TNF Preview, QB Changes & CFB Injury News

Scott Seidenberg and Evan Daniel preview Ravens & Jaguars with some prop angles for a Same Game Parlay and talk about the Quarterback changes this week in the NFL and how the market has reacted. Plus a big injury in College Football moves the number.

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🐦‍⬛ THURSDAY NIGHT: HOW TO ACTUALLY PLAY THE RAVENS GAME

Jacksonville is laying 9.5 to 10 on the road. Evan's framing up front:

"There are so many different ways this game can go, and looking in-game is probably the safest way to play — because we really have no idea how, on a short week, he's going to come out. Is this going to be the guy who threw for ninety yards basically in garbage time last week? Or does he surprise us, maybe hit Zay Flowers over the middle, Flowers takes it 75 yards to the house, and all of a sudden the crowd is going wild?"

📊 First, the history: Baltimore has almost never been here

Evan's recall: the last time the Ravens were dogs by this much at home was December 2021 — and, perfectly, it was Tyler Huntley's first start. They were 9.5-point dogs against Green Bay. They lost the game but covered, and put up 30 points.

And Scott pulled the full list. Baltimore as a home dog of 10 or more has happened exactly four times:

All time, as a home dog of 10+: 2-1-1 ATS.

Small sample, obviously, and this situation is its own animal. But it's the kind of context that tells you the market is in genuinely unfamiliar territory.

⭐ EVAN'S PUSHBACK ON THE WILDCAT

Fiddle floated it Tuesday. Bearman found the Dolphins precedent Wednesday. Evan is the first person on this pod to find the flaw, and it's a good one.

⭐ "The Bucs were able to do that because they were picking up first downs on every other play. If Jacksonville is only giving up three and a half yards per carry — fine, you'll have fourth-and-one or a first down on third down and you'll be just fine. But that really comes down to game script. If they run on first down and second down and you end up with third-and-six, what are you supposed to do? If you run Henry out of a Wildcat on third-and-six, you're probably not getting very far."

And the specific scouting point underneath it: "Henry hasn't been great in short-yardage situations a few times already this year. He's been better in the first quarter, better overall in the first half of games. But on short yardage, I don't know that that can really be the game script — unless the game stays really low scoring, a one-possession game, you're playing the field position, the defense is holding up."

So the Wildcat plan isn't a game plan. It's a game plan that only survives if it's already working.

⭐ "If you're watching and the game is really low scoring and it's 10-6 at halftime, then the script SHOULD continue to be a heavy dose of Derrick Henry. But what have we seen from Baltimore? Even when they have big leads, they sometimes forget about Henry in the second half."

🔴 Scott's live-betting trigger stands

"If we see the Ravens line up and in their first possession it's seven runs and one pass, and in their second possession it's six runs and no passes — I feel like we should be live betting based on that, because that might tell us their game plan is to run the ball the entire game, whether it's effective or not. I think the first two drives will tell us everything we need to know."

⭐ PLAY ONE: DERRICK HENRY UNDER RUSHING YARDS (69.5)

Evan: "I know it sounds obvious. But maybe it doesn't sound so obvious because of the reasons you mentioned — maybe they just give Henry the ball 25 times. I don't think that'll be the case. I think they run him early, I don't think there'll be that much success, unless he breaks a big run early."

And he rejected the idea that Jacksonville just sits on a lead: "I don't think Jacksonville is a team that just wants to go away and let the clock run out. They are trying to win the game."

⭐⭐ THE HEDGE: HENRY LONGEST RUSH OVER 13.5

Evan's reasoning:

⭐ "That might be the play. Because if you think he's going to get a lot of usage, he might go for three yards a carry — 2.9, 3.4, 3.6. But if there's one run that he can get, that's that fourteen-yard run. Go for his longest rush to get over 13.5. Because the fear on the under 69.5 rushing yards IS that one run he breaks early in the game, where the game script for the entire first half is still give him the ball. Theoretically, for two or three drives, he can get twelve carries. And all it takes is one break where it's thirteen, fourteen yards — one pop — and you get to go home."

Read those two plays together. The under needs Henry to be inefficient on volume. The thing that kills the under is one explosive run. So you buy the longest-rush over as insurance against the exact outcome that beats your main position — and if he grinds out 2.9 a carry all night, the under cashes and you lose the cheap hedge. 

⭐ PLAY TWO: JUSTICE HILL OVER RECEIVING

The usage is the whole argument:

Evan: "In a pass-heavier script for Baltimore — eight targets for Justice Hill. Theoretically I only need two catches in those eight targets to go over 14.5 receiving. He had four catches on those eight targets for 20 yards. I wouldn't mind playing him at 20+ if there are better odds for that price. I think Hill, if he's targeted even five or six times, can easily get to 15 to 20 yards, if not more."

🔄 THE BRISSETT TRADE CHANGES SCOTT'S READ

Baltimore traded for Jacoby Brissett yesterday.

