the squarest play in the books, but we've got to do it, right?" — with no Surtain, no Hufanga, and possibly no Moss.

Two legs: +318

Leg 3: J.K. Dobbins, 60+ rushing yards

Baseline was 47.5. Alternate up to 60.

The reason is what happened the moment Sean Payton took play-calling back:

J.K. Dobbins: 18 carries for 68 yards — 18 of Denver's 29 rushing attempts.

Mac: "They ran more than they passed, which is unusual in the NFL. So that's an interesting data point. Sean Payton calls plays for the first time and he's like, Bo Nix, you're the relief pitcher here."

Three legs: +1020

Leg 4: Broncos alternate spread −2.5

Not the +2.5 they're getting. The other direction — Denver to win by three or more.

Mac: "I think the other three legs speak to the Broncos. So if I'm not getting any kind of premium on the Broncos… pick them to win."

The clincher, and it's a genuinely elegant piece of reasoning: "I feel like if Dobbins is getting his 60th yard in the fourth quarter, it's because we're winning the game."

They walked up the ladder to get there:

⭐ THE PLAY: FOUR-LEG SGP, +1964 (FanDuel)

+1964

🐕 PRIMETIME DOGS HAVE WON SEVEN STRAIGHT OUTRIGHT

Not covered. Won.

Weeks 4 & 5 was a clean three-game sweep for the dogs.

🇬🇧 Texans at Jaguars: Why a 1-4 Team Is Still a Playoff Team

Marvin Harrison Jr. makes his Texans debut Sunday in London. Jacksonville is around −2.5 to −3 and has already been in country a week.

Mac starts from the number itself: "Just look at the line. This is a neutral — if anything it's a London home game for the Jaguars — and it's 2.5. So maybe it's a 1.5-point power ratings difference. The Jags are maybe the best team in the AFC to begin the year, very hard strength of schedule, and they're 4-1. And the Texans are about two points worse than them. That means they're an above-average, good-enough-to-make-the-playoffs type team. I think they're a top-five team in the AFC, probably top four."

📊 The nfelo Nugget

Mac: "One of my favorite power ratings sites, because it's completely cold — it's just a weighting of EPA — is nfelo. And it's interesting: the Texans are actually better on a power-ratings basis than they started the year, by about a half point. They're 2.5 points better than an average team."

"I don't know if I buy that. But C.J. Stroud has been a lot better than people estimated. They're as good as they were to start the year. They just lost close games. And people are to blame for that — they've already changed defensive play callers."

Scott: "The Texans at 1-4 still grade out as one of the top teams in the NFL by the metrics. They're a lot better than their 1-4 record. I think they win outright in London."

Houston to make the playoffs: +198 on FanDuel.

🎲 The Bills Stayed Out West

Buffalo did not fly home after Monday night at the Rams. They stayed on the West Coast all week ahead of Las Vegas. Bills −5.5 at the Raiders.

Mac: "That's the first I've heard of it, and I'm mad I didn't hear about it when it was 4.5 — because the Bills are going to absolutely destroy this team. They have the second minicamp. They have the 'we made it, guys, past the Rams,' and then you get to play in a Super Bowl-like setting on a neutral field versus the Raiders. I was leaning the Bills before. I love the stay-on-the-West-Coast and have that second minicamp. It makes it seem like an event."

⚾ THE DODGERS ARE ONE LOSS FROM BEING SWEPT

🍺 NLCS Game 3: Brewers 6, Dodgers 2 — Milwaukee leads 3-0

A 2-1 Dodger lead in the seventh became a 6-2 loss, and Los Angeles is now a game from the most jarring exit in recent memory.

The first pitch of the game set the tone

Jackson Chourio led off the game by hammering Blake Snell's very first pitch out of the park. The 22-year-old has now homered to lead off twice in this series — both times on the first pitch he saw.

The Chourio record book:

• Six leadoff home runs this postseason — a Brewers single-postseason record
• Three career postseason leadoff homers — tied for second in MLB playoff history with Shohei Ohtani, Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins (Kyle Schwarber leads with five)
• His latest leadoff homer came exactly one year after he led off Game 2 of the 2025 NLCS with one

Snell was untouchable in between

He retired 14 straight batters through the sixth. And here's the number that makes this a genuinely shocking outing: Snell had not allowed a home run in 46⅓ innings coming into the game. Then he gave up three in one night.

📉 The Dodgers' Offense Has Simply Stopped

They had runners on base in all but three innings. Freddie Freeman went 0-for-4. Mookie Betts 1-for-5.