Scott: "At least that's a stopgap measure. Brissett obviously gives them a better chance to win than the third-stringer, and I think he gives them a better chance to win than Tyler Huntley."

His playoff math, restated from Monday: if Lamar misses five weeks and Baltimore goes 3-2, they're 7-6 with four division games left — Steelers twice, plus Bengals and Browns. "If Lamar comes back for those four games, you might only need to go 3-1 to make the playoffs as a 10-win team in the AFC. So what if they're better than 3-2 in the next five?"

⭐ "I actually like the Ravens even MORE tonight in the wake of that trade — because if they didn't trade for a quarterback, the team might be thinking: we're going into see-you-next-season mode."

Evan: "That's a great point." And his number discipline on it: "Make sure you get a ten and not a nine and a half."

📊 POWER RATINGS: EVAN vs. FEZZIK

Two of our contributors, two different boards. Worth seeing side by side.

The disagreement is Seattle: third for Fezzik, ninth for Evan. "I am not impressed with what I've seen out of Sam Darnold."

⭐ On the Bears — the Simmons trade, properly credited

⭐ "I love the Bears. That's Simmons' trade. I mentioned this to you last week when the trade happened — that trade is massive. He had a monster game last week. And what doesn't show up in the box score are the times that he was double-teamed. That team is an actual contender right now."

On the 49ers, with a condition

"If Bosa and Deebo are out, they're nowhere near that. That's a HEALTHY team that's ranked second."

⭐ On Jacksonville — the weakness nobody's been naming

This is the most useful thing in the segment, because the whole league is talking about Jacksonville's run defense:

⭐ "I'm concerned about their secondary. I know their run defense is great — yards per carry, they're number one in the league. But yards per attempt, they're down in the low 20s. They're not very good against the pass, especially in that secondary. Travis Hunter has played a lot better lately, and on both sides of the ball Hunter's been a factor. But until I see more out of that secondary, I'm not ready to put Jacksonville in that top two or three."

And he's not burying the Rams

"I'm not throwing the Rams away. Their special teams continue to be brutal, the coaching hasn't been great — McVay has cost them a couple of games this year — and with Stafford, something's going on there. Their third-and-short is really bad: they had two third-and-twos in the first couple of drives last week and ended up punting on both. But I'm not willing to throw that team out."

🌵 SEAHAWKS −8.5 vs. CARDINALS: THE NUMBER HE WANTED IS GONE

The line was 11. It's now 8.5. Sam Darnold is out; Drew Lock starts. Arizona has traded Brissett away, so it's Minshew Mania, and their first-round running back is on IR — so last week's comeback backups are now the starters.

Evan: "I LOVED this line before the line move."

His confession first

"I got burned on this in week two. I overrated the Cardinals after they beat the Chargers. I overreacted to week one the wrong way — I thought maybe the Chargers are still okay, but maybe the Cardinals are better than I thought. Turns out the Chargers were just not what we thought, and the Cardinals are just not a very good football team. That line was four in week two."

⭐ The quarterback change is worth nothing

⭐ "Drew Lock and Darnold at this point — honestly, I don't think there's any real line move to be made."

Scott agreed: "There have been times Darnold's played so poorly this year that it had me thinking Drew Lock is probably just as good, if not better at times."

Evan: "One hundred percent. I was not ready to lower Seattle until I saw Darnold play again last week. And if Lock really is maybe better — because he certainly played better than Darnold in a small sample — perhaps I'm wrong."

The 11 was the thing that didn't make sense

"Seattle has absolutely dominated the last couple of games against Arizona. But I went back to last year, and one of the games that was a blowout at the end was only 7-7 at halftime, and Seattle pulled away late. I did not understand how that line ended up being eleven-plus. It really didn't make any sense to me."

His Arizona rating: "I have the Cardinals at the bottom of the league. The only teams I have behind them are the Colts, Titans and Dolphins. And that's with Minshew, and that's with the left tackle potentially injured and Michael Wilson injured. So I have them at minus 4.5. But I don't know how one gets to 11."

And the discipline at the current number: "Now at 8.5 I don't play it at all, because now I lost the number. Right now I'm looking at Seattle on a teaser side — but I'm probably not going to play the teaser anyway. I did like that line at 11.5. I just didn't understand that line where it was. And now I think the line makes more sense."

🦅 THE EAGLES ARE 0-8 ATS IN SECOND HALVES

Joe Milton is starting. Philadelphia is a 3 to 3.5-point home dog to the Giants. And then Evan dropped this:

⭐ "The Eagles, in eight games, are 0-8 against the spread in the second half this year. They have not covered a second half once. You could have rolled over starting week one and you'd be sitting pretty right now, going against the Eagles in the second half."

His attempt to explain it, and he dismisses the easy answer: "Is it because the team quits when they're behind? Is it coaching? I've heard a lot of people talk about adjustments. Let's be fair — halftime is fifteen minutes. By the time you get in and out of that locker room… adjustments should be made throughout the game, not just at halftime.The only thing I can think of is that it's a veteran team, Sirianni stinks, and they've kind of realized the season's over."

But the season isn't actually over

"The season's NOT over for the Eagles. I don't think the Eagles are making the playoffs — but it's not like the Giants, the Commanders or the Cowboys are running away with the division."

What a Milton spark could do: "Milton's got a cannon of an arm. Maybe Wicks comes back, maybe Smith is back this week — they were not at practice Wednesday. If they get their receivers back, if Saquon can stay healthy for maybe half a game instead of just a quarter of a game — you never know."

⭐ And the Giants deflation, with a receipt attached

Evan's read on who the Giants actually are:

• Blown out at home by New Orleans three weeks ago
• "This is a team that was 12-7 against Tennessee and they should have lost that game"
• "This team was a first-and-goal stop and a 99-yard pick six away from losing to Arizona at home"

And the receipt from two weeks ago on this very pod:

⭐ "At the end of our pod two weeks ago I told you I liked the Giants plus 10, because I did not understand why that line was 10 — McCarthy to Winston, there wasn't that much of a difference to me. Like the Darnold-Lock conversation. And you had Houston coming off a huge win in London, traveling back without a bye, off a divisional game. They were just asleep for that game."

So: "And now all of a sudden the Giants are three-point favorites on the road against the Eagles? Why? With McKee, I get it. But if Milton can be anything positive, this line can't be three. This line should be closer to a pick'em."

Scott's prop angle: "I'd be playing longest reception on like every Eagles receiver. We know Milton's got that cannon. He's going to be throwing the ball down the field, so this could be a breakout game for some of these receivers."

🏈 MALACHI TONEY IS OUT — AND NOTRE DAME IS NOW −7.5

Miami's star receiver and a Heisman favorite needs surgery for a high ankle sprain. He will not play Saturday.

Scott's framing of the move: "A wide receiver is not worth two points to the spread. But he absolutely affects this offense."

⭐ The committee argument, in its strongest form

Scott's case for the Irish has been building all week. Here it is fully assembled:

⭐ "The committee told Notre Dame you can't lose. That's literally what they said. The new Notre Dame rule this year was that you're guaranteed a playoff spot if you're top 12. Well — in our first ranking, we don't care that you're a one-loss team. We don't care that your one loss came when you had the football in a goal-to-go situation, where there should have been another second left on the clock, on the road at BYU, at a very difficult, impossible place to play, at elevation, at night. We don't care about that. We're ranking you eleventh because your schedule stinks."

And the consequence: "So if you lose to Miami, you're going to fall back and you're not going to be in the top 12 — and you don't have any good opponents left to try to get back into the top 12. So they're telling Notre Dame you can't lose. Now I'm playing a team that has its back against the wall in a must-win situation that is motivated and pissed off by the rankings and the committee."

Scott's number discipline: "I laid the 5.5 earlier in the week. At 7.5, I'd see if you can get a 7. I don't want to lay 7.5."

🔴 EVAN'S COLLEGE LIVE ANGLE: YARDS OVERS WHEN TEAMS ARE BEHIND

⭐ "One of the things you can look for in these games is yards overs when these teams are behind. You get teams that are behind and they just move the ball at will. There are no player props — we can't look in-game at players — but the YARDS go crazy."

His receipts from last week: Texas State against Boise State "flew over," and the same thing happened in Iowa State–Oklahoma State late Saturday night.

And the game he's circling this week: Texas State at Oregon State, late Saturday night. "The defense is optional in that game. The line has already skyrocketed — it was 66 and now it's like 72 or 73."

⭐ THE BEST BET: JETS +10 vs. CHIEFS

Evan gave us the Giants +10 two weeks ago. Here's the other New York team.

⭐ "Explain to me how this line is ten. This line does not make any sense to me at ten."

Scott pushed back with the obvious: Aaron Glenn will probably mismanage something at the end of a half, and this is the Chiefs off two straight losses with Andy Reid looking to bounce back in a big way.

Evan granted it — and then went to the tape:

"Absolutely. But two years ago when these two teams played it was a 7.5 line, and the Chiefs ended the game with a long drive on a third-and-eight. Mahomes ran for nine yards and took a knee at the two. I could see the exact same thing happening here. The Chiefs know exactly how to win and finish these games."

The margin receipt:

⭐ "I'm not asking Aaron Glenn to win. I have no desire ever to bet on Aaron Glenn to win — and in about a month he probably won't be the coach, when the Jets somehow lose to the Dolphins on Thanksgiving weekend. But for the Chiefs to be favored by 10 implies they're almost two touchdowns better. I don't see that. I think the Jets are an average team — maybe slightly below average. But where are the Chiefs now, the top of the league? I don't have them in the top five. So 10 is a lot of points. I've got the Jets plus 10 this week."

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