And then there's the lineup card. Shohei Ohtani batted sixth — his lowest spot in the order since he joined the Dodgers. He went 1-for-2 with a single scorched at 113.5 mph, plus a walk and a hit by pitch, which is actually a sign of life after an 0-for-4 in Game 2.

📌 The History

• Only the 2004 Red Sox have ever come back from 0-3 in a best-of-seven.
• The Brewers have never beaten the Dodgers in a playoff series — and Los Angeles swept them in last year's NLCS.

🕵️ THE CONSPIRACY CORNER

Scott floated a theory and Mac did not need convincing.

Scott: "Is the Brewers winning the best thing that could happen for the Los Angeles Dodgers? Because of the labor dispute about to occur in Major League Baseball with the collective bargaining agreement and the desire for a salary cap.If the Dodgers get swept and we have a World Series of Milwaukee versus Cleveland, or Milwaukee versus Tampa — isn't that the best argument against putting in a salary cap? 'What do you mean small-market teams can't compete?'"

Mac, flatly: "As a principle, yes. Open your eyes."

Then he improved on it: "It's not about this World Series. It's about the next five World Series, if we're able to just outspend everybody."

Scott: "It's about taking a sabbatical. You've already won a couple in a row. You take a sabbatical, you lose this year, you win next year and the year after. Four in five years you're a dynasty."

For the record, this is a bit. Probably.

🔜 Tonight

📌 Note: Game 4 at Dodger Stadium was moved up to 5 PM PT because of expected weather affecting ALCS Game 3 in Cleveland. Live model has the Dodgers around 59% tonight and the Guardians around 54%.

🏀 NBA TIPS OFF TUESDAY — AND MAC HAS THOUGHTS

The 2026-27 season starts next week. Scott and Mac will do a full NBA segment on Sunday night for Monday's pod, but Mac gave a preview of where his head is.

The tanking call he made last year — and nailed

Mac: "I went on Mitch Moss's show and said: hey guys, this is unheard of — they're getting rid of tanking, so they're going to tank harder than ever. So bet all the bad teams to go over, because they're not going to play defense."

It played out exactly. "There was the most tanking ever. The worst distance net-rating-wise — the best teams were like twenty points better on average than the worst teams toward the end of the year."

The hope for this season: "With the flattening of the draft, that's hopefully completely out the window. And we get back to handicapping — who's better than whom on a given day. That's what I like about the NBA."

🏆 Teams nobody is talking about

• 🔥 The Heat and Giannis. "Five years ago, everyone told me Giannis was the best player they'd ever seen, best player in the league. No one's talking about the Heat."
• 🦖 The Raptors and Kawhi. "No one's talking about the Raptors, really. And Kawhi Leonard — last time he went there, won a championship."
• 🔔 The Sixers, where he's selectively contrarian: "I'm pessimistic on every one of them except Joel Embiid, who's their best player, and who I've always been a little more optimistic on than the market. But that's still five guys. VJ Edgecombe — maybe he's the third-best player in his class, but he's still a guy, and they're going to put it all together."

⭐ Mac's lean on opening night

Sixers +5 at the Knicks

Mac: "The fact that they're five-point dogs to the Knicks — I think that's a closer game, at least on paper. The Knicks will take their championship banner night and everything. But I'd lean towards the Sixers in the first game."

🚀 LAUNCHING THIS WEEKEND: THE REMODELED NBA FIRST QUARTER / FIRST HALF DATABASE

We tweeted a preview yesterday.

Mac: "I've never seen these stats anywhere. I've never seen anyone attempt it."

What's in it

The game-day side:

• Prop projections
• Full schedule with game boards and where the best lines are, book by book

The first quarter / first half database:

Click into any team for full game logs.

Mac: "Not only is there the first-level stuff I'd think of — it's every iteration down to the player level"

📍 Live this weekend on BettorDay.com and the Bettor Day mobile app, ahead of Tuesday's tip-off. Become a Bettor Day Insider or Premium member to get it. Compare tiers →

📅 Coming Up

• 📺 Today, 2 PM ET: The Bettor Day Football Show streams live — Scott, Steve Fezzik and AJ Hoffman on all things NFL and college football
• ⚾ Tonight: NLCS Game 4 (Dodgers facing elimination, 5 PM PT) and ALCS Game 3 in Cleveland
• 🏀 Tuesday: The 2026-27 NBA season tips off